Manganese Bronze Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 13/10/2008 12:13

I seriously think a cash fundraising will be required before the year is out at current cash burn. If the cabbies are unhappy at the compensation situation and delays they could damage the reputation of LTI and consequently the brand by a big joint class action or publicity campaign showing the way they have been treated. They are unlikely to buy a TX4 with so many recalls attached to them and confidence low. Sales in September were down about 60% and efforts are being concentrated on getting 1100 cabs back on the roads.

[queeny2] 13/10/2008 11:11

It would be interesting, of course, re the cash, but there will be waffle etc re insurance and so on. More interesting, imo, to poll London cabbies on which brand their next cab will be, on current residual values, and to get some idea what on earth is/will happen in China. We know new taxi mkt is fvcked anyway for time being recession-wise, but loss of brand/franchise really would be serious given the totally marginal nature of profits even with 100% of the mkt.

I may call the SMMT and ask about Merc London cab registrations.

[davidosh] 13/10/2008 11:06

Does anyone fancy emailing the FD and stating that having seen all the recall information could he advise on the full cost of all the recalls ?? I cannot believe £4m will be anywhere near enough now the delays and full information is out.

[queeny2] 13/10/2008 10:44

davidosh that's heavy stuff. thanks for intel.

[imabastard] 13/10/2008 10:34

It's better (for TAN) that they do all recalls and solve the issues prior to the Electric Taxi rolling off production in December/Q1 2009.

[ezodisy] 12/10/2008 16:23

well for those of us short this keeps getting better and better. Thanks for the posts davidosh, I will most likely sell this further on any brief rallies.

[davidosh] 12/10/2008 13:57

Jeeeeez checking further it looks like the compulsory inspections three weeks ago may have thrown up more problems than just the engines...



3186 TX4s recalled as brakes may fail....

The brake disc to hub mount bolts may be loose which could, when the brakes are applied, cause judder and noisy braking. This could eventually result in the failure of the retaining bolts and ultimately the disc being detached from the hub.

Plus another 1568 recalled as fuel may leak which is clearly a major fear with the current fires...



Fuel injector pipe to fuel pump may leak. Recall the vehicles that are likely to be affected to reposition the supporting clamp.


What will be the additional cost of all these recalls ??


Taxi owners must really have lost confidence in their TX4 cabs by now..

[davidosh] 12/10/2008 13:14

There has been another recall which is completely unrelated to the fires but once again involves the engine which is starting to become a disaster for the TX4.

A total of 2910 cabs have received a recall notice from VOSA relating to loss of engine power whereby speed reduces to 20mph. Mind you most cabs in London rarely get much past that in traffic...so no rush !!




I wonder if they will combine all the works for that 2910 out of the 5500 or will they need to go straight back in afterwards. The cost of that recall must be in the region of another £0.6 million but that is minor compared to the big issue and of course there has been no RNS relating to that one either.

[davidosh] 12/10/2008 12:45

This TX4 owner is keeping a video diary of his problems and the time it takes to get back to work. It seems that he was told 48hours to get his cab back from the Brewery Road repair shop and it is already 50% behind schedule at 72hours. It will be interesting to see how long it actually takes.



Another cab owner has claimed that compensation needs to be considered for those now desperately wanting to sell their TX4s as the price achievable has collapsed 25% since the fires were first found and confidence in the brand has been hit. The M&O website shows the falling prices in the second hand cab section where £3000 was knocked off most in one month.

[shanksaj] 10/10/2008 12:00

Manganese gets the bronze in a three horse race.

[davidosh] 10/10/2008 11:39

Those drector sales of ALL their holdings at about £6 and then even the bulk amount taken from their options just a month ago following those dire interims tells you more about the picture and view they had !! I think an RNS with full disclosure of the poor sales and revenue position and more about the TX4 potential liability and costs will be the final blow. How much confidence will an international buyer have in the Chinese cab if the engine and compartment design and layout is exactly the same as the 12 that have caught fire with the same engine manufacturer. They have already admitted it is a short term fix !!!

If I was a buyer then I would say come back in a couple of years with the new model and engine to talk to me....by then the world economy will be in better shape and I will know how many I need !!

How many firm orders with a delivery date do they have ? I suspect none at all and far worse the market for selling a few here just gets worse and worse.

This is not a pretty picture

[ezodisy] 10/10/2008 10:46

well this is more like it. May the fall continue up to and through the coming report.

[rthak] 10/10/2008 09:18

Cliffyburger - 9 Oct'08 - 16:52 - 554 of 555

I'm well into profit now too - supporting some of my LNG spread bets!!!

[domwilliams] 10/10/2008 09:06

And what's your profit looking like today, cliffy ? ;o)

What are the chances of another after-hours RNS on the recall this evening?

[cliffyburger] 09/10/2008 16:52

Thanks, davidosh, for your excellent tip last month. MNGS shares have fallen 24%, but my 4x leveraged short is now showing a 96% profit. Niiiiice! :0)

Cliff

[shanksaj] 09/10/2008 16:07

Thanks David. Increased short on the back of your post.

Whenever I think of Manganese Bronze's troubles I can't help remembering that famous (Coal Board?) advert (with a slight adjustment):-

"Come home in a real fire."

[ezodisy] 09/10/2008 15:30

cheers david, nice find there. Down 5% so far today, hopefully more to come.

[davidosh] 09/10/2008 14:30

I have just been advised that the chinese jv production is about six weeks behind schedule and that the only engine they could source is the exact same one as used in the TX4s that are currently being recalled and modified....Oh my lordy !!

Apparently the company note stated.... Due to the lack of a
local producer with the required quality, the JV will use the current Italian engine supplier.
This is hopefully a short term fix until Geely can produce engines to the required standard.

Not a promising or convincing start and probably the reason for the delays !!

[wig123] 08/10/2008 19:32

Thanx Dom., what is the general view of what statement will contain? will the management come clean this time with regards state of company? have a feeling there was a bit of a cover up in last report, but cant be sure , just a bit of a gut feeling.

[domwilliams] 08/10/2008 19:02

wig - IMS is due out on 21st October.

[wig123] 08/10/2008 19:01

anyone know when next interims are out, was under the impression was toward the end of the month. tia

[davidosh] 08/10/2008 18:58

the analyst....if you go two weeks further back to mid June then it has halved in price. The key fact is whether it can hold up against further significant financial problems which may directly affect the company and its trading. Cashflow is king in this market and their position on that score must be dire.

Just continue the sales pattern downwards from the position at the interims and add the current TX4 nightmare and the costs attached.

[the analyst] 08/10/2008 18:33

I find it quite bizarre, given the news, that this is actually one of the strongest performing shares in the market since the beginning of July.

Most likely forced selling of short positions, imo, but maybe they have another contract in Asia lined up?