March Networks Share Discussion Threads

[lordcoco] 18/1/2006 14:17

Looks likely to have a fair old mark down at open, currently showing $28.25 which I think is roughly where we are now.

Could be pushed down to $26.50 which would appear to be a strong support level, if it is pushed down there I'd be very suprised if there wasn't a major bounce off that level.

edit - just risen to $28.76

[sranmal] 18/1/2006 12:42

I tend to ignore early morning UK trading - will have to wait and see what TSX does.

[lordcoco] 18/1/2006 12:20

Anyone else starting to think this is looking a little overdone now? I daren't even look at the chart.

Can't see the business slowing that significantly even if the wider market takes a turn for the worse, maybe a p/e of 30x might start to look a little fanciful though.

A good 40% off latest analyst forecast now, I imagine at some point soon this is going to start looking attractive to the bulls (I hope).

[plantronics] 17/1/2006 18:50

Another continuing its nice rise is HSP



Check out Hargreaves - HSP - looks good for 450p to me!

[rogerl] 17/1/2006 16:24

Any thoughts on how far down this will go? I set a close sell limit and sold at 1535 a few days ago, what price to buy back in?

[lordcoco] 16/1/2006 15:49

March have two technology partners in intelligent video content analysis:



&



Also an intersting report, not sure how old it is (may have to regeister to access - free):





Network Video Camera Surveillance Market Exceeds Expectations


In its latest report on the video surveillance market, IMS Research has revised upwards its forecast for the network camera market, due to faster than expected customer acceptance of this new technology. IMS now forecasts that the world network camera market will grow at a CAGR of 53% to exceed $1 billion by 2009.

The IMS report cites several reasons for the upgraded forecast, including heightened awareness and availability of network cameras following a flood of new product announcements during 2005. The limited choice of network camera models had previously been a barrier to growth, but potential customers now have a much wider selection of models from a greater number of suppliers.

There has also been a shift in the product mix away from basic, low-end cameras in favour of professional, higher value products, such as megapixel network cameras and network dome cameras. The result is that network cameras are now suitable for use in the majority of surveillance applications.

IMS Research predicts that the next generation of network cameras will have *embedded video content analysis* capability to detect various behaviours or events. The first products are forecast to hit the market within the next twelve months.

(continues)

[sranmal] 16/1/2006 15:35

From the TGP BB:

IPfocus magazine. FEB 06

Market Study- The worldwide market for CCTV and Video Surveillance Equipment.

Simon Harris
Senior Analyst- IMS Research

"The video surveillance market is evolving at a faster pace than ever before. The trend from analogue CCTV to fully digital IP based video surveillance is now gaining momentum and generating significant market growth. In addition, the market for intelligent video content analysis software is about to take-off. Both trends will ensure that the video surveillance market grows strongly for many years to come".

We know about the trend from analogue to digital, but what are MNW supposedly looking to acquire - software comapnies, according to the recent article for which I put the link in the header. The SCSW initial write-up also stated that MNW were looking to expand in the s/w side where the margins are much higher than h/w.

[sranmal] 12/1/2006 10:10

In the absence of my being able to moderate....

saltedcrab - 12 Jan'06 - 09:59 - 656 of 656 (Filtered)

[saltedcrab] 12/1/2006 09:59

check out batm

[sranmal] 12/1/2006 09:19

Interview (link in header) stated they'd be setting up sales office (IIRC) early this year, but nothing heard since. They target the top 50 (I think) banks, retail co's, etc, so would expect progress in second half of this year. I thought Thresher's had agreed to take over about 200 Unwins stores, if so, they could become a customer themselves??

PS. Header updated with various stuff.

[milesy] 12/1/2006 09:14

"...with further progress in Europe". Have any details been published regarding progress made to date in Europe? Unwins seemed to be the only major development they highlighted that I'm aware of, and that's now out of the window following Unwins' collapse.

It's been noted here before that they've got tons on their plate with US markets alone, but I'd like to understand what developments if any there are on this side of the pond.

Chris

[sranmal] 11/1/2006 22:45

Excellent article, I'll include the link in the header (prob over the w/e) and add the updated RBC forecasts.

[sivadnoj] 11/1/2006 21:22

Great find, my Lord. This certainly seems to be catching the eye of analysts and media alike. While the single customer dependence keeps cropping up as a negative, I'm surprised there are no references to the outstanding patent litigation. Or has it been settled now?

[lordcoco] 11/1/2006 21:08

A bit of a must-read, sums things up as they are at present extremely well imo.

[lordcoco] 11/1/2006 16:49

RBC raise target to C$37

Pinched from another board:

As we enter 2006 we are rolling forward to C2007 as the basis of our MN
target calculation. Our target increases to $37 (from $30) as we expect
continued operational and share price momentum.
Investment Opinion
• Risk/Reward Proposition Remains Compelling, In Our View: MN has
performed very well operationally over the past two years, with
exceptional growth again this past quarter. The shares have also
performed exceptionally well, though MN trades at multiples only slightly
above peers despite its superior growth rate and 'pure play' status on
Digital Video surveillance.
• Strong Revenue Momentum Has Been Achieved Through Promising
Wins: Large-scale deployments with banks, retailers and transportation
companies spanning multiple years generate a solid backlog with clear
visibility. With several large deals announced late in 2005, we expect
enterprise deployments (in all 3 key verticals) to continue into 2006, with
further progress in Europe.
• Concern of Customer Concentration Should Subside Over Time:
MN's largest customer still contributes to nearly half of the company's
sales, which remains a primary area of concern. However we anticipate
this exposure will decrease as mgmt strives to diversify its customer base.
• Still Reasonably Valued On Stronger Growth Outlook: The 175%
increase in MN shares from its $12 IPO price has been driven by
outstanding execution and several increases in EPS estimates over the past
several quarters. On the C2007 earnings outlook (which has increased
successively over the past 4 quarters, MN trades at roughly 7% premium
to peers at 22.5x C2007E EPS. However given MN's higher growth
profile (69% CAGR for 2004-7E) and 'pure play' status in DV
surveillance, we feel a slightly higher premium is warranted.
• Valuation: We have rolled our valuation basis forward to C2007 and
raised our price target accordingly. Our revised target price of $37.00
(from $30.00) reflects 25x C2007E EPS of $1.47 (previously 26x F2007E
EPS of $1.16). This multiple is a 20% discount to the current premium for
MN relative to peer companies on a C2006E basis, and corresponds to our
expected EPS growth rate for MN over the next 3-5 years. We continue
to rate March Networks Outperform.

[lasata] 11/1/2006 15:50

Looking towards new highs in Toronto.

[sranmal] 11/1/2006 14:52

Cheers jon, info added to header.

[lordcoco] 11/1/2006 14:35

Lol, thanks jon.

[sivadnoj] 11/1/2006 14:28

Here's how....

MN NP says analyst recommends getting in step with March
Stockwatch
244 words
11 January 2006
Canada Stockwatch
English
(c) 2006 Canjex Publishing Ltd.
March Networks Corp (TSX:MN)

Shares Issued 15,932,545

Last Close 1/9/2006 $33.10

Wednesday January 11 2006 - In the News

The National Post reports in its Wednesday edition that March Networks is starting to reap the benefits of having the right technology at the right time. The Post's Mark Evans writes that March's digital video surveillance equipment is getting more interest from banks, retailers and transport firms such as railways and subways. March shares have nearly doubled since the end of October to $32.95 Tuesday. It went public at $12 last April. Wellington West Capital Markets analyst Greg Reid believes March stock still has legs. Mr. Reid raised his 12-month target price to $40 from $33 using a 30 times price-earnings ratio. He believes March's sales will climb from $42.7-million in the fiscal year ended April 30, 2005, to $76.2-million in 2006 and $106.5-million in 2007. He also believes profits will increase from $6.3-million in 2005 to $17.1-million in 2006 and $22.8-million in 2007. March has been winning kudos for its technology, particularly in the banking sectors in the United States and Mexico, says Mr. Reid. Tech entrepreneur Terry Matthews chairs March. Mr. Reid says March's stock could jump on announcements of wins on high-profile transit contracts, he said.

[lordcoco] 11/1/2006 14:03

I'm wondering if the large trade today (10k) was in fact a buy, for the last few days the online limits have been pretty poor, around 150 bid - 1500 offer, today they are 1500 bid - 1000 offer. Seems unlikely that mm would have taken 10k @ 15p above bid price as they have been knocking it down on small sales recently.

Just a thought, also the recent raise in target to $40 by W West is encouraging, especially in the abscence of any news. I wonder how they reached this figure?

[lordcoco] 10/1/2006 14:01

Found link re Wellington West:



It's true!

sorry try this one:

https://www.tdcanada.wallst.com/tdw/canada/public/stocks/news/news.asp?docKey=1-BT20060109002774-0F9TQC5Q5J2MLDQDT6JHFA1D1E&Source=DJNF

[mitzis] 10/1/2006 10:33

I had a $40 target myself lordcoco but I am expecting more like $50 long term..

[lordcoco] 10/1/2006 09:32

This was posted yesterday on a US board:


Wellington West Raises March Networks Tgt To C$40 >MN.T

9:16am ET (Dow Jones Newswires)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-09-06 0915ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

-----------

Wellington West is one of the analysts covering March.

Unfortunately the post was made by someone who has an uncannily similar name to one of the serial rampers resident on ADVFN, if someone could varify the above it would be very useful - so far I've failed to find reference to it.

[spec12] 10/1/2006 09:25

frances2 - 7 Jul'05 - 08:05 - 84 of 640

MNW - one day this will be £18 a share I feel


Looks like the above is going to be a quality call soon.


I took a punt on INDIGOVISION (IND) last week and the success of March was a big factor. With IND's mkt cap at £24m I'm hoping we can emulate.

best
Spec

[lordcoco] 09/1/2006 13:45

Suprised to see the drop seeming as TSX rose 3.2% friday, then again, I was suprised to see such a rise on the TSX given that, I think, the price now exceeds forecasts.

Showing C$35 at pre open, if it holds anywhere near that at open then there should be a decent reaction here.

Tech sector looking pretty bullish.