Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 26/4/2013 07:55

rmii

I'm a sad case - Accountant!

red

[rmillaree] 26/4/2013 00:29

With regard to the impairment figure quoted this is a nonsensical accounting requirement and means nowt without quoting the associated the unrealised revaluation surplus which wipes out the vast majority of the figure you quote - I struggle to think of any more illogical accounting rule than is at play here - ho hum that's accountants for you I guess.

[rmillaree] 25/4/2013 23:58

Hello redartmud - simples if you don't like or are uncomfortable with the debt sell up and use funds elsewhere.
If profits tank shareholders are or may be goosed.
Personally I look at Mars likea owning a BTL property they borrow funds - invest - get good cash flow from money invested that enables them to pay debt own. The Amount of debt is very long term at agreed rates so not an issue at current profit levels.
They have invested heavily in the new wetherspoons type mega outlets - these are returning great bang for the bucks invested. However all the cash flow is spent up front explaining the lack of debt decrease.
Current forecasts (not a great believer in the hype but I have no specific reason to believe there is any reason for them to be hyped) are for 95 mill pre tax this year and 100 mill next year - that's pretty decent expected increases.

[redartbmud] 25/4/2013 21:58

I am still uncomfortable about debt:

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Borrowings 1328.2m 1194.9 1198.7 1177.4 1181.9

Profit bef Tax 76.2m 81.4 52.5 80.8 79.6*
* Before impairment £215.1m = Loss £135.5m

Net Finance cost 80.7m 89.0 79.9 70.8 78.3

I just don't see any real improvement in 5 years I'm afraid.

red

[gbb483] 23/4/2013 11:37

I guess the threatened interference of an overseer has been seen as a positive influence on the bu5inesses!

[skinny] 18/4/2013 08:35

JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 133.20p 150.00p 150.00p Reiteration

[skinny] 17/4/2013 15:01

SMP raised £80m last Autumn via a 6.25% bond - not a bad investment as it transpires.

[trytotakeiteasy] 17/4/2013 13:45

I wonder what Goldman Sachs' conviction sell argument is????

JakNife - couldn't Marston's launch a retail bond...

Broadly with interest cover improving over the last three years to 2.3X in the year to Sept 12 versus 2.1X the year before the group must be reducing its risk profile somewhat...

Debt increased 1.8% in the year to Sept 12 to £1.12bn but that is on expanding new pubs....

So not sure of the bear argument here although post xmas trading will be tough on the weak weather...

[skinny] 17/4/2013 13:18

Numis Buy 135.55 145.00 160.00 Upgrades

Shore Capital Buy 135.55 - - Reiterates

Liberum Capital Hold 135.55 - - Reiterates

Goldman Sachs Conviction Sell 0.00 132.40 - 113.00 Retains

[redartbmud] 17/4/2013 09:37

jeff

Agreed, but it is a ticking time bomb.

red

[jeffian] 17/4/2013 09:06

"Very sinister securitised interest increased."

No, it isn't "sinister". It is known about and was widely discussed on this thread some time ago (see #923 onwards).

[redartbmud] 17/4/2013 07:52

Brewer and pubco Marston's said snow and cold weather affected pub trading and it expects operating profit for the first half slightly below that of last year. As previously guided, the interest charge for the period will be higher, principally due to the step-up in securitised interest. However, expectations for the overall trading performance for the full year remain unchanged. As part of the operational restructuring described above and the ongoing focus on minimising costs, the group expects to reduce operating costs by around £3m per year, with about half of this amount benefitting the results for the second half of this year. Trading has started well in the second half and the group expects to benefit from less challenging sales comparatives for the remainder of the financial year. Marston's has opened nine new pub restaurants in the financial year to date and anticipates opening at least 20 by the end of the year which, combined with the rollover benefit of the back-ended 2012 programme, will generate additional profit in the second half. Marston's will announce Interim Results for the 26 weeks to 30th March 2013 on 16th May 2013.

Was it the wrong type of snow?

Very sinister securitised interest increased.
This is a health warning.

[redartbmud] 26/3/2013 17:31

Still time that he was on his bike!

[jeffian] 26/3/2013 16:52

Anyway, it wasn't Lord Hodgson, it was his son! Maybe the Uni fees have become due.

[redartbmud] 26/3/2013 16:45

Lord Hodgson - 5292 shares. It's hardly material. Time he was on his bike anyway

[skinny] 26/3/2013 16:16

Director sale yesterday - ironically Singer raised the TP on these and GNK yesterday.

[jeffian] 26/3/2013 16:11

It's very hard to see what's to short here. The company's growth prospects may not set the world alight but it's not on a high PER and it produces a steadily growing stream of profits and dividends from a very secure asset base. Any fears about the gearing of pubco's have calmed down, with only PUB looking as if it will succumb to its debt burden. I don't really see what the short case could possible be here.

[redartbmud] 26/3/2013 15:58

I see Hederson Global is shorting 2.09% of Marstons.
Wow!!

[redartbmud] 25/3/2013 09:35

Not holding my breath on this re-rating.

red

[skinny] 25/3/2013 09:05

N+1 Singer Buy 141.95 141.40 - 161.00 Initiates/Starts

[redartbmud] 22/3/2013 14:26

Wake me up at £1.60 please.

[skinny] 22/3/2013 13:50

New high today @144.30p

[fangorn2] 26/2/2013 09:38

Marston's:
JP Morgan moves target price from 140p to 150p and keeps an overweight rating.