Maxcyte Share Discussion Threads

[adamb1978] 09/8/2021 21:34

Should hopefully ensure a nice bounce in the morning.

Volumes seem to be moving to the US from what I see?

[nimbo1] 09/8/2021 20:23

Ridiculous discount - £12 close in US

[assagai] 09/8/2021 08:13

As we are currently at a discount of appr £1 to the US close price I would expect a forward move as they absorb today's licence news.

Ho Hum, so there is still a disconnect..

[adamb1978] 09/8/2021 07:36

Another licensee win....keep em' coming!

[assagai] 09/8/2021 06:28

And very nicely up today it would seem!

[nimbo1] 06/8/2021 19:31

nicely up on nasdaq

[adamb1978] 05/8/2021 08:57

Its worth watching the volumes - just over 10% from memory of the share capital was listed in the US. Last 3m average daily volume in the UK is just over 150k shares and so far its 63k shares in the US. I imagine that US figure settle down but would be good to see it gradually grind higher

[trident5] 05/8/2021 08:57

Apad - the pattern is - they're both falling. You're welcome.

[thetrotsky] 05/8/2021 08:47

Apad, I wish I could. I appreciate that it's early days yet, but I'm just beginning to get the feeling that it's the UK market that is dictating MXCT's share price at the moment which was not what we were expecting/hoping. Thus far the US market has consistently opened below its previous day's closing price and followed the UK market down. Not sure whether the additional US shares given to the MMs have helped. We are, at least, still above the listing price but I'd rather hoped that we'd be trading towards the top of the $15-$20 price range. As it is, we finished just above $15 last night and, if this morning's UK market is anything to go by, look set to open in the $14s this afternoon.

[apad] 05/8/2021 07:50

The Trotsky, let us know if you spot a pattern between US & UK - I certainly can't!

apad

[assagai] 04/8/2021 06:48

Very useful and quick visual, thanks for posting.

[cooltools] 04/8/2021 06:30

This technique was posted on another board, gives a very neat comparison.

[bamboo2] 03/8/2021 15:19

This is quite a useful chart format for watching the US price. Has some pre and post market action. [adjustable]




If desired, these can be aligned timewise, with the US morning session below the UK afternoon session

[thetrotsky] 03/8/2021 13:21

If this dislocation between the the UK morning trade prices and the previous day's US closing price continues tomorrow, and possibly into the coming weeks, I think I might be tempted to make some daily spreadbets. The indicative pre-market price in the US is currently $15.75, which equates to about £11.30; which would suggest that the UK is trading at a discount. Also, what I can't quite get my head around at the moment is who leads who. We were expecting the UK pricing to follow the US, not the other way round. Also, I'm not sure whether the additional tranche of US shares issued to the brokers at $13 has helped matters so far this week.

[74tom] 03/8/2021 12:47

Only Berenburg have dropped the offer, but it’s NT for even 200 shares. They did something similar yesterday, I’d guess a client wants some cheap shares so they are trying to shake some shares from less sophisticated investors… The US is at £11.20 equivalent having closed at £11.85 last night. Volume 5k shares.

[thetrotsky] 03/8/2021 09:50

Not sure who's wagging who's tale at the moment. As far as I can determine the NASDAQ closed at $16.50 last night (ahead of the UK close) but the current pre-market price in the US (4 hours before opening) is at present showing as $14.91 (presumably taking its lead from the UK market, which is currently trading in the range £10.40-£10.60). I appreciate that it's very early days yet but, in the absence of any RNS, it would appear that there is a dislocation between the UK and US markets. The UK market is always going to have a more cautionary view than the US market but I can't believe that the US market is going to open ~10% down simply because the UK market has got the cautionary wobbles; so I'd expect the UK market to rally before 2:30pm.

[adamb1978] 01/8/2021 15:30

Agree about the potential for being acquired Nimbo - not my preferred outcome. I think the US listing helps prevent that a bit though, or at least would force a higher price, partly just because a bunch of institutions will have come in at a much higher price and therefore want a proper premium on that, and also because the funds which have come in understand the space and the potential for these some of companies (as opposed to more general UK funds which would have previously come in via the AIM listing).

[assagai] 01/8/2021 14:56

Same boat, 70% of pf nailed on with this one. We shouldn't dream of stellar returns and 8X so far ought to be enough......hhmm holding strong for long (but squeaky)

[nimbo1] 01/8/2021 14:46

Hi Adam - we started buying around the same time I believe, my first was 1.15... in no way does it make me complacent - in fact it means I pay more attention now (to the operational business) because its worth 60% of my PF. So far I have not trimmed and in fact bought more at £9. I have no intention of falling in love with a share and the more it grows the harder the down periods become. I know from a friend of a friend when one of the US funds invested at £7 they thought it could be a 10x - an off the cuff comment. So the potential is there but as with every investment its the things that you cant see or don't happen as you expect that can derail things.

Worth noting the value of something like 10x genomics which has been as high as $20bil off $300 mil revenues. If maxcyte clients have some therapies approved and maxcyte get revenues to say $150-200 mil in 5-7 years anything as possible...but of course market conditions can change and all that.

If I had to guess what might happen I think Maxcyte will be bought by someone like Thermo Fisher for between $3-5 billion within the next 2 years... they would be absolutely mad to allow maxcyte to continue on their current trajectory in terms of the % of cell and gene therapy market they are going to have.

On the share price and market cap something with this level of potential is always going to look very expensive on a US exchange IMO and not make sense to a casual observer.

[adamb1978] 01/8/2021 14:36

Would definitely be interesting if the VLX thing were to become another revenue stream.

I'm always wary of falling in love with a share, however equally buying and holding something which does 100x return can change your life, and probably most of us only have a very small number of them (at most) in our investing careers, and probably more likely zero.

I've sold BOO and FDEV well before they returned 10x which they would have made for me so not intending to sell MXCT until the story changes given I got in early enough for it to have the potential to be a 100x return for me.

We've all seen 10-20 year charts of Amazon, Nvidia, and many other growth companies and thought 'why didnt I buy 10-20 years ago'. Therefore whilst its only a small % chance that this could become a $20bn company, it does have a chance so no plans to sell, even though my weighting to MXCT is beyond healthy

[apad] 01/8/2021 11:59

I have come to learn that what I don't consider unexpected news in companies I have researched thoroughly is treated as new news when it is announced, so perhaps there is something of a blurring, nimbo1.
Anyroadup, they will make the most of everything they are doing, for the benefit of their new audience, so I may well improve my understanding of the company significantly.
Although MXCT is in what I call my trading account, I shall not be selling unless their story changes.

apad

[nimbo1] 01/8/2021 10:51

There are a few things that could occur - first they are close to another 4-6 SLP's I believe. Obvious I suppose as they stated TAM is 50 companies currently (13 already signed). What counts as close im not sure - within 6 months or 12? Its good because it increases the base recurring revenue, long term royalties and increases pool of drugs which might make it to commercial status and therefore commercial royalties.

Also in the IPO presentation they state BEAM is an SLP however we've never actually had an official rns about it.

The company is very excited about the long term potential of the VLX machine which could be launched commercially later this year but apparently needs another 20-30 mil spent on it according to the roadshow presentation.

I guess none of this would be unexpected though : )

[apad] 01/8/2021 09:30

Interesting speculations about whether the AIM listing will last.
I suspect it will be a function of the director's tax advantages (including a large herd of NEDs!).
We've got the interims in September. It wouldn't surprise me if there is some unexpected good news - timed to give the NASDAQ listing a boost.
I'm not sure I can stand any more excitement.
apad

[nimbo1] 31/7/2021 14:53

Also the recent news form allogene was also positive - their results are comparable with viral vectors already in use but using maxcyte the production and delivery is much cheaper and way more efficient so they’ll get the commercial edge and approval etc.

[gsbmba99] 31/7/2021 13:16

The CRSPR results the other day contained good news on the progress of CTX-001 their treatment for sickle cell and beta thalassemia and a timeframe to seek marketing approvals: "The companies anticipate achieving target enrollment in both studies in the third quarter of 2021, with regulatory filings possible in the next 18 to 24 months." It refers to filings which probably means US and EU. Not sure about CTX-001 specifically but many of the cell and gene therapies have secured special designations which permit expedited review or continuous review to reduce the time from application to a decision. The timeline of 18-24 months is consistent with what analysts assumed but I believe this is the first time that CRSPR commented.