Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[123trev] 25/3/2020 12:11

Yes totally agree I reckon when this is all over you will have a euphoric two weeks but will that make up for the lost year and future lost years because by the time this is over the costs to everyone will not be a matter for celebration.

[archy147] 25/3/2020 11:57

Careful - couldn't agree more, when the ban is lifted people will be going in droves to the pub to make up for lost time.

As long as companies like MARS can avoid going bust in the short term, there's every chance service will be more than resumed in a few weeks/months.

[careful] 25/3/2020 11:36

On a glorious today like today.
After this war is over there will be a pent up demand to go out to pubs and restaurants.

Marston has a glorious future.

[pherrom] 25/3/2020 10:52

jeffian
Merged with John Thompson & Son Ltd in 1898 and the name was changed to J.Marston, Thompson & Son Ltd; and then to Marston, Thompson & Evershed Ltd in 1905 when Sydney Evershed Ltd was acquired.

In 1999, Marstons were bought by Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries Ltd, and the brewery group was later renamed Marstons PLC.

So in 1970 they were certainly M T & E.

[jeffian] 25/3/2020 10:31

#3473,

Newcomer! Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries, if you please!

[john09] 25/3/2020 10:06

I thought I’d buy and hold but i cant pass up the lock in of profits 26p - 47p in days

[chinese investor] 25/3/2020 09:59

GO GO HORSEY !

[pherrom] 25/3/2020 09:32

I bought these when they were Marston Thompson & Evershed (1970) @ 10/6d (52½p).
I'm hoping that they'll soon be back above that.

[john09] 25/3/2020 08:58

Yep. And marstons is a long way off from being a Marconi mate

[mister md] 25/3/2020 08:53

Just have a diversified portfolio of shares. Thats a good start.

[careful] 25/3/2020 08:48

Calmer heads must exploit the fear of others.
But sometimes panic is the correct course of action.

[smithie6] 25/3/2020 08:44

jeffian
some interesting points

I dont agree that ale is a declining sector in the medium term

in Europe as a whole it has grown from not-existing 5-10 years ago. People had heard of it before or every experienced the flavour.

in Spain for example some people are now drinking IPA as an occasional treat (since it much more expensive), & many micro breweries in Spain now make it & sell it !....& it is now appearring in supermarkets...

in eastern Europe one of the biggest selling canned beers is an IPA, whereas perhaps 5 years ago it perhaps didnt exist at all

(the new Hobgoblin IPA won the award for the best IPA in the world, whether the directors are able to turn that award into monthly profit, I dont know; but the market/demand for IPA is there & growing in Europe if not in the UK)

they, in Eastern Europe, also sell a LOT of weaker beers/shandies in summer, mixed with
- grapefruit
- lemon
- & other fruits

One of the biggest selling drinks in Spain in the summer is beer with lemon. On draught or in cans/bottles.

craft beer is a growth sector in the rest of Europe

while Im sure that lager dominates the market, as you said,....but there is a big market for other drinks/tastes.

Coca cola is one example. there used to be just 1 type. Now there are maybe 10 different types.
If you look at the product range of companies like Damn Estrella, San Miguel you will see more different tastes/drinks/beers. It is proof that providing different flavours is what is happening, imo

& the world doesnt just want to drink (cheap) lager (while it might be the biggest seller)

----

the size & growth & success of Wetherspoons over X decades also shows that there is solid massive demand for 'tasty' ales.

[john09] 25/3/2020 08:35

Good me too. I unfortunately paid 26p lol.

[archy147] 25/3/2020 08:34

Yes I did get some at 25p thank you John!

I see no reason to let go of these until they hit 100p either. :)

[john09] 25/3/2020 08:29

Yep its catching people out on the sidelines

[chinese investor] 25/3/2020 08:24

Looking Good !

[john09] 25/3/2020 08:17

35p great. Hope people bought some 25p during all that long winded debate lol

[archy147] 25/3/2020 05:42

MARS is presently trading at 50% below its previous lowest price ever (which was c60p after the financial cash bottomed out in 2008)

Can anyone see a share out there with greater growth potential over the next 6 months?

[jeffian] 24/3/2020 23:21

Smithie6,

I think you're guessing at what you would like/believe to be the case rather than what is. I used to be a Director of a regional brewer, albeit a long time ago, and, indeed, used to espouse the very points you make about the advantages of selling your own ale through your own pubs but the trends apparent back then have continued and I'm afraid worsened for traditional ale brewers.

For a start, most people don't drink ale, they drink lager. Marstons' own figures show that 70% of on-trade sales are lager. Ales are 23% and declining. Nobody can compete with the giants like Carling/Carlsberg on price.



None of the other stuff is relevant (product quality/delivery/price control) as the international brewers are desperate for outlets for supply and are more than happy to negotiate fixed contracts at huge discounts based on volume. This was the model used by the pubco's (Enterprise/Punch etc) whose ever-expanding estates gave them leverage to negotiate ever greater discounts.

Marstons beers are nowhere near achieving 'international' status and are unlikely ever to do so.

Keeping little breweries going in Ringwood, Barrow-in-Furness, Bedford etc etc may delight us ale-lovers but it is madness commercially. It looks as if they are doing it for the love of it/'tradition' but the obvious solution would be to focus on a (very) limited number of key brands (Pedigree etc), centralise the brewing process and create efficiencies of scale.

Archy147,
I don't dispute that MARS shares could be a reasonable recovery play at current prices but as everything is being trashed, I just think there are better opportunities. I would rather buy into companies with genuine growth opportunities than those that are just going to survive.

[archy147] 24/3/2020 21:21

careful24 Mar '20 - 13:41 - 3447 of 3458
Well yes jeffian, in a way I am.
this morning I bought some more MARS.
Either we think this corona virus is an over hyped panic that will blow away, or it is a potential mass killer changing all life as we know it.


+1 This is bang on and my position exactly. MARS is my big recovery play to (hopefully) recover the money I’ve lost in my SIPP over the last 3 weeks + hopefully come out on top afterwards. Also bought some MAB yesterday, which seemed the 2nd best bet.


jeffian24 Mar '20 - 16:53 - 3452 of 3458

This market shakeout is going to produce many bargains and great gains when they recover but in MARS' case, recover to what? To toddling along much as they did before, I suspect.



My thought: They may have been disappointing before but as a new investor, I’m more than happy for this to recover to a “toddling along” 107p, which is the price it was on 21Feb, the day before the CV panic first started to hit. To return there would still be a 250% upside from where we finished today.

[smithie6] 24/3/2020 21:05

well, 10% of co. brewed beer is exported

that's very impressive dont you think ?

[technowaxy] 24/3/2020 20:46

No. Bottled product is a small fraction of draft sales.