Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Marstons LSE:MARS London Ordinary Share GB00B1JQDM80 ORD 7.375P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.65p +0.67% 97.90p 1,814,111 16:35:19
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
98.05p 98.15p 98.40p 95.80p 97.35p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Travel & Leisure 992.20 100.30 14.20 6.9 620.5

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Date Time Title Posts
21/7/201811:24Is there Life on MARS?91
20/7/201809:00Marstons...time to buy???2,725
17/7/201809:46Marstons - Needs Shaking Up !690
16/8/201715:56Is the brewery purchase toxic. Was always a good plodder before?1
24/5/200816:48MARS - The Iceman Cometh3

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Marstons (MARS) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2018-07-20 15:53:5497.722,9002,833.78O
2018-07-20 15:39:3497.6238,00037,094.31O
2018-07-20 15:35:1997.90251,336246,057.94UT
2018-07-20 15:29:5798.1532.94AT
2018-07-20 15:29:0298.15815799.92AT
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Marstons (MARS) Top Chat Posts

Marstons Daily Update: Marstons is listed in the Travel & Leisure sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker MARS. The last closing price for Marstons was 97.25p.
Marstons has a 4 week average price of 95.80p and a 12 week average price of 95.40p.
The 1 year high share price is 122.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 95.40p.
There are currently 633,854,287 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,877,895 shares. The market capitalisation of Marstons is £620,543,346.97.
quepassa: Good posts Quady. Well done. Great name. I do hope for your sake that you are connected: hXXps:// I can HIGHLY recommend Quady's Essencia Orange muscatel as perhaps the finest dessert wine I have ever tasted. Nor is Quady's Elysium Black muscat to be less admired. It's absolutely possible you might continue to get a yield with Marston's but it is ex-growth and the market is in decline. Growth is elsewhere. The share price performance whichever way you cut it or try to excuse it, has been a complete DISASTER ZONE for the last decade. And isn't going to get better. Careful just doesn't understand. Amazon isn't at all stretched. IT DOESN'T PAY DIVIDENDS but rather REINVESTS all profits into the business. That is why it has grown staggeringly and will continue to do so unlike a company such as Marston's which pays overly generous dividends and cannot invest in reinventing itself. If you use old school metrics to value tech companies, you can never possibly even start to comprehend them. - Even Warren Buffet has come to accept and to admit that with the likes of Apple, Google and Amazon which are the most valuable companies in the world. Brewdog is interesting. Just look at what they are brewing, Dead Pony Club, Jet Black Heart, 5AM Saint. That's where the growth is in craft beers with new format names and online marketing techniques targeted at younger generations: hxxps:// Martsons may have some good beers but they are antediluvian and caught in the uneasy mid-ground in a terrible and declining sector, with 720 pubs closing per year. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
quady: Ta Jeffian, I've just been reading the posts here from 2007 through to late 2010. The 2010 material looks like this the posts here over the last year (that's how long I've been lurking). Folk asking about the debt, folk saying the price will turn around but for now taking the high divi until it does. You saying the same thing about institutionals being annoyed. However, back then the view was it'd be forgotten over time. Whats not clear is why the slide happened in 2007/08 - other than the wider market generically tanking? I'm similarly unclear why the market has rerated Marstons lower after the share issue last year. Especially with a rising market backdrop in the second half of 2007 Sure, a surprise and I could understand a swift swing down to 120. But the price has drifted lower for no obvious reason. It falls on GNK's bad new but doesn't rise with it. I understand why the interim results were panned due to the exceptionals but following that the ace weather and bonus football performance have done nothing. Having run the shares up to 170p post rights issue I don't feel that's the problem. Unclear what has depressed the share price though. Thoughts welcome.
quady: QP - I have checked and Marstons peaked at about 330p in Feb 2007 on a rebated basic given the share split and rights issue, but that's not so material to your point. In short, I don't know why the slump, I wasn't invested then. But I can give some clues which others may pick up on to save me going into the accounts. By Nov 2008 the share price was at 60p. Between those two dates Marstons put in place their long term debt financing. Turnover is now about 40% higher than it was at peak share price, but profit flat between now and then. The dividend at the share price peak was about 2.7%, but payments in pence per share terms a bit higher than today. From the looks of it, it was misspriced in 2007. I think it's misspriced today, which is why I hold it. Beer might be in decline as a category, doesn't mean there isn't profit to be had. I also invest in BrewDog who's share valuation tragectory looks more like Amazon than Marstons. I doubt that in my lifetime beer will stop being sold, people stop going to restaunts and hotels. What I do doubt are FANG valuations being realistic. Anyway, Marstons is more of a bet on real estate and finance as it is beer. I'd be interested in others on here wisedom on why the share price fell so hard and hasn't bounced back.
illiswilgig: Hello QP, you make some very valid points. I've not checked that far back - but I assume you are correct and MARS share price in 2007 was 470p! Sad for anyone who has held since then. So to answer your question I expect that MARS is making a lot less profit today than it was 10 years ago. Hence the shareprice is a lot lower. It is also possible, indeed probable, that MARS is rated much lower today than a decade ago, perhaps in the expectation that profits will continue to fall. Probably a bit of both, less profit and lower rating = 100p shareprice today. The question is not what happened in the last decade - it's what will happen in the next decade. At least that is the basis upon which I invest. You are certainly correct about the macrotrends of online versus highstreet retailing and about the rate of closures of pubs. Though the next decade leading to all pubs being closed is about as likely as MARS shareprice falling by another 370p? But everything has a value - even if its a very low one? So after Amazon's meteoric shareprice rise and Marston's shareprice plummet which shareprice is closer the companies intrinsic value? It's interesting to note that Amazons profitability is actually quite low. It makes a 3% margin, 51bn sales and 1.6bn profit (Q1 2018) whereas Marston's has a 10% margin, 1080M sales 107M profit. Expectations of future profitability at Amazon are incredibly high the shareprice is 250 times current earnings - whereas Marstons is only 7. So Marstons is certainly valued very low - is it low enough? You are right about the rate of pub closures. But I think its very healthy, if only the restaurant sector had been shutting as many restaurants they might not be going bust quite so often! Over the last 6 years or so 60800 pubs in the UK have reduced by 10000, about an 18% decline? If Marstons is an average estate I'd expect to see a similar rate of decline of a few percent annually? So I've had a look and the answer is not simple. It appears that Marstons had an estate of around 2000 pubs a few years ago and now its 1568. But they sold 388 pubs for £144million and another 'portfolio' of 202 pubs. So as well as selling pubs they've also been opening pubs to end up with 1568 today. Of course selling pubs is about as good as closing them down if you don't get much cash for them. But I notice in the results to October 2014 they actually booked a surplus against the disposals of £37.5m ie they disposed of the pubs for more than their asset value on the books. That's a really key point. As well as a lowly rating on its profits and a reasonable margin it appears that Marstons pubs might actually be worth more disposed of than they are held on the balance sheet. So although pubs are shutting down - it appears that it might be because the pubs are worth more closed and sold on than operating as pubs? Not that I am promoting Marstons should sell off all its pubs and return the profits to shareholders, although others might do - but if they did so in an orderly fashion the likelihood is that I'd get back more than my shares are currently worth. (IMHO) The net asset value of the estate and the dividend cover make it likely that Martsons shareprice will not fall significantly in the future, so its a low risk investment for me - with a 7% return and the possibility of capital appreciation. I will leave my take on the new build pubs, lodges the 4000 room target and the breweries for another day. I think I will be reaching for the buy button again tomorrow, If you were hoping to convince me not to buy MARS then I am afraid you've been counterproductive QP - but thanks all the same, Cheers indeed, Illis
jeffian: Well the market would be an interesting (and volatile!) place if all investors followed a policy of 100% cash in (perceived) bad times and 100% invested in good. Just to prove that 'the market' is an amalgam of all views right across the spectrum, I (and My Old Mum before me even longer) have been pretty well 100% in equities since 1972 and, despite ups and downs (1974 was 'interesting'), it has done me no harm at all. If you think you can time the market, good luck to you. I do happen to have a slug of cash at the moment, purely because I have encashed an offshore bond for estate planning reasons, but generally I like my capital to be producing a steady and growing income stream from dividends rather than being dead money in the bank. And as for MARS being "the most risky share that I own", I consider it risk free (not in terms of the share price but the security of the asset). There. Call me a Contrarian, why don't you?!
cc2014: Amazing how posters turn up when the share price has been beaten up and start telling us how bad a shape companies are in. Funny how they have register, have never posted on any other stock and immediately have strong opinions. I can never figure out their motivation. With a market capitalisation of £650m nothing that gets written on here is going to make any difference to the share price Best not to engage really and ignore. I'm still working on that one.
cc2014: I took a look at the year end accounts this morning and it shows the following helpful information on page 102. Floating debt 601m Fixed debt (after swaps) £931m. Total debt £1,532m MARS has therefore protected itself on 61% of it's debt (some of it out to 2035) from interest rate rises at a weighted average interest rate of 5.3%. I shall therefore continue to hold on my 5 year time horizon as I think they will generate more profit from their assets as the economy grows and that the affects of minimum wage, business rates, sugar tax and raw material increases caused by weak pound are already in the price. I do not expect the share price to move up significantly until we've had at least 3-6 consecutive months of decent economic data (meaning wages rises continue to outpace inflation or consumer spending on high street far more robust than expected) My view is that we've already seen the start of the decent economic data but the large funds won't be ready to commit until they've seen far more of it.
blobby: If you look at a chart you can see how Marston's was hammered from over 400p to less than 100p in the last banking crisis. However... a) We don't have a banking crisis yet, and if we do it might not be an issue for Marston's banks. b) Marston's share price at less than 100p seems to be already discounting a crisis. In terms of types of debt, it may not matter as the important thing is how long term they are. If the debts are due (or can under certain circumstances be called in) in the short term then that is the problem.
jeffian: Ref: #2624/5, whilst an exceptionally high dividend yield can indicate that the market thinks the div is unsustainably high and will be cut, it's a mistake to think the div is a function of the share price. It's a function of earnings. As Septimus Quaid says, as long as the div is well-covered, it doesn't make sense to cut the div just because the share price is being hammered. Many years ago, when Aviva were still called Norwich Union, the company announced that because the dividend yield was so high in comparison to their peer group, they were going to "re-base" (i.e. cut!) it to bring the yield into line with their competitors. They halved the divi.....and the market promptly halved their share price so the yield remained the same! Managements should focus on the things they can directly control - growing revenues, controlling costs, making profits and paying dividends - and let the share price look after itself.
cc2014: Hello Smurfy, You are right to raise the issue of the debt. It is of course one a contributing factor as to why the share price is so low. If the debt were half a billion lower the share price wouldn't be where it is. For me the share price becomes a balance of the free cash flow number, the interest payment and the dividend payment.
Marstons share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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