"Loss for the period 2024 -(18.5) 2023 - (9.3) |
Yes, I'm not expecting a dividend (due to the high debt levels), but any guidance of when it could be expected should send the share price up. |
Results in the morning. |
i am slightly skeptical that stuff wont turn up that stops real cashflow being lower than perhaps one could hope for. i doubt mr market is goona give them the beenfit of the doubt until they can show that on clean basis debt is coming down solely fro core operations. ok they may be able to magfin soemthing up ref assets not genrating great returns - if they can offload underpeforming stuff at book value - in that regard i kinda presume if they could have done that easily by now they would have.
on top of everything else they need to keep estate in tip top order as the newer estate adds from spoend pre covid will presumably start to be lkooking slightly tatty if they dont invest suitably. |
 I am surprised there has been no comment made regarding last weeks IC article.
The biggest problem for me with Marstons has been poor management, the well respected Ken Lever arriving is most welcome:-
"....The UK market seems to be having more and more difficulty really establishing the values for businesses,” he told investors last month. Lever, a city veteran who previously chaired the boards at Biffa and RPS Group (both of which were taken private in 2023 at decent premiums), argued that the current valuation attached to Marston's makes no sense.
“It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out if you’ve got net tangible assets in excess of £1 a share, and the share price trading at around about 40p, even if the net tangible assets were overstated by 30 per cent – which they’re not, I might add – there would still be a significant value opportunity.”
CEO Justin Platt who was Chief Strategy Officer at Merlin Entertainments surprisingly speaks about acquisitions and earning a 30%+ return from capital investment.
This rather surprised me considering debt levels, though they sound confident on future cash generation.
As regards CMBC I recall the supply agreement Marstons has with them is a long term one at arms length and does not preclude Marstons from buying other brewers products.
I have bought some shares in Marstons today for the first time since 2011 when the shares were 90p each lol.
Of course this could be another false dawn for the company like previous management initiatives. Maybe results on Tuesday will give an inkling on if better times are possibly ahead. |
Fenners66. Money laundering. |
Fenners.
You seem to proceed from some false notion that CMBC somehow have Marstons over a barrel.
That would be a case of the tail wagging the dog.
Go in any Marstons pub and you'll find plenty of beers from other brewers (even smaller ones like Hawkstone) So if there was some sort of agreement reached, it certainly doesnt tie Marstons down exclusively to CMBC. |
Telegraph says that's what happens when global brewers run by accountants take over.
Carlsberg will want an improved return on their investment.
Which why I would be keen on seeing the post deal agreement with Marstons.
I presume there is a multi year tie in for Marstons .
I also imagine that the prices will go up as they are no longer a part owner.
But one would have thought that would be limited by the terms of the deal...
Just depends which party were the most desperate to sign that deal. |
Well I think we all saw that one coming! Sad. |
Two pubs that I visit have increased a pint by 10p since the budget. |
All competitors will have to raise prices 1-2% to compensate for cost increases. Marstons will not be alone. The question to ask is - are Marstons better placed to do this given they cater to an older, wealthier demographic? In my view - yes... Nice valuation too. GLA |
Good point. |
From the DM
"The Budget is a 'deep and painful wound' for pub trade, an industry boss has warned amid sinking confidence in the Government.
Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association, warned venues will shut, jobs will be lost and the price of a pint will go up in a £650m hit to the sector." |
Also today, JP Morgan cuts M&B and Young's and co. So they must particularly like Marston's! |
If only. Go on, then! |
FWIW :- JPMorgan raises Marston's price target to 78 (68) pence - 'overweight' |
Where is ole KY |
Quite a few of my shares in my portfolio have took a dive in the last month, mainly due to an increase in short positions eg ITV, EVOKE, VANQ, However I see that MARS doesn't have any declared shorts (maybe there are some below the 0.5% reporting threshold). I'm taking this as a positive, as I believe shorts are thinking that there isn't much downside from here, but there could be a lot of upside |
"Some of course refuse to believe the budget has any impact..." No. it was simply highlighted that getting to a firm number was difficult, that you have a history of making wildly inaccurate guesstimates, that you have a history of only seeing the negative side of things (except when the shares are near recent peaks), that you ignore valuation etc etc.. Apart from all that, really great stuff :) |
.
"But subsequently shares in the £231million company have dropped by 14 per cent amid the Budget-fall-out this past month.
Again, analysts are confident, setting an average target price of 60p. This represents a big bet on the implementation of the ambitious new strategy." |
Youngs who had 7172 employees in April - but has added another business since then , says the Budget will cost them £11m next year.
With more employees on Mars books I may have understated the impact here.
Some of course refuse to believe the budget has any impact... |
That report in the press re MAB is going to put the leisure business under more pressure.
Don't expect any let up soon but even more scrutiny.
Pubs and hospitality businesses don't have enough problems
Be safe |
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