Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 03/1/2017 21:30

PUG

Midlands, East Midlands is more the origin. Mars has expanded into Wales, the North of England and into the South, to a lesser extent, in the last few years.

[pugugly] 03/1/2017 18:17

Has anyone considered the likely cost of the revised business rates on MARS. Press comments suggest businesses in the South will be badly hit compared to the north and rates are quoted as the 3rd largest cost centre. Frpm memory MARS used to be southern orientated but not sure after Thwaites purchsed.

[spacecake] 03/1/2017 18:00

If only MARS could reduce the debt at a faster rate.
I wonder if MARS intend to issue more shares.

[janekane] 26/12/2016 12:06

Our local mars pub was packed out xmas eve and yesterday Christmas lunch
Great results on the way

[123trev] 21/12/2016 11:49

Every time I visit one of their establishments it's packed they seem to offer value for money and the competion don't seem able to match it in my eyes.A keen buyer is obviously out there recognising they cater for a very large market.

[exel] 21/12/2016 11:45

my target buy price (top up, that is) is 132.50p which came close this morning - but won't chase. still believe there is good longterm value here - at or around that level. some may await 130p but I can't see that right now. the Punch acquisition will cause some majors to revisit this sector, where an outfit like MARS should catch the eye. why?

clean efficient operations
much tidied estate - largely freehold (good long term play)
solid roll-out plan for new units/bedrooms etc.
is reaching (or has arguably reached?) an earnings inflection point (per 2016 results)
manageable well-structured debt - freehold backed
progressive EBITDA (of more interest to a Heineken-type acquirer)
strong management (but cost savings post-acquisition)

In fact, at the present rating, I would guess there are majors with this one firmly on their radar. It may take a few more years, but a bid here should not come as a great shock if/when that were to occur.

[123trev] 21/12/2016 11:10

Had a big dabble here well worth the punt.

[petercrosby] 19/12/2016 11:27

I'm guessing there is a large buy order to fill at 135 or less and the 50K buyer thinks the same

[zcaprd7] 15/12/2016 10:47

£1.30 the obvious buying target here?

[spoole5] 15/12/2016 09:33

Greene king are as well.

[dogwalker] 15/12/2016 09:27

Thanks, spoole5. Was wondering there for a moment.

[spoole5] 15/12/2016 09:01

Ex divi today.

[dogwalker] 15/12/2016 07:54

That's what timbo003 said !

[spoole5] 14/12/2016 21:59

Could be quite a bit of interest in the sector over the next few days after the punch bid.

[timbo003] 14/12/2016 12:40

The takeover bid for Punch announced earlier seems to be having a bit of an effect.

[janekane] 10/12/2016 20:50

Mars tenants will always be on a looser the company own the property and brew the beer they sell in these property's (pubs)
You have a guy who is now supposed to keep negotiations fair and monitor/recommend the type of deals that will benefit both party's
Mars supplies a pub that sells 250 barrels of beer per year they charge the tenant top prices
They supply free trade outlets with the same beer but with a £120 ////£140 discount per barrel
The government tells Mars to give the tenant free trade prices
Mars then implement a fair rent IE existing rent plus 250#£130 =£32500 so the tenant gets a free trade deal with a fair rent that is more than double the existing and has to pay a premium of £32500 up front + full repairs on the property (put and keep)
This is complying with government rules and recommendations
The tenant will always pay the price of government meddling
They did this in the 80s and all the Brewers did was set up the pubco's
Who have killed the trade with the tie and high rents
The Brewers will always find a way of complying and still maintain their and our income
Prior to government interference in the 80s the Brewers and tenants both had good deals
This interference will only make a difficult job for publicans even more difficult

[blueliner] 10/12/2016 11:16

timbo003, thanks for the ITV link, would have missed this otherwise, well worth watching, especially the MARS involvement.

[jeffian] 09/12/2016 17:12

We seem to be in some agreement, ollie, and as I say I own both (and have bought more on current price weakness) so I'm not arguing. Not so much a choice between apples and pears as between Granny Smiths and Cox's Orange Pippin. (Am I going a bit off-piste here?!). GNK's eps at the interims was +4.3% and they still haven't felt the full effect of the Spirit acquisition nor the synergies arising (which they said were being realised faster than anticipated). We'll have to see which gets the better outcome but, as you say, they're both cheap.

[olliemagern] 09/12/2016 16:22

Jeff, thanks, pre Nov 24th results, the eps f/c for 2016, 17, 18 was 13.7p, 14.3p, 15p.

The 13.7p turned out to be 14p, but the 14.3p and 15p i believe are old pre Nov 24th f/c, and should be updated and upgraded later this month by the analysts. The f/c was for 6% growth in 2016 and 5% growth in eps for 2017.

After increasing profits 10% and 9% the last two years MARS whole estate is well placed for further growth this year, economy permitting. GNK and particularly M&B have a lot of their estate to upgrade over the next few years.

I agree in the past GNK better than MARS, but i now believe MARS have better prospects for the coming year, and are more focussed on future earnings these days. But nothing wrong with GNK they are also underpriced in my opinion.

[lord gnome] 09/12/2016 16:05

I did find the article interesting, but the problem with the quant approach to company valuaton is that, as ollie says, it takes no account of a company in transition. Single figure PE, 5.5% yield and increasing, growth to come? The ROCE should also improve over the next year or two. I'll stick with Marstons. Happy to hold.

[timbo003] 09/12/2016 13:58

It was Marston's turn to be cast as the big bad Pub-Co last night on ITV's "Tonight" program:




The Great British Pub Revolution

Series 18 - Episode 39 - Jonathan Maitland discovers why the local pub could be making a comeback. With communities rallying to save their local, is the pub industry having a renaissance?

[jeffian] 09/12/2016 13:45

Yes, I wasn't too sure about that article. Just looking at history and trends without trying to understand the businesses seems a bit like flying in the dark (which is why I don't 'get' chartism either). As someone who worked in the industry for years, it always shows a fundamental lack of understanding when analysts lump together Managed House operators like Wetherspoons and M&B (who are, simply, retailers) with tenanted pubco's like Punch (property and drinks wholesaler) whilst Enterprise are moving towards being a pure property play.

I'm not clear why you favour MARS over GNK, ollie. Their forecasts/values seem pretty similar. (info from Yahoo)

MARS
2016 underlying EPS 14p / PER 9.7x; 2017 14.27p (+1.93%)/ PER 9.53x; 2018 15.02p (+5.25%) / PER 9.12x

GNK
2016 underlying EPS 69.9p / PER 9.86x; 2017 71.16p (+1.8%) / PER 9.69x; 2018 74.11p (+4%) / PER 9.3x

I hold both but I rate GNK management higher than MARS and think they are the more likely of the two to deliver/surprise on the upside.

[olliemagern] 09/12/2016 13:01

The article Sharescope above is fair, but MARS will come out badly on past performance because of the focus in 2013,2014 and 2015 years selling under performing pubs, and repositioning the company. So the past performance table is not useful.
Now repositioned, MARS performance this year and the next year is and will be better than Green King and above the average of the group.
The article is poor because it gives no conclusion.
My conclusion is on p/e and future growth, the only buy of the group is MARS.

Does anyone have an updated f/c for next years underlying eps, in a difficult year to come I have pencilled in (+2% for GNK) +7% for MARS to 15p.

[speedsgh] 08/12/2016 11:06

Useful article on the sector...

Weighing up pub stocks -

[lord gnome] 07/12/2016 16:05

Almost everything is up to day. The market is displaying irrational exuberance and a rising tide floats all boats.