Manganese Bronze Share Discussion Threads

[domwilliams] 15/10/2008 14:48

Cliff, IMS is due out next Tuesday 21st October.

[cliffyburger] 15/10/2008 14:08

I closed my MNGS short on Friday in order to put more into SOCO International (LSE: SIA). However, I went short again yesterday at 200.5p. In time, I expect MNGS to be trading under £1, and perhaps as low as 50p. Indeed, given its parlous financial state, dreadful sales and awful cash flow, a rescue rights issue is almost inevitable.

Watch for the interim management statement on 21 October [edited]-- and if it's delayed or cancelled, feel free to assume the worst! ;0)

Cliff

[felix99] 15/10/2008 12:39

You need to find out if MNGS finance it themsleves or the finance is with an external party. Either way I guess MNGS will get hit with the bill ?

[davidosh] 15/10/2008 10:30

I have also heard that hundreds of cabbies have suspended paying LTI their monthly lease payments as they cannot use the cab for which they made the agreement. The union advised them to do that I think.

It may be the finance house that takes the initial hit and MNGS probably just get commission....not sure if MNGS have a profit share or pure commission with the finance house. It is Lloyds who back them and may be involved in the trade finance so they must be feeling very exposed to this fiasco.

If they cut the money supply it will b.e difficult to replace

[verulamium] 15/10/2008 10:27

queeny - 297 is the LTI number, 27 Mercs.

[davidosh] 14/10/2008 21:55

Do they have to be registered here even if they are being shipped overseas ? If that is true then the home use registrations are even smaller than expected as I had pecilled in around 150 so 97 would be really awful in the second busiest month of the year. The cut price deal for Bahrain means they are instantly losing about £13k on each vehicle compared to the actual cost of producing it.

[domwilliams] 14/10/2008 21:33

297? Does the data include registrations destined for overseas markets? Remember, LTI have fulfilled a 200 order for Bahrain (ave sale price of £15,300 though).

[verulamium] 14/10/2008 21:13

The SMMT data has now been corrected and reposted on their website. It shows September registrations surprisingly high at 297. It's still 20% down though on last September, and presumably they've been priced to sell. The YTD number is 1587, 38% down on last year.

Good find Queeny - thanks!

[davidosh] 14/10/2008 15:54

At this rate the total cost including loss of earnings is heading far higher than the market cap of MNGS and the adverse publicity if the cabbies join together to get satisfaction will affect any future sales. That situation will be far worse if AngryCabbie has anything to do with it...here is his latest installment and his cab has now been at Brewery Road for a sixth day

[crystalclear] 14/10/2008 15:28

He estimated claims at £30m.
Whether some insurance will pay that, and whether the figure is realistic or plucked out of thin air I have no idea.

[crystalclear] 14/10/2008 15:22

I spoke to a cabbie that was waiting for a fare today. He said the problem is the turbo is close to the fuel line.

[queeny2] 14/10/2008 13:16

if you two are prepared to go offline it's all in spreadsheet format and u can email it to each other.

glad you like it, don't know why i never mentioned it before, I look at it for other companies too, eg Northgate, as it tells you by implication about residual prices.

[rapier686] 14/10/2008 11:31

I've extended the table back to Jan 05

Correlating the data with LTI statements

6M to Jun 08 : 1130, LTI say 1112 UK sales
6M to Jan 07 : 1381, LTI say 1342
12M to Jul 07 : 3156, LTI say 3120
17M to Dec 07 : 4180, LTI say 4147

which, given there will no doubt be timing discepancies between sales and registrations, seems a reasonable fit.

[davidosh] 14/10/2008 11:20

Excellent Rapier very many thanks...September could be attrocius when it is a peak selling month. I cannot imagine registrations will be much above 100 and maybe 150 tops as the recalls started in early September. Last year they sold 372 by comparison so overall sales are probably down 65%.In May and June they halved and then in July the sales went down from 289 to just 106 (-63%) and that was without the Mercedes in full competition.

It looks like the Merc sales are somewhere around 30% of the market already. That said it is a rapidly declining market in this economic environment.

[rapier686] 14/10/2008 11:01

Lovely data source - thanks for the lead.
David, I just have been copying out the figures. Here's as far as I've got, LTI taxi registrations.

Unfortunately they've messed up the recent release and the XLS file duplicates August's rather than supplying September's data.

Jan-05 245
Feb-05 82
Mar-05 320
Apr-05 264
May-05 205
Jun-05 209
Jul-05 215
Aug-05 69
Sep-05 309
Oct-05 184
Nov-05 215
Dec-05 111
Jan-06 231
Feb-06 79
Mar-06 341
Apr-06 183
May-06 178
Jun-06 240
Jul-06 228
Aug-06 142
Sep-06 291
Oct-06 112
Nov-06 362
Dec-06 141
Jan-07 333
Feb-07 138
Mar-07 469
Apr-07 273
May-07 310
Jun-07 296
Jul-07 289
Aug-07 96
Sep-07 372
Oct-07 217
Nov-07 185
Dec-07 154
Jan-08 103
Feb-08 114
Mar-08 435
Apr-08 169
May-08 163
Jun-08 146
Jul-08 106
Aug-08 54

[davidosh] 14/10/2008 10:48

It says I need to pay £220 for the data unless I am doing it wrong !!

Can you not copy the relevant recent figures for say this year by month please ?

[queeny2] 14/10/2008 10:21

davidosh it's on SMMT website, van and truck monthly data, download the data and look at the excel file, not the word one. all broken out month by month and ytd.

[queeny2] 14/10/2008 01:02

would have to go thru the SMMt figures, all on the website

[davidosh] 13/10/2008 22:16

OH Dear the Angry Cabby is still exactly that...His cab is still at the workshop after five days.




And this is a classic which I had not seen before...

[davidosh] 13/10/2008 16:16

Hi Queeny

Do you have the figures for the last three months on LTI regs....I seem to remember July was just 56. The break even average figure is 167 per month now but was nearly 200 in H1

[shanklin] 13/10/2008 16:01

Blimey, given all these fires, I thought that was the new recommended headwear for taxi drivers.

[queeny2] 13/10/2008 16:00

has it been posted here before, but Sep (they say august but i think typo) there were 54 LTI and 14 Merc registered.

[crystalclear] 13/10/2008 15:58

Can anyone tell me what transmission is in these TX4s?

If it is the transmission that is faulty, they the problem would just go away if the Chinese TX4s use a 6-speed transmission from Antonov-Loncin.

[queeny2] 13/10/2008 15:53

osh, I've lost track of their cash pro forma now since the chinese got involved, what is it? if you're right, wow