Maxcyte Share Discussion Threads

[pob69] 06/4/2022 10:54

New Trinity note

Sustained FY21 growth with significantly more potential

Target price £10.50

[gsbmba99] 23/3/2022 19:12

I think it's interesting that the business model isn't yet set for the VLx machine. The commentary around understanding customer pain points and sharing in the gains makes it sound as if some type of royalty might be achievable (or at least it hasn't yet been ruled out).

[apad] 23/3/2022 09:34

Good comments, nanopayments.

I liked the interesting point about competition.
"There's a lot of noise out there but we aren't feeling an impact on the business"

apad

[nanopayments] 23/3/2022 08:56

Good to see that despite the anticipated slowdown in core revenue, expectations are that SPL milestones will increase this year, maintaining total revenue growth of around 30%. Interesting to hear Amanda Murphy say on the call that they are now seeing interest from new potential SPL customers in Asia and the 50 addtional SPLs may be conservative. The new slide (14) in their most recent deck gives some good colour. There were 20 milestone payments from 2017 to 2021, with just 5% of those being the biggest (pivotal) type. They expect the number of total payments to more than double, to 50 in the following 2 years, so in half the time and for the percent of pivotal payments to rise to 25%, so from 1 in the last 4 years, to 12 in the next 2.

I was also a little surprised by how optimistic Doug Doerfler sounded on drug discovery. The recent sharp drop in the share price suggested that this is a broken growth story. That's clearly not the case.

[trident5] 23/3/2022 07:57

Whoop whoop - SPL pre commercial milestones are now up to $1.25 billion!

2021 SPL revenue: $2.5million down 24% on 2020.

Operating expenses up from $34.5m to $48.4m, but CARMA spend down by $5.8m. So, like-for -like operating spend up from $28.7m to $48.4m.

Stock based compensation up from $2.5m to $8.0m - that's 24 cents of every dollar of revenue being paid out in stock compensation.

[edwardt] 18/3/2022 13:54

Vlx seems super exciting to me. Some of the science is beyond me but it seems like it is opening a new world of possibilities for the industry. Great interview- looking forward to the results

[nanopayments] 11/3/2022 06:56

Doug Doerfler on the Cowen call talking about how the VLx will be used in bioprocessing: "We think we're going to do the same thing as we did in cell therapy, which is standardise the large-scale manufacture of biologics with the MaxCyte platform. We're really appreciative of the opportunity to play in such an important part of the industry."

[sharesoc] 10/3/2022 22:02

In case you missed our webinar with MaxCyte (MXCT), the recording can be found on our YouTube channel:

[gsbmba99] 10/3/2022 17:56

I've seen a couple of recent interviews with Doug and his face lights up when asked about the new VLx machine which is officially launching later this year. After a minute or two on it's disruptive potential in large scale bioprocessing, he realises he's been uncharacteristically upbeat and comes back to reduce expectations back down to nothing. I'm very interested to see how the VLx develops especially where the commercial model ends up. It would be nice to capture a share of the value created for the customer if the VLx is indeed as much of a breakthrough as Doug says it is.

From the Trinity Delta report: "We continue to believe that MaxCyte remains well positioned to benefit from the evolution and maturation of the advanced cell therapy field. The release of VLx in late 2021 and its pending commercial launch not only provides access to a new market segment, as its ability to transfect up to c 200 billion cells (ten times the number of cells and/or volume of the GTx/STx) in less than 30 minutes is highly applicable to bioprocessing, but will also facilitate rapid manufacture of clinical trial material for pivotal studies and future commercial supply. As MaxCyte is currently working towards securing GMP compliance for the VLx and associated consumables as well as working with beta partners to build out supporting application data in large-scale bioprocessing, we believe the potential for meaningful revenue generation from the VLx opportunity is from 2024 onwards."

[al101uk] 10/3/2022 15:39

Trinity Delta report out:

"MaxCyte’s NASDAQ IPO heralds the start of a new era. Cash of c $256m (at end-Q321) will fund investment in consolidating and expanding its leading position in non-viral cell delivery and engineering. Increased pipeline visibility under its 16 current Strategic Platform Licences (SPLs), with four secured in 2021 and one YTD in 2022, increases confidence of a significant step up in potential revenue growth from 2023+ as milestone receipts start to smooth and more meaningfully augment core recurring revenues from instrument leases and disposable sales. MaxCyte is well funded to invest in its technologies and processes, including expansion into potential new applications and markets, and manufacturing scale-up in anticipation of partner product launches. Our valuation is £1.06bn ($1.37bn) or 1,045p/$13.58 per share."

[nanopayments] 10/3/2022 15:00

Trinity Delta estimate that SPL milestones could represent $22.5m in 2022/3. "Only" 15 SPLs have been signed so far. On page 14 of their report Trinity Delta write:

" At the time of the IPO, management estimated that the c 50 potential SPL partners (ie companies currently developing engineered cell therapies) will more than double
to c 140 by 2026 based on its assessments of cell therapy pipeline growth, the rate of new therapeutic delivery entrants onto the market, and the ongoing industry shift towards non-viral delivery (Exhibit 10)."

Gulp.

[nanopayments] 10/3/2022 11:40

Amanda Murphy on this recent Cowen call (around the 13:30 mark) says that the "next 12 to 18 months will be quite strong from the milestone perpective."

wsw.com/webcast/cowen108/mxct/2036556

[nanopayments] 10/3/2022 11:01

Thanks for pointing this out. I don't think any of the potential milestones is being reflected in their forecast. They estimate that total revenue will grow 25% in 2022, after 28% in 2021. So if their forecast for 2022 includes some milestone payments, they must also believe that core revenue growth will decelerate. That seems inconsistent with the tone of the report.

[gsbmba99] 09/3/2022 18:45

Trinity Delta have published a new note. Interestingly, there's an estimate of the potential milestone stack which could fall due in 22e and 23e. This amounts to up to $22.5m across the two years ($10.5m in 22 and $12m in 23) assuming continued progress of all in progress programs on the current timelines. A significant element of the total is represented by potential approvals for CTX001 in sickle cell and beta thalassemia at $3.5m for each indication. Given that the core business was annualising at $40m in Q421 (core revenue >$10m in Q4) and Lala's 22e revenue estimate is $42.5m, it would appear that a relatively small portion of the potential milestones are currently reflected in the forecast.

Health warning from the note on the near-term milestone stack: "However, we draw attention to several important caveats: SPL deal economics are not explicitly broken out and there may be differences both between and within SPLs; the precise quantum of each milestone is unknown; and timing of receipt is difficult to predict as the triggering event is undisclosed and/or timelines may shift. Due to limited disclosure, this illustration does not include all assets under SPLs, nor does it encompass the later clinical and regulatory stages (except for CTX001) which largely fall outside the time horizon considered."

[edwardt] 01/3/2022 17:20

jam today for those brave enough to get involved.

[lancasterbomber] 01/3/2022 15:56

Well this is recovering well

[trident5] 23/2/2022 17:43

Market sentiment has shifted away from jam tomorrow story stocks.

It will only go back up if sentiment shifts back or the fundamentals start to deliver. The latter is uncertain and some way off.

[jones1961] 23/2/2022 09:04

I´m not worried about the short term price action. the top 12 institutional shareholders have 52mln shares between them (most recent announced are Blackrock with 6.62% at the end of last year, and yesterday Vitruvian announced a 4.01% stake). There are approx 100mln shares in issue.As of 31st January there was a short in the mkt of 3.15mln shares.

Average daily volume is about 800,000. Most of this is prob algorithmic trading/ day trading.

If you believe in the company just sit back…it will go up just as quickly, if not quicker, than it has come down.

[trident5] 22/2/2022 12:16

Putin perhaps?

[thetrotsky] 22/2/2022 11:40

Bit perplexed why MXCT should be trading over 6% down this morning. The US markets were closed yesterday for Presidents' Day and I can't see any overnight news that might be related to MXCT. The UK market usually treads water until the US market opens or adjusts to price movemnets in the US after the UK market closes.

[gsbmba99] 17/2/2022 12:39

CRSPR reported results the other day. CTX001 pivotal trials for sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia are fully enrolled (45 patients each for SCD and beta thalassemia or 90 total) and 70 patients had been dosed across the two studies. For CTX001, "regulatory submissions planned for late 2022" which could result in an approval in late 2023 (possibly a bit earlier if the therapy is entitled to a more rapid review from the FDA). CTX110 (CD19 CAR-T) is also in a pivotal trial and enrollment is ongoing with additional data expected in 2022. CTX120 and CTX130 are in dose escalation Phase 1. The pre-commercial milestones grow as the therapy advances to approval. Assuming $15m in milestones per therapy, it's possible that a successful pivotal trial could be a $2-3m event and an approval could be a further $5-7m (in total, across multiple jurisdictions). If Allogene restarts ALLO501A by mid year as anticipated, MXCT would have 3 partner drugs in pivotal trials (a trial expected to result in a regulatory submission).

[edwardt] 15/2/2022 21:51

Fair enough.

[pogue] 15/2/2022 21:12

What are guaranteed earnings though? That is what people will be looking at not how much its fallen. The market is not looking at future possible profits only certainties just now and even them that is being discounted in some stocks in the sector. Who knows where the bottom is but you need a market investing in future profits to be interested in buying here.
I will leave you with that, I am not progressing the conversation, and nor are you we have said our pieces, I will wait and see what happens.
Good luck.

[edwardt] 15/2/2022 17:24

Ev is down 75% from top - I don't see that as optimistic! Rally chances here are strong imo.