Maxcyte Share Discussion Threads

[adamb1978] 04/5/2023 13:13

Another SPL signed.

Not a big name, but sometimes earlier stage companies can adopt new technologies quicker so perhaps a good addition to the stable. The more the merrier!

[epicwarlock] 27/4/2023 17:14

Thank you Adam,I'm of a similar view and actually doubled down on my position today, making it the largest investment/ punt in my SIPP today next to 888.LSee this as a worthwhile 5-10yr holding with a realistic chance of 5-baggging or more if MXCT can deliver successfully on their pipeline.(Have to withdraw & apologize for my comments on recent share price volatility...when I wrote my previous post I'd just finished reviewing a presentation for TUNE, which had lost ~20% over 2 days, so I had those numbers in mind, rather than MXCT. I swear I've had "brain fog" ever since C19 lockdown ?)GLA

[adamb1978] 27/4/2023 08:59

Hi Epic

I generally wouldnt worry about day to day fluctuations in MXCT's share price...or put another way, if the day to day fluctuations make you uncomfortable, then perhaps worth considering whether this is the right investment for you.

Personally I take a 3-5 year, or longer, view on this one and quite sanguine about shorter term movements and trying to guess might caused it. I'm not in this to make 30% or 50% - more like 5x, 10x or 20x (from current levels).

Nearer term than that, I think we'll see approval for exa-cel come through late this year, a handful more SPLs, turnover grinding higher by another 25%-35% and some flatlining in the cost base. On top of that, news of another FDA submission by one of its customers would be great or the various other blue-birds

Adam

[epicwarlock] 26/4/2023 15:59

I mean price above....typo!

[epicwarlock] 26/4/2023 15:58

Any thoughts on the drifting price this week?I'm holding this in the higher risk section of my portfolio with the hope that it could multibagThe next 6-12 months will hopefully provide some clarity on the likelihood of the R&D pipelineThe investment in their new facility as well as chunky buy by the Chairman at a price below todays bode well. Equally, nursing the losses as of today without associated newsflow is not comfortableGLA

[nanopayments] 24/4/2023 08:22

The drug discovery business, cells as factories, is about 3X smaller with much lumpier growth, than the gene therapy business, cells as medicine. However, Doug Doerfler has hinted on a couple of conference calls, that drug discovery will become a more important revenue driver in the future. I'm fairly sure he was thinking of the VLx and the opportunity with monoclonal antibodies. Manufacturing proteins synthetically has already created biotech giants, just look at what happened to the growth and market cap of Genentech after it mastered a technique to make synthetic insulin.

[adamb1978] 23/4/2023 11:32

Thanks Nano. SOmetimes its very easy to look at a small company and see limitations in its prospects due to it being limited to a single product (or product family) but then they gradually expand and find more and more legs for growth

[nanopayments] 21/4/2023 15:18

"Over the past five years, antibodies have become the best-selling drugs in the pharmaceutical market, and in 2018, eight of the top ten bestselling drugs worldwide were biologics. The global therapeutic monoclonal antibody market was valued at approximately US$115.2 billion in 2018 and is expected to generate revenue of $150 billion by the end of 2019 and $300 billion by 2025. Thus, the market for therapeutic antibody drugs has experienced explosive growth as new drugs have been approved for treating various human diseases, including many cancers, autoimmune, metabolic and infectious diseases."
hxxps://jbiomedsci.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12929-019-0592-z

[nanopayments] 21/4/2023 15:00

I hadn't realised that the move to develop the production of monoclonal antibodies with the VLx came at the request of MaxCyte's customers:

"In fact, in addition to the company’s leading cell therapy platform, MaxCyte is planning to develop a new approach into monoclonal antibodies. Doerfler said this move is being made at the request of the company’s partners who are looking for a new approach with this modality."
myemail.constantcontact.com/Why-It-s-Better-Here-Featuring-MaxCyte.html?soid=1130486348250&aid=ooOoP9wVVSM

[nanopayments] 15/4/2023 07:36

From ArkInvest stock commentary:

"Shares of CRISPR Therapeutics traded up ~16% on Thursday after investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald suggested that the U.S. Food Drug Administration (FDA) is highly likely to approve its Exa-cel, a CRISPR/Cas9-based gene therapy for the treatment of sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia. According to Cantor, if approved, Exa-cel could command a $1.9 million price tag, comparable to a rival sickle cell therapy from Bluebird Bio. CRISPR Therapeutics develops CRISPR/Cas9-based gene-editing treatments for serious diseases."

[adamb1978] 04/4/2023 09:21

Vertex filing completed. 8 month time for the review if its granted priority status. Otherwise 12 months. Potentially a huge value catalyst therefore in 2023

hxxps://investors.vrtx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vertex-and-crispr-therapeutics-complete-submission-rolling

[nanopayments] 30/3/2023 17:04

My guess would be that the Chairman purchase and Form 4 triggered some algorithmic buying. I'd expect there to be some speculative buying ahead of the FDA decision, rather than the filing, but that won't be until towards the end of the year. The last brokerage note I saw was Stephens & Co who reiterated their overweight rating and maintained their $12 price target, but that was 2 days ago, so probably didn't cause the rise today. We are also seeing a much bigger move in the UK, where volumes are much lower than on the Nasdaq, so it takes a lot less buying to move the stock up.

[adamb1978] 30/3/2023 16:27

Wonder whether the rise today is linked to the Chairman purchase or some other news (or equally nothing). Pleasing either way.

The Vertex FDA submission re exa-cel was meant to be completed by the end of March, so perhaps linked to that?

[elsa7878] 30/3/2023 15:10

300,000 already traded on the Nasdaq....very much the secondary market here.

[nanopayments] 30/3/2023 14:26

Your welcome elsa! I think you picked a really good time to begin scaling in, assuming we aren't on the brink of another financial crisis or other ugly macro event.

[elsa7878] 30/3/2023 14:21

Yes- thanks Nano. I have been going thru the September Trinity Delta document it's clear that commercialisation will be the key tipping point. That's why it was my intention to slowly built a position over the year to capture the additional SPL's and the key authorisation / commercialisation news in late 23/ early 24.

[nanopayments] 30/3/2023 14:14

R&D as a percent of revenues rose from 33% in 2021, to 46% in 2022. Even for a tech/biotech company that is extraordinarily high. R&D spending was higher than either sales and marketing or general and administrative. If they decided to cut R&D, which is largely discretionary though necessary to stay ahead of the competition, MaxCyte would be operating at breakeven. If:when exa-cell gets approved, nobody will be talking about cash burn.

[elsa7878] 30/3/2023 13:18

80k at $4.32 = $345,000

[adamb1978] 30/3/2023 12:56

Nice $320k purchase by the Chairman!

hxxps://www.investegate.co.uk/maxcyte--inc./mxct/director-pdmr-shareholding/202303301246238160U/?fe=1&utm_source=FE%20Investegate%20Alerts&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=Announcement%20Alert%20Mail&utm_campaign=MaxCyte,+Inc.%20Alert#

[elsa7878] 30/3/2023 12:56

$350,000 director purchase at 350p approx. Clearly confident.

[adamb1978] 30/3/2023 12:47

Where are you getting $36m cash burn from? It sounds way too high.

Cash reduced by $28m in 2022, and that was including building out their new facility. Capex will be quite a bit lower this year - my guess is that burn will be in the $15m - $20m range. COuld potentially be a little more if these is some capex from their new place creeping into 2023 but cant see how it would ever get to $36m

Also need to note that if you look at the quarterly evolution of sales & marketing, and also G&A, the rate of growth is/has slowed substantially after they scaled up the business in 2021 and H1 2022. and then if you want to translate that to cash, you need to exclude things like D&A and share based payments

[elsa7878] 30/3/2023 12:18

Thank you. I see that the projected cash burn is expected to increase again this year. Do you know how more investment is required (inc in people)going forward.
$36 million burn this year on $58 million in sales. ie costs of circa $94 million.
Assuming a further 25% CAGR in revenue in 2024 then and if costs are held to a 5% increase then it still means cash burn of nearly $25 million....it's all very well having heaps of cash...it doesn't mean you need to spend it!
Appreciate your insight.

[adamb1978] 28/3/2023 19:00

Hi Elsa - welcome. MXCT is one of my holdings for the long-term which I think has a viable chance of 10-bagging or more. 2023 could be a big year for MXCT with the Vertex approval from the FDA possibly coming in Q4. And in the meantime they continue to build the pipeline of SPLs which pay the annual licence fees and build up that recurring base.

Expect volatility, but these are swimming in cash which limits the downside

Adam

[elsa7878] 28/3/2023 16:05

Bit of volume today. Still trying to clear a seller. Think this is one to add slowly over the course of the year. I'm just getting to grips with it and have made a small initial purchase. Yes the CFO seems to know his way around a Biotech boardroom.

[adamb1978] 28/3/2023 08:03

New CFO sounds like a very good appointment. Given his background, he would have had multiple different ways he could take his career and opportunities for CFO roles