Maxcyte Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 05/2/2021 08:04

Still not much stock available.

[nimbo1] 04/2/2021 17:51

Well the crispr drug has been given 70 percent chance of success of going commercial by the analysts. That alone underpins market cap here for max imo. Maxcyte have another 100 shots plus on goal. How do you value that?! In the billions imo when on Nasdaq.

[acuere] 04/2/2021 17:29

Likewise, you can expect a valuation a lot higher than where we are today. There is a huge appetite for gene engineering/ cell therapy shares on Nasdaq.

For example, look at Sana Biotechnology that has an upcoming IPO. Only 18mth old, clinical/P1 testing at least a year away, and no chance of profits for years if ever.

A couple of weeks ago they were hoping to raise $130m with IPO, last week they increased that to $323m (15m shares at $20 to $23), but such is the demand that has now increased to $517m (22m shares at $23-$24).

Out of them and Mxct I know which one I prefer.

[trickydicky1] 04/2/2021 17:27

1. So the gene therapy market could be $50-150bn by 2030
2. Their EP technology appears to feature in over >15% of new gene therapy cell trials started over the past three years ... could they gain a >>30% market share in the long term?
3. If they secure 5% royalties on all future agreements ...

We would have a royalty stream of $4bn+ per annum under a VERY blue sky scenario, and $0 if the technology ends up not working.

One thing I know for sure. Regret is a very powerful force.

NEVER INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN ACCORD TO LOSE - the chances of failure >>50%!

[edwardt] 04/2/2021 16:50

no idea but my bet is higher.

[tictac] 04/2/2021 16:46

Would anyone care to suggest what the share price should be if it had a Nasdaq valuation?

[someuwin] 04/2/2021 14:08

As well as increasing liquidity with the raise yesterday, they also appointed Stifel as joint broker. So I guess all the pieces are in place now to move forward with the NASDAQ application. Hopefully news on that soon.

"Modelio Equity · Feb 2

On top of all these fundamental triggers, a clear valuation trigger is the listing on NASDAQ USA before November this year. Analyzing peers in the US, there is a clear valuation discount for MaxCyte, which we think will close once on the NASDAQ."

[thetrotsky] 04/2/2021 14:03

Don't Adam! I had the opportunity to buy ASOS at less than £1 and thought they were overpriced! Arghh! Actually bought these on a newspaper recommendation at 250p back in June 2018 (can't remember whether it was the Times or Telegraph) for a bit of a dabble without doing much background research. Sometimes you just get lucky.

[trident5] 04/2/2021 14:00

It's shooting the lights out.

A dilutive placing serving only to bolster the balance sheet, suggesting they weren't so comfortable with working capital. I therefore presume the market has got excited about this because apparently savvy investors in life sciences were willing to stump up at 700p yesterday and over-subscribe.

[edwardt] 04/2/2021 13:51

we all do it! i guess my thinking was that i got my original capital back and i can leave the rest to do its thing. it has at least made me sit on my hands on the 75%. lets go to the nasdaq and see what this is really worth.

[adamb1978] 04/2/2021 13:46

edwardt -

Yes, I've made that mistake before. I bought BOO at just over 30p and sold too much on the way up, and bought FDEV at about 320p and again sold too much on the way up. I bought MXCT at around 170p and have no intention of completing a hattrick of very expensive mistakes!!!

Adam

[2theduke] 04/2/2021 13:39

Edward actually it was sensible. It was before the gene editing was really proven in a test case. In dec the sickle cell treatment really showed viability. Since then it’s a invigorated business opportunity.
So actually I think you did well taking 25% off only (with hindsight)

[gustocomeon] 04/2/2021 13:07

Edwardt - Just imagine you've just learned about the Co, and hop aboard again! I'm sure you will be well rewarded. And you still have your 75%! Good luck and dyor. ( Anyway it's too damned wet to be in the garden right now!)

[edwardt] 04/2/2021 12:57

i sold 25% of my holding 6 months ago thinking that was sensible. note to self - water your flowers and pull up your weeds!

[someuwin] 04/2/2021 12:12

Fantastic chart of growth in number of partnerships.

And we know its only going to get better...

"Coming into 2021 our strategic partnership pipeline is the largest we have seen"

[gustocomeon] 04/2/2021 11:29

Thanks AdamB -
Yes of course AIM is very lightly regulated - good point. Perhaps when MXCT listed on AIM they were unable to make NAS listing criteria at that time as you infer.
It's going to be an interesting few months. This stock is not that widely followed over here - yet. So there is plenty of room for improvement! Good luck and thanks

[adamb1978] 04/2/2021 11:14

Gustocomeon

Nadsaq's listing criteria are pretty stringent - its not a lightly regulated market - so they could list on AIM far earlier.

I ran a set of comps for Mxct a week or two ago and the median ev/sales multiple was 28.8x! And thats the median...not high end!

[gustocomeon] 04/2/2021 11:08

MXCT behaving very well. I was always intrigued as to why a US co would first list on AIM, and then later list on NASDAQ where valuations appear to be more generous than over here. Does anyone have any thoughts on that?
And in view of an upcoming listing on NASDAQ who might be MXCT's peers for comparison purposes. They appear the a bit of a one off...
DYOR etc I am a holder.

[someuwin] 04/2/2021 09:45

"Expect to report accelerating revenue growth in 2021 ahead of market expectations driven by:

- Progress of our existing strategic partners into and through the clinic with their lead programs; potential shift of pre-clinical programs into
clinic

- Addition of new customers and signing on new strategic partnerships

- Coming into 2021 our strategic partnership pipeline is the largest we have seen"

[2theduke] 04/2/2021 09:40

It's interesting that the fund raise would have been enough for trials on the CARMA product. It really shows the value now assigned to the core proposition, it's all become much more viable since the CX0001 outcome in December.
Without doubt this fund raise was for US investors and liquidity in the stock. If you are querying the need for the capital, there is a further point of what are they planning on doing with a US placement that will probably be an absolute minimum of $1bn valuation. The $1bn excludes ANY progress in partner clinical trials and the likely sizable cash injection due from the CARMA out license (which no one seems to be referencing).
As always there are downside risks, and this new liquidity could be used to keep the price sensible to support a US listing, with the UK as illiquid as it is, you can see the impact just us have on moving the price (and spread).
Finally re the point on the takeover, well that really shows the value doesnt it? If CX0001 alone is $50m a year in royalities and MXCT as a whole is valued at £600m, well then it's a no brainer as a target (barring any change of control clauses in agreements, which could make sense as MXCT supply most of the co's in the sector).
Enjoy the 14:00 show when the US comes online.

[someuwin] 04/2/2021 09:38

Amazing business model. License payments. Equipment sales. Recurring lease payments. Consumables payments. Milestone payments. Consultation payments. Plus, the holy grail of future royalties on successful product launches from their multiple big pharma partners.

[adamb1978] 04/2/2021 09:24

I think the money raised is just a bridge to raise investor awareness and appetite. Its only a small $ amount which has been raised and I'd imagine these investors will be looking for a large value holding, and are therefore going to be buyers post-Nasdaq listing.

The balance sheet strength will also show that the company has the firepower to be able to accelerate growth once on Nasdaq, and therefore draw in more investors

[nimbo1] 04/2/2021 09:19

Perhaps they raised the money to strengthen shareholder base so they can keep would be acquirers at bay

[someuwin] 04/2/2021 09:17

They're going to go crazy for this stock when it lists on NASDAQ later this year.