Maxcyte Share Discussion Threads

[nanopayments] 10/3/2022 15:00

Trinity Delta estimate that SPL milestones could represent $22.5m in 2022/3. "Only" 15 SPLs have been signed so far. On page 14 of their report Trinity Delta write:

" At the time of the IPO, management estimated that the c 50 potential SPL partners (ie companies currently developing engineered cell therapies) will more than double
to c 140 by 2026 based on its assessments of cell therapy pipeline growth, the rate of new therapeutic delivery entrants onto the market, and the ongoing industry shift towards non-viral delivery (Exhibit 10)."

Gulp.

[nanopayments] 10/3/2022 11:40

Amanda Murphy on this recent Cowen call (around the 13:30 mark) says that the "next 12 to 18 months will be quite strong from the milestone perpective."

wsw.com/webcast/cowen108/mxct/2036556

[nanopayments] 10/3/2022 11:01

Thanks for pointing this out. I don't think any of the potential milestones is being reflected in their forecast. They estimate that total revenue will grow 25% in 2022, after 28% in 2021. So if their forecast for 2022 includes some milestone payments, they must also believe that core revenue growth will decelerate. That seems inconsistent with the tone of the report.

[gsbmba99] 09/3/2022 18:45

Trinity Delta have published a new note. Interestingly, there's an estimate of the potential milestone stack which could fall due in 22e and 23e. This amounts to up to $22.5m across the two years ($10.5m in 22 and $12m in 23) assuming continued progress of all in progress programs on the current timelines. A significant element of the total is represented by potential approvals for CTX001 in sickle cell and beta thalassemia at $3.5m for each indication. Given that the core business was annualising at $40m in Q421 (core revenue >$10m in Q4) and Lala's 22e revenue estimate is $42.5m, it would appear that a relatively small portion of the potential milestones are currently reflected in the forecast.

Health warning from the note on the near-term milestone stack: "However, we draw attention to several important caveats: SPL deal economics are not explicitly broken out and there may be differences both between and within SPLs; the precise quantum of each milestone is unknown; and timing of receipt is difficult to predict as the triggering event is undisclosed and/or timelines may shift. Due to limited disclosure, this illustration does not include all assets under SPLs, nor does it encompass the later clinical and regulatory stages (except for CTX001) which largely fall outside the time horizon considered."

[edwardt] 01/3/2022 17:20

jam today for those brave enough to get involved.

[lancasterbomber] 01/3/2022 15:56

Well this is recovering well

[trident5] 23/2/2022 17:43

Market sentiment has shifted away from jam tomorrow story stocks.

It will only go back up if sentiment shifts back or the fundamentals start to deliver. The latter is uncertain and some way off.

[jones1961] 23/2/2022 09:04

I´m not worried about the short term price action. the top 12 institutional shareholders have 52mln shares between them (most recent announced are Blackrock with 6.62% at the end of last year, and yesterday Vitruvian announced a 4.01% stake). There are approx 100mln shares in issue.As of 31st January there was a short in the mkt of 3.15mln shares.

Average daily volume is about 800,000. Most of this is prob algorithmic trading/ day trading.

If you believe in the company just sit back…it will go up just as quickly, if not quicker, than it has come down.

[trident5] 22/2/2022 12:16

Putin perhaps?

[thetrotsky] 22/2/2022 11:40

Bit perplexed why MXCT should be trading over 6% down this morning. The US markets were closed yesterday for Presidents' Day and I can't see any overnight news that might be related to MXCT. The UK market usually treads water until the US market opens or adjusts to price movemnets in the US after the UK market closes.

[gsbmba99] 17/2/2022 12:39

CRSPR reported results the other day. CTX001 pivotal trials for sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia are fully enrolled (45 patients each for SCD and beta thalassemia or 90 total) and 70 patients had been dosed across the two studies. For CTX001, "regulatory submissions planned for late 2022" which could result in an approval in late 2023 (possibly a bit earlier if the therapy is entitled to a more rapid review from the FDA). CTX110 (CD19 CAR-T) is also in a pivotal trial and enrollment is ongoing with additional data expected in 2022. CTX120 and CTX130 are in dose escalation Phase 1. The pre-commercial milestones grow as the therapy advances to approval. Assuming $15m in milestones per therapy, it's possible that a successful pivotal trial could be a $2-3m event and an approval could be a further $5-7m (in total, across multiple jurisdictions). If Allogene restarts ALLO501A by mid year as anticipated, MXCT would have 3 partner drugs in pivotal trials (a trial expected to result in a regulatory submission).

[edwardt] 15/2/2022 21:51

Fair enough.

[pogue] 15/2/2022 21:12

What are guaranteed earnings though? That is what people will be looking at not how much its fallen. The market is not looking at future possible profits only certainties just now and even them that is being discounted in some stocks in the sector. Who knows where the bottom is but you need a market investing in future profits to be interested in buying here.
I will leave you with that, I am not progressing the conversation, and nor are you we have said our pieces, I will wait and see what happens.
Good luck.

[edwardt] 15/2/2022 17:24

Ev is down 75% from top - I don't see that as optimistic! Rally chances here are strong imo.

[pogue] 12/2/2022 11:40

When they start paying is the problem I feel. None so far once there is more visibility buyers will come until then I think the market cap is still a little optimistic for this market. No one is buying future profit forecasts just now unless they are concrete I am afraid.

[nanopayments] 11/2/2022 17:26

Those milestones will be paid as customer drugs advance through the clinic. I'd imagine it's highly unlikely that all of them will reach commercialization, but I'm not sure it's even possible to guess what percentage will. However, 15 SPLs represent $1.25B. Doug Doerfler indicated in his most recent presentation that there are another 50+ SPLs in the pipeline. Not all of those will get signed and again, the ones that do may not get far into the clinic. Still, that's over 3X what has been signed so far. For a stock with a market cap of $663M, not much of those milestone payments and potential future milestone payments is being priced in. To say nothing of what happens when any of these drugs are approved and MaxCyte starts to get a percentage of sales.

[pogue] 11/2/2022 17:16

So potential payment maybe better? That explains why the share price is where it is. Once payments start rolling then there will be a rerate no one is buying shares in this sector, or many others, at the moment on potential earnings they want to see definites.

[edwardt] 11/2/2022 16:27

pending might be too strong a word given they are milestone payments.

[pogue] 11/2/2022 15:01

Can you define pending? Is that waiting for payment or waiting for results from the companies that bought the machines that justify the milestone payments before paying. One is definite the other is a maybe.

[nanopayments] 10/2/2022 14:05

sebass, his only comment was that current expectations are for their drug (CTX001) to get FDA approval and be commercialized in 2023/4.

[sebass] 10/2/2022 13:59

nanopayments did Doug make any comment regarding the two trials CRSP and Allo are conducting?

[nanopayments] 09/2/2022 17:26

Doug Doerfler indicated there are now 50+ SPLs in the pipeline. Not sure if this is new news. It was a fairly standard MaxCyte investor presentation. However, the general feeling I got was that he is incredibly excited about the future of cell therapy as a whole and MaxCyte in particular and that these are still very early days. As more therapies enter the clinic and we near commercialization of CTX001 in 2023 or 2024 we will start to see revenue from milestones begin to ramp.