Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[spacecake] 31/7/2018 11:38

British households spent around £900 more on average than they received in income during 2017, pushing their finances into deficit for the first time since the credit boom of the 1980s.

The Office for National Statistics said the shortfall amounted to nearly £25bn – equal to almost a quarter of the NHS budget – and the overspend was mostly paid for with borrowed money, though households also ran down savings.

[123trev] 31/7/2018 11:07

The city take a long time to forgive and forget and previous company behaviour still casts a dark shadow here.However rising costs and uncertainty have a greater affect now because this is a discretionary business that has tough competition its vulnerable to any future profits warning!I have mentioned this before I used my nearest Marstons pub quite a bit and it was always very busy and the model was clearly one based on volume because it offered very good value for money.Quite a few months ago it had a refit and a menu change this nearly doubled prices and led to a huge fall in customers and it hasn’t recovered as I’m reliably informed and I don’t use It anymore.

[janekane] 31/7/2018 10:17

This share price is an absolute disgrace the city has no confidence in our CEO,s ability to move us forward with this existing plan of lease rent back
Let's hope the major shareholders who must be heavily in the red decide enough is enough and lobby for change
The way this is going talk of share price going to 80p is concervative
There,s a probability of this nose diving below 70p with out strong intervention
Enough is enough

[123trev] 30/7/2018 11:19

123trev,sell Reiterates 80p looking at the longer ten year chart and taking into account all the present economic dangers it would seem more than probable and how long have Peel Hunt been touting this now!

[skinny] 30/7/2018 08:35

Peel Hunt Buy 96.53 140.00 - Reiterates

[123trev] 30/7/2018 00:39

Lol,welcome to the circus because the greatest of all the 🤡 S is you £1.50 get a grip on reality the market just dosent work that way and you should never ignore the trend it’s your friend and 80p is what the chart is saying not me.

[careful] 29/7/2018 19:27

hard to see why this is not higher.
compare fundamentals to Wetherspoon.


gearing ex tangibles lower at 70% vs 82%
higher pre tax profit.
an historic pe of 24 vs 7 for mars.
yield 1% vs 7.75 for mars.

A share price of 150p is more likely that 80p on the evidence we have.
share price trends bring out the clowns.

Just looking for a steady total return of around 5%pa here.

[illiswilgig] 29/7/2018 18:29

If the shareprice does reach 80p it will be because of lack of demand for the shares - which in some ways means that I agree, there is not enough demand for the shares at the current price. Will there be enough demand at 80p, and why should Marston's be worth 80p tomrrow and not the 98p its share trade at now?

Not necessarily a rational answer to that. There is no doubt that I'd prefer to buy more shares at 80p than the 98p I am offered now. But will I? As Warren Buffet is reputed to have said 'In the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term a weighing machine'.

Right at the moment very few are voting for the brewing industry and pubs. Or the food and hospitality sector. Added to that Marston's has an unpopular business model (with the City at least) and plenty of debts. Lots of risks and no great reasons to love the share with plenty to avoid both the sector and this share in particular.

Just the right conditions for throwing up an undervalued share. Trouble is, by definition, the risks mean its easy to get it wrong, it's more likely to be a value trap and very few will want to take the chance.

Don't forget to do your own research. Mines a pint of Old Thumper, no hold on I'll have an Owd Rodger this time :-)

cheers

[123trev] 29/7/2018 13:46

True but that’s not the issue as such in that if everybody suffers the same fate so will all shareholders and with an already falling price this dosent bode well here.I still see this at 80p now it’s just seems that the big players want it there and before anybody says I’m talking this down my thoughts are just that and have no bearing on the price.

[dinvester] 29/7/2018 13:06

I agree with your point. However in this scenario all UK pub/club/restaurants will equally suffer the same problems. Hence, in theory, Marstons will be no better or worse off than the other similar mainly UK based companies operating in the same field.
At least I hope so, as we could do with as many positives as possible, to keep the hope alive of an acquisition asap.

[123trev] 29/7/2018 09:19

Yes you have a valid point however increasing costs of food have to be passed on and this affects not only our pockets but a companies bottom line.im hearing serious rumours that a 25kg bag of potatoes could be at £20 shortly and that’s just one item but a major staple I’m already seeing prices in some places rising by 10-15% in anticipation.

[pugugly] 29/7/2018 08:46

123Trev_ Could be good for MaRS - More staycations - Why go to Europe when better summers in UK than France/Spain etc and if sterling tanks against the € then less costly and no frying in the heat on the M20 waiting for Le Shuttle &/or ferries and or Frog ATC's going on strike.

[123trev] 29/7/2018 08:27

I wouldn’t concern myself to much with how many roles Mr.Findlay has because that’s the least of this companies problems.The weather around the world is causing food and ingredients prices to begin to soar now adding to the fear of future pricing because of Brexit and trade tariff disputes all this will have an affect on the future bottom line.

[janekane] 29/7/2018 04:39

We need to break this £1 barrier to get this moving however the market is not supportive of our work in progress the lease buyback over 25/40 years is keeping us in the red any earnings could be eroded if we get into a recession
Look at Gordon Browns plans with hospitals they are costing the nhs a fortune

[dinvester] 28/7/2018 19:40

My point was that he has far too many roles.

Anything that takes his attention away from the job at hand, that all investors here would prefer him to be concentrating on, which is Marstons PLC.

FYO I have just found that Ralph Findlay is a director of another company which turned over a shade more than £7.7M in 2017.

Marstons PLC, Bovis etc. Its all too much.

[nav_mike] 28/7/2018 18:46

dinvester

Your obvious dislike for this man is blinding you to you some important facts

Marstons may have 41 subsidiaries but I think 34 are dormant, and so the amount of time spent on admin will be next to nothing

If a company is paying expenses, it cannot be classed as dormant, so how can you back up your assertion that he is drawing fees from all of them?

Ive just randomly searched 5 of the dormant subsidiaries at Companies House and they were all worth the princely sum of £1

These companies have either been bought to grab a good company name, for future projects, or are legacy companies that have now been absorbed into the main group

[dinvester] 28/7/2018 17:53

Oh dear.

So you were a brewery plc director for many years.

Interesting.

As for all of these companies being for accounting purposes only, OK.
So you are saying that there are 41 private companies showing as being owned by Marston's PLC yet the CEO pays no attention to the financial or trading position of any of them.

Well it just goes from bad to worse.

[jeffian] 28/7/2018 17:22

Don't be silly, dinvestor. He is spending no time at all 'running' these companies individually neither is he receiving separate payments from them - they are all part of Marstons. I was a plc brewery Director for years and, as a result, my name appeared as a Director on many of our subsidiaries but the company is run as a whole and the subsidiaries merely maintain separate status for accounting purposes. I am afraid you're just displaying your ignorance.

[dinvester] 28/7/2018 15:56

Jeffian, Yes sir I am aware.

However, being the Director of a trading private ltd company is not just a technicality.

If you are suggesting that he is Director of all of these companies, which will have direct and indirect effect upon Marstons PLC, and is negligently ignoring how they are all being run, then yet again another reason for NO confidence in this man.

If however you are suggesting that he does actually oversee the workings of each company, then again, NO confidence because his time is spread to thinly.

Either way, he is receiving £1.4M from Martsons PLC , Plus remuneration from most of the companies you mention.

[jeffian] 28/7/2018 13:11

dinvester, have you actually had a look at the companies of which he is a Director? They are almost all subsidiaries of Marstons! This is purely a technicality.

[dinvester] 28/7/2018 13:02

That is correct, but not to forget that in addition Findlay is Director of 41 private ltd companies in total.

He gets remuneration of various forms from most of those.

I can tell you that being the Director of only 3 active companies is a daily struggle to try to keep up to speed and often very easy to miss important issues.

[janekane] 28/7/2018 07:04

Finance Director in 1996, becoming Chief Executive in 2001. Ralph is currently the Senior Independent Director at Bovis Homes Group PLC. He is also Pro-Chancellor and Chairman of the Governing Council at Keele University and a Director of the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA). He previously worked as Financial Controller at Geest plc and Treasury Manager at Bass plc.

[quady] 27/7/2018 18:13

dinvester - which other jobs?

[mr_spock] 27/7/2018 16:00

If you were new to this share and read the recent posts you might think that MARS had gone nowhere in the last few years and was dead in the water. Is that really true?
I am new to MARS (I'm a holder). Maybe that explains why my outlook is more positive. Will my mild enthusiasm get beaten down in time?

But let's not forget:
- the high yield (not to be sniffed at)
- market share is increasing. That has to be good for something.
- MARS is well diversified (brewing, pubs, accommodation, distribution)
- new distribution deals open up new distribution points for MARS beers
- Charles Wells brands will help MARS access new territories

Re the freeholds, reading through my notes I see that the EBITDA held outside securitisation is increasing (was 45% as of Nov 17), so this will give MARS more flexibility going forwards.

I'm not convinced re the lodges. There's been a lot of growth in hotel accommodation in the last few years, so I hope MARS are cautious so we don't get caught in an oversupply situation similar to what's happening in the restaurant sector.

[dinvester] 27/7/2018 14:25

The simple fact is there is NO CONFIDENCE in this man as CEO.

Sadly, Findlay with his £1.4M wage, plus his wages from his multiple other jobs and posts is not going to step down.

However, I do agree that he may very well be ousted. Fingers crossed.