Marwyn Value Investors Share Discussion Threads

[gleach23] 14/11/2018 15:56

NAV discount reported today as a whopping 38% as at 31 Oct

BCA up 7% today as a read across from MMH and up over 5% since 31 Oct

MVI currently up around 3% since 31 Oct so discount widening further

[skyship] 08/11/2018 09:39

With BCA worth 39% of the portfolio, so c75p/share; the 22p increase (to 214p) since 19th October raises the NAV by 8.5p from 192.4p to 200.9p. All other holdings remaining n/c of course.

[skyship] 07/11/2018 07:14

Having to pay slightly more to get the buyback stock:
===================================================

The Company announces that Liberum Capital Limited as broker, on behalf of Marwyn Value Investors L.P. (the "Master Fund"), has purchased 36,000 of the Company's ordinary shares ("Ordinary Shares") (the "Purchased Shares").

Date of transaction: 6 November 2018
Average price paid per Ordinary 124.0000 pence
Share:
Lowest price paid per Ordinary 124.0000 pence
Share:
Highest price paid per Ordinary 124.0000 pence
Share:

[gleach23] 02/11/2018 18:08

Yes that is at least something!

Today the NAV discount is reported as 36.07% based on valuations @ 19th Oct.

Since then, BCA is up over 10%, ZEG up over 1% and MVI is down over 1% so the discount as reported by MVI will continue to widen at least for the next couple of weeks.

In addition, aside from the approaching BCA Interims on 29th Nov, there was a nice 20k buy in ZEG today which will hopefully initiate a curve up on a the chart. Also worth noting that ZEG is seeking to double its stake in Euskaltel.

Seems to me as if the buyback has facilitated the exit of some holdings but meanwhile the share price has been left to an exaggerated drift which with any luck should shortly correct itself, aided by some of these factors above.

[skyship] 01/11/2018 17:14

Well, at least we are agreed that at this level they should be bought...so agreement at last 😊

[skyship] 01/11/2018 13:47

Gleach - sorry, but you are still failing to understand that the NAV is historic whereas today's share price is today's share price ..so you have to adjust the discount accordingly.

No matter; if you're prepared to make your judgements on historic as opposed to current data - then all I can say is - good luck to you too!

[skyship] 01/11/2018 12:48

NAV tomorrow - will we see the discount down to 33.85% as f/c by gleach - I suspect/hope not!

Anyway, perhaps irrelevant as BCA back up to 210p today; so the bottom may be in @ 120p....

[gleach23] 22/10/2018 10:15

Seems the penny is dropping even slower than I thought

[skyship] 20/10/2018 15:30

Gleach - bloody chutzpah on yr part - unable to admit that you got it wrong it would seem!

You failed to adjust the discount for the fallen share price Don't bother to admit your mistake; it's pretty obvious to all and sundry - so we'll leave it there shall we.

[gleach23] 20/10/2018 15:07

"Though of course I agree that NAV is at 5th October - likely to be slightly lower now; but even 3.7% lower at 190p the discount would still be 35.3%..."


So the penny is slowly dropping then...

[skyship] 20/10/2018 13:58

Perhaps no PIs in ZEG anymore! Might ZEG be rather good value now; as they seem to be valued twixt 123p-144p for this deal...

[skyship] 20/10/2018 11:19

Though of course I agree that NAV is at 5th October - likely to be slightly lower now; but even 3.7% lower at 190p the discount would still be 35.3%...

[skyship] 20/10/2018 11:16

Gleach - go back and look again!

This is what the RNS states:

As at 5 October the closing mid share price of an Ordinary Share in the Company was GBP1.3050 and represented a discount of 33.85% to the net asset value per Ordinary Share.

NB: the 33.85% discount is at an share price of 130.5p. The discount at 123p is 37.66%.

[gleach23] 20/10/2018 11:08

I'm not calculating it Skyship. I'm going from the reported NAV discount from the NAV RNSs which you seem not to understand. They are historic by 2 weeks - you are therefore comparing a 2 week old NAV to the current share price

[skyship] 20/10/2018 08:01

33.85%! Gleach - just how are you calculating your discount?

It really is a pretty simple calculation...

(NAV - Sp) / NAV; therefore (197.3 - 123) / 197.3 = 37.66

So, clearly a 37.66% discount is showing far better value than a still attractive 33.85%.

[gleach23] 19/10/2018 23:00

So following today's NAV update, during the first week of buybacks the discount has widened from 33.29% to 33.85%...

[gleach23] 18/10/2018 18:09

You dont need to look far dilip - last week's NAV report was based on a BCA price of around 205p. The discount was over 33% then and that was based on MVI @ 131p. MVI has fallen more than BCA since so I would have expected the discount to have increased.

[dilip40] 18/10/2018 13:02

bca has fallen from 240 to below 200 what would be nav now

[belgraviaboy] 17/10/2018 16:37

Deeply unimpressive discount management policy so far - pleased I am watching from the sidelines

[noiseboy] 11/10/2018 22:18

Got bored of waiting today, shifted my money into Terry Smithson new offering!

[julesj] 10/10/2018 09:42

(I mean *mostly* listed. There's LCG of course, which perhaps is what the market is concerned about. But that is < 20% of NAV. Could perhaps flog it off at a 5% write down in a wind down scenario?)

[julesj] 10/10/2018 09:35

So far this buyback implementation is deeply unimpressive.

The shares are trading at nearly 40% discount to NAV. If they have the faith in their portfolio that they are asking us private investors to have, then their own shares should be a bargain.

It's a portfolio of listed equities, so not even as if there's murky private market valuations to cloudy the picture.

They can't see better valuation in the market than a 40% margin of safety. They should dump the small holdings now and use all free cash to buy back shares in large volume.

If they can't do that then let's have a wind-up, realise the value, and save ourselves all a few years piddling about.

IMHO! :)

[gleach23] 10/10/2018 08:55

Can now buy @ 126.5. Seems that rather than narrow the NAV discount, the removal of the dividend is causing a constant dumping of shares in quantities much larger than the buy back quantities and widening it :-(

[gleach23] 03/10/2018 16:44

Looks like 5517 @ 131p was today's number. Seems they are generally reported after the bell.