Maxcyte Share Discussion Threads

[adamb1978] 23/1/2021 20:58

Hi Russ

Thanks, I saw that though had forgotten to go through it in detail! To be honest, I'm not so fussed about precisely what it might be worth given that assuming their technology doesnt get distrupted somehow then their installed base and picks and shovels business model should be resilient and continue to keep compounding with the industry growth. That compounding is usually powerful in generating shareholder value and given I'm up almost 4x on my investment already, I'll be loving every year of the growth!! I've sold a couple 10-baggers on the way up before and not intending to do so this time!

Adam

[homebrewruss] 23/1/2021 16:18

Thanks Adam. Some more valuation thoughts here from Sahara on twitter

[adamb1978] 23/1/2021 14:27

I ran a search for comps to use as a valuation basis for Maxcyte. Using the criteria:
- Nasdaq lsited
- healthcare
- $20m - $100m revenues
- >$500m market cap
- sale growth of at least 20% last year and each of hte next 2 years

...it threw out 17 names and the median NTM EV/sales multiple was 28x. Only 2 of the 17 were less than 10x. Really shows what the potential is here if they can continue to grow this consistently at the say 25% CAGR which they've achieved over the last 5 years. If they continue that growth for another 5 years, then the share price here should logically be say 4x where it is today. Higher growth and that 4x goes up meaningfully too

[74tom] 21/1/2021 17:27

There are none as blind as those who will not see...

Quite how you can be seriously talking down MXCT at this point is beyond me. I'd say the extremely positive Crispr/Vertex news in December has increased the likelihood of success considerably, hence the rising share price. Next read outs will be key of course, but it would be a big surprise if the first 8 patients treated were all practically cured by chance.

Exhibit 8 of this excellent research note from May 2020 exemplifies the 3-5 year (from today's date) revenue potential. It appears to suggest that milestone payments represent around 10-20% of the commercial licensing value of a single product, so the $950m pre clinical milestone payments could represent between $5-10b of commercial phase revenues. Extraordinary.

[assagai] 21/1/2021 15:54

Nimbo he's not resident, he goes from house to house.

[nimbo1] 21/1/2021 15:43

I agree but didn’t want to be accused of ramping by the resident troll - ha.

[74tom] 21/1/2021 15:36

@Nimbo1, I note earlier in the thread you say this could be a $10b company in the next 10 years if Crispr's CX0001 drug is approved & is a bellwether for the rest of the industry. I'd go as far as to say that a picks and shovels play on Crispr as good as MXCT is could potentially 100 bag from the current levels in time...



"What surprised me most was that the majority of the stocks in the study were not speculative in nature. There was not as many biotech, junior minors or oil exploration companies as I had imagined. Furthermore, the median market cap for each at the outset of Mayer’s study was $500m – hardly the size of speculative investments."


If CTX001 alone is bringing in single digit royalties of between $40-80m per annum based on 2026 consensus sales of $1.3b and even 10% of the current clinically licensed programs are successful then the mind boggles at where this could go. It's not a stretch to claim that MXCT could be looking at annual revenues of $1b+ in the late 2020's which would be on huge gross margins.

I would also bet that only around 1 in 500 US investors are aware of it right now, maybe even less than that...

[bunz3] 21/1/2021 14:58

that video now on ggp share board , a good example for other shares

[multibagger] 21/1/2021 12:46

Added another 3600@670p...averaging up :)

Trade yet to show !

[assagai] 21/1/2021 12:31

Concur.
This is a solid hold.

[nimbo1] 21/1/2021 12:13

Also Maxcyte is a globally significant business on aim - the market cap is currently tiny when judged again US peer group. When its on nasdaq the market cap will rise to a level that reflects its status at the core of the gene and cell therapy market... All one has to do is hold for a couple of years while remembering the choice to hold is taking an action! I said the same when the share price was £1.50... so im consistent!

[adamb1978] 21/1/2021 11:33

Agreed someuwin. This is a serial compounder and one to own/hold rather than to bank profits. Every year the installed base and increased number of customer relationships makes it even more solid

[someuwin] 21/1/2021 08:39

Chart's don't get much better than this for consistent growth!

[nimbo1] 20/1/2021 22:13

indeed - hopefully you'll see follow through tomorrow as everyone scrambles to buy back : )

[74tom] 20/1/2021 16:48

Very interesting days trading here. It looked for all the world as though £6 would fail first thing but after a brief wobble L2 regained it's strength at 4v1 on 6-6.10. Then we had some huge transactions (£6.6m is a chunk and a half, and must have been institutional), before a real surge into close. It's clear now that all sells this morning were swept up by an II, I guess liquidity is so tight here that it's very rare to get a chance to buy a material amount, but today was that day.

The news that the pre clinical pipeline had grown by $150m in the last 4 months is tremendous, and underpins not just the coming year but many years to come. CARMA not being spun off is a slight disappointment, however there is nothing to say that licensing it can't work well, either way it's not a cash burn anymore or strategic distraction.

The fact they will almost certainly never have to raise cash again is very significant and justifies why someone wanted to purchase 1.1m + 500k shares today, 2% of the company will be very very hard to come by if they continue to build that royalty pipeline...

[multibagger] 20/1/2021 16:17

Delighted to see the price holding up - I was expecting a 50-60p+ fall tbh !

The core business is solid and growing apace and increasing adoption reflects the need for our tech.

[assagai] 20/1/2021 16:06

No real surprise of a pullback today although PMUR ( I think) tried to open the innings at 6.20bid. we have had a jolly good run up over the last few weeks but as my first broker from 35 years ago often tried to instill in me the message that it is often better to travel than to arrive.
As nimbo has pointed out , the volume today has been huge but two of our long term Brokers held their nerve at 6.00 through thick and thin. My honest view is that we will carry on up but at a more conservative pace and probably as early as next week once the analysts have consumed the whole meal.

Edit, that rise happened during my long winded post above!

[acuere] 20/1/2021 15:50

The pre commercial potential milestone payments rising from $800m to $950m plus is clear indication of how earnings are go8ng to ramp up in the coming years. When this lists on Nasdaq the Americans will be falling over themselves to buy in.

Here’s a reminder of November’s presentation:

[adamb1978] 20/1/2021 13:39

On the earnings call - unless I didnt hear the response properly, the thing which they said about the Carma business was that the buyers which they spoke to were going to do something with the technology (i.e. license it out) which Maxcyte said they could do themselves. Implication was that its effectively a cash cow now (or highly cash generative) and therefore why not keep themselves?

If thats the case then its a trade-off: immediate cash upfront from a sale, or ongoing P&L benefit from licensing out. They're not cash constrained which I guess helps the decision

[supernumerary] 20/1/2021 12:29

The potential bottomless pit of drug development has always hung over the company, hence the ultimate decision to divest all that.

I'm not surprised they couldn't get much of a price - most of the big spenders in the space already have CART assets, and are unlikely to pay well for more. Plus lots of small biotechs with assets to sell as competition. Sensible to cauterise and move on.

Now a nice clean company with a clear story to sell for Nasdaq.

[nimbo1] 20/1/2021 10:04

Please do, every laugh helps :)

[nimbo1] 20/1/2021 09:28

Carma was a cash drain and highly speculative - better to kill than keep funding if it isn't showing enough promise. I for one am disappointed there is no value creation spin off but its a positive they've stopped it if one is not forthcoming.

Core business is going from strength to strength as their partners make progress. It will list on nasdaq where comparables are valued in the billions. So for me its an easy choice to hold through any volatility.

Hopefully we'll hear more on the call ref carma reasoning.

[assagai] 20/1/2021 09:25

Not a genuine 25p drop. Skewed by over called close yesterday of 6.30. True drop 15p on bid.