Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[careful] 15/12/2023 09:22

'the biggest majority of their customers are struggling'...?

This is a myth. Most people are doing well, wages are at an all time high, millions of highly paid public sector workers save the cost of the commute so they can walk the dog, and we old investors make a shed load pushing money around and also get a fat interest rate on our savings.

Everyone is going on holidays, driving blingy cars so little wonder the better pubs are packed.

All of this excessive publicity given to the struggling bottom 20% in our society distorts the picture.
"Loadsamoney" as Harry Enfield used to say.

[janekane] 14/12/2023 17:40

jeffian
It’s doubtful any institutional investors would look at a company with 1.6 billion debt and the financial crisis hitting mortgage holders
The boozers always bear the resulting lack of funds by the biggest majority of their customers struggling to pay monthly payments and the result is a lower revenue stream for Mars

[heatseek77] 14/12/2023 17:19

Jubber and me nice close above 30p

[jubberjim] 14/12/2023 12:09

I ll be happy with 54

[skinny] 14/12/2023 09:47

JPMorgan raises Marston's to 'overweight' (neutral) - price target 58 (54) pence

[fenners66] 13/12/2023 22:50

Arguably I did not check the chart timing , however
I did not change the opinion from that which I had posted earlier either , same reasons just more detail

[wigwammer] 13/12/2023 22:42

Of course, the real opportunity to short the shares was after they tripled to 90-100p post the brewery deal. But the bears went strangely quiet.... :)

[wigwammer] 13/12/2023 22:37

The shares were at 31p just before the results were released. Not the 34p stated earlier. Just saying :)

[careful] 13/12/2023 22:33

It must be tempting with 1400+ pubs and a promising business case if it had reduced debt.
Looking at the Gilt markets here and in America today it looks as though money will be getting cheap again.

A market cap of £180m today.
£350m to take it out at about 60p per share, £250m to reduce debt.
£600m for a profitable business with net assets of £1bn and a decent balance sheet.

It could work.

[jeffian] 13/12/2023 21:45

I note that today's Market Report in the Times refers to Marstons in connection with takeover activity in the sector (eg City Pub Group/Youngs) and says that Marstons must be on people's radar.

One can but hope.

[fenners66] 13/12/2023 21:18

Well I made my interpretation of the results clear earlier - I am not surprised that its now fallen from 34 to just over 28.

Where is this "good management" you refer to careful ?
Not been in evidence for the last 5 years.

[careful] 13/12/2023 18:40

As the year ends this is by far my worst investment.

The net assets are good at about 100p per share and trading/cash flow is not a disaster and improving.
Pity so much the brewing assets had to be sold after the damage caused by Civid.

Too late to cut my losses so I will hold and hope for a gradual improvement.
Always a worry when the share price is so low, but with good management the debt should be gradually reduced by a combination of disciplined cash flow and a few asset disposals.

Plenty of upside potential if things turn out well, high risk/high reward.

[jubberjim] 13/12/2023 14:11

This close to Xmas

I am sorely tempted but too many others out there with similar vices but better dividends so regretfully will just watch for now enough in the sock drawer for now

Pathetic scared market rabbits in the headlights abound

No guts no glory but then no money either

Good luck

Cheers hic!

[janekane] 11/12/2023 17:47

Heatseek77
n). Total net debt of GBP1,566 million (2022: GBP1,594 million) includes IFRS 16 lease liabilities

[alan@bj] 10/12/2023 16:04

Inflation will come down in 2024, and interest rates will be eased in the second half of the year. Unless you believe the glass-threequarters-empty brigade.

[123trev] 10/12/2023 11:45

It would be a very long haul indeed especially if inflation picks up again and interest rates stay at 5% which is the bare minimum of what you should consider a normalised rate to be moving forward despite the pie in the sky brigade.

[diku] 10/12/2023 11:32

Think commercial asset disposals will not fetch premium prices...rate hikes has dented confidence in commercials...bad timing...

[darrin1471] 10/12/2023 11:28

What are the chances of MARS selling the CMBC stake within a couple of years to reduce debt?

"improved share of CMBC's profits: GBP9.9 million (FY2022: GBP3.3 million) and GBP21.6 million of dividends received"

[careful] 10/12/2023 11:16

The risk is baked into the price.

With a market cap of just £188m and a trading profit of £20m on a turnover approaching £1bn should be possible and would be ok.
Slowly reduce debt with a few selected disposals.

This will be a long haul, but Mars has good assets and could do well over the long term.

The holiday companies and cruise operators also had a near death experience because of Covid but they are coming back strong now.

[123trev] 10/12/2023 10:58

Honestly this is a zombie company that can not survive as it is in this new environment fudging the numbers just won’t wash anymore. The pandemic made these stocks untouchable to many now because nobody saw it coming and if it came again however unlikely this and a great deal of other stocks would be wiped out.

[heatseek77] 08/12/2023 13:41

Swung back above 30p on decent buys.
Roll on Justin

[diku] 07/12/2023 19:07

It never is BODs fault...as long as they are within legal frame work...the rest is open for manipulation...



Talking of rates...brain washed by CB's...all convinced rates would never ever rise again to mean...kept the economy momentum going and property prices to moon...it all looked like win win at the time...borrowing kept flowing...good for economy...

[fenners66] 06/12/2023 23:55

diku - I assume the "never the BOD's fault " is sarcasm.

Like borrowing a ton of money at low rates , never expecting them to go back to "normal" ever again...

[diku] 06/12/2023 22:46

Post 6886..am sure any financial astute person on ADVFN will have come across a company when the BOD have rejected an offer only to see the share price go down down deeper deeper down...and it is never the BOD's fault...just factors outside their control...some of these companies BOD's probably never thought rates would go back to 5% again...nor inflation spikes...

[careful] 06/12/2023 18:13

1400 pubs worth say £1m each.

This is a narrow margin business.
It would be easy to assume that any disposal for cash would've only a minor effect on overall profit and cash flow.
A Gradual selling off of some selected assets could be a sensible move to reduce debt.

But the risk is that the proceeds will be wasted, and remove focus from the financial discipline and hard work that would be better for the long term wealth creation.

The directors rewards should be closely linked to the share price via options. It would be a good start.
It is vital they have skin in the game.
We shareholders of companies with significant assets are often vulnerable to shady operators.