Maxcyte Share Discussion Threads

[nanopayments] 08/3/2023 11:20

Hi Adam,

You write: "It won't take much to get it moving through as a result" This is one of the most asymmetric risk/reward situations I've seen in a while. Value is being created by steady and consistent 25%-30% annual growth, with an enormous catalyst which has a >90% probability of happening about 12 months away. It clear from DD comments that the company is being run with a post commercialisation strategy in mind, that these are the events that will really unlock value. That the market is seemingly ignoring this is a big opportunity IMO.

[nanopayments] 08/3/2023 10:58

Here's a link to the Q&A session. There's quite a bit of useful information I didn't post, so worth the listen:

investors.maxcyte.com/events/event-details/43rd-annual-cowen-healthcare-conference

[adamb1978] 08/3/2023 10:03

Thanks for posting that nanopayments. Nice comments to see and agree that its undervalued. I think it probably falls beneath the radar of funds in teh US, whilst in the UK investors dont like this sort of company. It won't take much to get it moving through as a result

[trident5] 08/3/2023 09:50

Is he buying then?

[nanopayments] 08/3/2023 09:32

Doug Doerfler in a Q&A yesterday with TD Cowen. TD Cowen says that if they assume zero commercialisation for any of MaxCyte's partner products their modeling suggests the stock is undervalued relative to peers, and severely undervalued if you take gross margins into consideration.

DD "I don't know what the value is, it seems unusually low to me right now"

He said this in the context of their long-term growth being around 25% - 30% per year means that they are doubling the throughput every three years.

TD Cowen: there are going to be some big catalysts coming soon (refering to exa-cell). We've heard from Vertex that they are very comfortable with the supply of the product once it gets approved (MaxCyte is the supplier).

DD, we've been working with Crispr and their SC drug since it was a whiteboard concept and the company was an early-stage startup. The Crispr license carried over into Vertex, which was great for our company. On seeing their clinical data, I got goosebumps.

Cowen on exa-cell: "Our biotech analysts pegged the chances of approval as upwards of 90%."

[nanopayments] 07/3/2023 09:05

Hi adam,

I agree that drug discovery is a more volatile business line. Probably worth waiting for the full breakdown before making any judgements, and I doubt we can extrapolate much of a trend in cell therapy from 6 months of data. However, there was a dip here in Q3 and I suspect that's also true of Q4. Here are the annual growth numbers for 2022 per quarter for cell therapy:
Q1: 57%
Q2: 61%
Q3: 27%

Still very early days in terms of the adoption of these treatments, so I do expect growth to accelerate again in coming quarters and years.

[adamb1978] 07/3/2023 08:49

Hi Nano

It fluctuates quite a bit partly driven by the drug discovery line, the last 7 quarters of which have been:

-2%
60%
22
-5%
23%
4%
13%

whereas the cell therapy line is a more gradual up and to the right shape (and which makes sense as more customers sign up to SPLs). Will be interesting to see whether that trend has continued when we see the full figures in 2 weeks time - I suspect it will have done.

Adam

[nanopayments] 07/3/2023 08:22

Q4 core business revenue growth is disappointing for me. There was a marked slowdown in H2 of last year. Here are the YoY growth numbers per quarter:

Q1: 48%
Q2: 45%
Q3: 22%
Q4: 4%

[adamb1978] 07/3/2023 06:58

Thanks for posting Dave.Good figures though the 'initial guidance' for 2023 looks as badly sandbagged as always!

[davep4] 06/3/2023 22:01

Full year 2022 total revenue expected to be approximately $44.3 million, representing growth of 31% over full year 2021
Fourth quarter 2022 total revenue expected to be approximately $12.4 million, representing growth of 22% over fourth quarter 2021
Installed base at year end 2022 of greater than 600 instruments compared to over 500 instruments at year end 2021
Total SPL partnerships of 18 at year end 2022, including 3 added in 2022; additional SPL partnership with Catamaran Bio signed in January 2023
Initial 2023 guidance for total revenue growth 21% to 26% over 2022, including core revenue growth of 20% to 25% over 2022, and SPL program-related revenue of approximately $6 million

[gsbmba99] 04/2/2023 11:14

Vertex and CRISPR published their own estimates of the cost of treating patients with transfusion dependent thalassemia ($138k per patient per year) and severe sickle cell disease ($5.2m over 35 years, undiscounted). and

[gsbmba99] 04/2/2023 11:05

The best guide for the likely cost of exa-cel (at least for the beta thalassemia side) is Bluebird's FDA approved lentiviral vector gene therapy for transfusion dependent thalassemia, Zynteglo (beti-cel), which has a list price of $2.8m ( ICER (Institute for Clinical and Economic Review) published a report on beti-cel using the previously rumoured list price and concluded: "Given the high annual costs of standard care, cost-effectiveness modeling finds that this new treatment meets commonly accepted value thresholds at an anticipated price of $2.1 million with an 80% payback option for patients who do not achieve and maintain transfusion independence over a five-year period" (

[nanopayments] 04/2/2023 10:52

This compares to a lifetime direct cost of treatment for Haemophilia of $28.5m according to Arkinvest. For Sickle Cell disease they calculate the lifetime cost of treatment to be $1,352,736 which is more relavent to MaxCyte near term given the focus on exa-cell approval.

[nanopayments] 04/2/2023 10:45

I agree with dave that you have to think of this as a "one-and-done" treatment and compare it to the total cost of treatment over many years. It is instructive to look at the price tag for treatments that have been approved: "On 22 November, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the first gene therapy for the genetic blood-clotting disorder haemophilia B—a one-time treatment that costs US$3.5 million."
scientificamerican.com/article/3-5-million-hemophilia-gene-therapy-is-worlds-most-expensive-drug/#:~:text=On%2022%20November%2C%20the%20US,that%20costs%20US%243.5%20million.

[davep4] 03/2/2023 15:49

I believe circa USD 250k - sounds expensive but when compared to the cost of a lifetime of treatment it's cost-effective.

But treatment costs will come down when gene therapy becomes mainstream.

[supernumerary] 02/2/2023 19:33

It'd be interesting to know what the treatment costs. Gene-editing is, as a general rule, very expensive, and take-up is correspondingly slow.

[adamb1978] 02/2/2023 18:06

Thats a good find. Hadn't seen that. I guess a lot of investors might have missed it either, or assumed that if it really changed the investment case for MXCT then they would have RNS'd it

[nanopayments] 02/2/2023 17:57

I find it really puzzling that the stock hasn't reacted to this news:

"Milestone for gene-edited therapy for sickle cell disease

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) and CRISPR Therapeutics have announced that the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has validated the Marketing Authorization Application of exa-cel for the treatment of sickle cell disease (SCD) and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia (TDT).

The submission is supported by two global phase 3 studies investigating exa-cel as a potential one-time therapy for people with SCD or TDT.

“Today marks a significant milestone in our efforts to bring a new one-time therapy to people living with sickle cell disease or transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia,” said Nia Tatsis, executive vice president, chief regulatory and quality officer.

“We look forward to working with the EMA on our application, the first for a CRISPR-based therapy for a genetic disease.”

Exa-cel has been granted Orphan Drug Designation from the European Commission, as well as Priority Medicines (PRIME) designation for both SCD and TDT from the EMA. Vertex has also begun the rolling Biologics License Application (BLA) submission to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and expects to complete the BLA by the end of the first quarter."
labiotech.eu/trends-news/milestone-gene-edited-therapy-sickle-cell-disease/

[adamb1978] 02/2/2023 16:31

Yes, think there's little/no chance that they don't hit their figures. The commentary and forward looking bit, as well as the call, will be the most interesting parts

[davep4] 01/2/2023 23:57

Between 3 January 2023 and 5 January 2023, Doug Doerfler, Chief Executive Officer, exercised options over 30,000 shares of common stock which were then sold at a price range between of $5.04 and $5.13

In light of the foregoing it will be very disappointing if the results do not meet market expectations!

[davep4] 01/2/2023 23:51

MaxCyte to Report Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Financial Results on March 15, 2023

[adamb1978] 31/1/2023 17:00

Sorry, 24th Jan last year was a trading statement with 2021 turnover and KPIs etcWould be nice to get that soon, ideally with some guidance for 2023

[trident5] 31/1/2023 15:40

Unaudited Q4 and FY was 24 January last year. Bad news travels slowly, I guess.