Manganese Bronze Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 22/10/2008 11:25

Did anyone else think the cautionary statement was unusual for an IMS RNS ?

[ezodisy] 22/10/2008 11:02

I also sold further at 155 -- the illogical bounce was too seductive. Thanks for the info chaps

[tanners] 22/10/2008 10:39

shanksaj........same here; the only problem is the miniscule amount they'll offer on the short side!

[macansy77] 22/10/2008 10:39

davidosh - How can they possibly avoid a funding crisis with losses mounting rapidly?

from what i'm hearing they can't...

[shanklin] 22/10/2008 10:34

Thanks Rapier

[davidosh] 22/10/2008 10:27

The October figure for cab sales will be the killer....

No Bahrain sales (at a loss) to include in figures

TX4 fires hit for whole month (there were a few sales in September before the news flow )

Economy now in downspin

Mercedes taking market share.



I cannot see them selling more than 75 cabs in this month and less than 200 more to the year end. The first half of 2009 will be even worse and cabbies will be hit hardest and on the warpath against LTI for their money.

How can they possibly avoid a funding crisis with losses mounting rapidly ?

[rapier686] 22/10/2008 10:19

Shanklin, SMMT = Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. Whence the figures you quoted came from. If you recall Queeny drew our attention to them as a datasource.

[shanksaj] 22/10/2008 10:15

Added to short with IG Index.

[cliffyburger] 22/10/2008 10:02

Frankly, after that trading statement, I'm amazed that the shares are currently trading at circa 160p. In my view, a drop below £1 should have been on the cards today. Oh well, let's wait for the inevitable broker downgrades...

Cliff (short MNGS)

[rapier686] 22/10/2008 09:59

Recall that SMMT finally came up with a Sep-08 figure of 297.

106+54+297 = 457 which is pretty close to the 459 you're looking for. And 40% down on SMMT's Q3 07 figure of 757.

[davidosh] 22/10/2008 09:09

The Bahrain sales are not only at a loss but cost aditional amounts to convert the cabs sitting in the field over to left hand drive one presumes...

[shanklin] 22/10/2008 09:03

Re UK sales, in today's IMS, MNGS state they've sold 1628 in the first 9 months of 2008 vs 2604 last year, a drop of 37.5% YTD

In the interim results, they stated sales in the first six months of 2008 were 1169 a drop of over 30% versus the corresponding number in 2007, a number they did not provide. Assuming the drop was say 31%, this means that in 2007 they would have sold 1694 vehicles in the first six months.

On this basis, comparing Q3 numbers, 2008 is 459 sales vs 2007 of 910. So, sales in Q3 are circa half of last year's numbers. Given the problems with the TX4 I assume the LFL sales drop will be even higher in Q4. Also, some of this 459 may be the sale of 200 taxis to Bahrain where the sales price seems to have been discounted significantly to the extent that each of these sales may give rise to a loss.

Yuk!!

[shanksaj] 22/10/2008 09:00

Well at least they were brave enough to announce on the day they said they would. But it doesn't give much away on the numbers does it? It looks as if they have not pencilled in any estimate for the compensation claims and yet admit they are still not going to break even. What price when the full extent of the claims come in?!! Ouch. There is rather too much vagueness in publishing the bad news, and demonstrates they haven't yet got a grip of all their problems with the TX4. And did the 8000 overseas sales include the taxis going to Middle East at less than production cost? Someone above said they were selling of taxis to Dubai/Bahrain(?) at £15k? Can this be confirmed with the source of info please. Thanks.

Share price fell from 169p to 125p in first 15 minutes or so, but has now recovered to 159p.

[queeny2] 22/10/2008 08:58

where does this leave them on cash burn, ignoring for the moment the claims, but including the £4m?

also can someone remind me of the terms of the Geely Shanghai jv?

[davidosh] 22/10/2008 08:33

The brokers will be doing further downgrades that is for sure !

[davidosh] 22/10/2008 08:32

If they are admitting to those additional costs and now saying that they cannot meet the break even target which we know is impossible with monthly sales weakening further then loss around £3M even without the £4m hit on the reworking. They are also going to need good legal backing with hundreds and thousands of driver claims heading their way.

I cannot see how they avoid a funding crisis within next three months. The lawyers will take one look at the company size and pending claims and probably ask for their fees in advance LOL

[macansy77] 22/10/2008 08:02

ezodisy - i wasn't joking either..!

[ezodisy] 22/10/2008 08:00

macansy77 - 22 Oct'08 - 07:48 - 623 of 624

lol!

[davidosh] 22/10/2008 07:54

That is the first time I have seen a cautionary statement like that in an RNS. I see that they are also for the first time admitting that there could be liability for the real headache which is all those £30m mooted driver compensation claims for loss of earnings.

[macansy77] 22/10/2008 07:48

naughty naughty MNGS, did we forget to mention the bit about raising funds??

[kab6] 22/10/2008 07:45

So, if I am reading this right, they will make a loss as they are not breaking even at current production and they have to take a 4mill hit for the tx4 fires. Share price should take a beating.

[welsheagle] 22/10/2008 07:21

Manganese Bronze Interim Management Statement




RNS Number : 3566G
Manganese Bronze Hldgs PLC
22 October 2008


Interim Management Statement

22nd October 2008


Manganese Bronze Holdings PLC (''Manganese Bronze'' or the ''Group''), the leading
manufacturer of the distinctive London taxi, today
announces its interim management statement for the period 1 July to 21 October 2008.
Current Trading
Trading in the UK continues to be impacted by the uncertain macro economic conditions, as
we previously flagged in our interim results
in July. As reported then, the Board believes that demand for new vehicles in the second half
of the year will follow the normal seasonal
pattern and be below that of the first half. UK business conditions continue to be uncertain,
which makes forecasting the level of demand
for new vehicles more challenging. Overall vehicles sales for the nine months to the end of
September are down 37.5%, to 1,628 vehicles
versus 2,604 vehicles in the comparable period last year. This is due to a combination of
uncertain economic conditions and the fact that
the comparative period saw a near record sales volume following the successful launch of the
TX4.
Earnings continue to be negatively impacted by three factors: the strength of the Euro
increasing the cost of engines purchased from
Italy; the costs of supporting the joint venture set up with engineers; and the cost of the
international sales and marketing team.
We have responded to lower sales and higher working capital by reducing vehicle output to
lower inventory levels, implementing an
aggressive reduction in operating costs, and headcount reductions. The result of these actions
is a 15% reduction of the manufacturing
break-even level to approximately 2,000 vehicles per annum.
TX4 Update
LTI, a wholly owned subsidiary of Manganese Bronze PLC, has been carrying out a full and
thorough investigation into the root cause of
the twelve under bonnet fires that have occurred over the last few months in early production
models of the TX4 taxi.
As announced on 26 September 2008, a product recall of all TX4 vehicles was commenced with
product actions including modifications to
the emission control equipment, the heat management system and under bonnet insulation. To
date nearly 400 vehicles have had the rework
completed and as a result there are now 600 vehicles off the road awaiting the rework. There
are an additional 4400 operational vehicles
that will require the rework and this is planned to be completed by the end of February 2009.
We still expect the costs of the recall to be approximately £4m, and that this will be
fully expensed in the current financial period to
31 December 2008. Manganese Bronze is already in discussions with its insurers and relevant
suppliers to establish liability and
opportunities for recovery of some of these costs. When legal liability has been determined
there may be additional costs for driver
compensation for the period the vehicles are off the road.
Progress on China and International Sales
Our joint venture in China, Shanghai LTI, offers the greatest potential to secure the
long-term profitable future for the Group. On 25
June, we were very pleased to report further excellent progress with the start of prototype
production on schedule. The prototype vehicles
are now being subjected to the planned programme of thorough testing leading to the start of
commercial production at the end of 2008.
Contracted procurement savings for Chinese produced parts for our Coventry facility are in
line with market expectations with the impact
of lower cost Chinese parts now expected to make a positive contribution in 2009.
Further encouraging progress has been made with the development of the Group's
international sales pipeline. We now have signed
memoranda for over 8,000 vehicles over a period of three years with deliveries commencing in
early 2009, and there remains a significant
pipeline of further potential customers.
Initial production in Shanghai will meet the homologation requirements for China. European
Whole Vehicle Type Approval (''EWVTA'') is on
target to be achieved in the first half of 2009. EWVTA is the homologation standard for the
markets for which we have signed MOUs. The plan
for homologation compliance for the North and South American markets is not yet finalised but
we still believe North America represents the
biggest market opportunity for the Shanghai built TX4.
Prospects
The UK market place remains challenging and the Board does not expect that UK sales will
exceed the manufacturing break-even point in
2008. Shanghai LTI remains on plan to deliver a step change in the Group's prospects and
financial performance with significant profit
contributions from mid 2009 to the group from procurement savings and international sales.
Cautionary statement
This Interim Management Statement ("IMS") has been prepared solely to provide additional
information to shareholders to access the
Group's strategies and the potential for those strategies to succeed. The IMS should not be
relied on by any other party for any other
purpose.
The IMS contains certain forward-looking statements. These statements are made by the
directors in good faith based on the information
available to them up to the time of their approval of this report and such statements should
be treated with caution due to the inherent
uncertainties, including both economic and business risk factors, underlying any such
forward-looking information.