Manganese Bronze Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 08/10/2008 17:55

The question really has to be whether they can survive without a major cash call even before they get to 2009 ??

Add to that whether there is now any confidence in the only product they have not just here but....How are they viewing this overseas ? Do they want a cab that has had a major recall in the UK ? Is the worldwide downturn going to damage potential sales anyway ?

The Edison research note was paid for by the company....The interim management statement will have to give more financial detail and there may be an indication of the need for a rights issue or placing IMO. An RNS to update on the recall costs is another possibility.

[shanksaj] 08/10/2008 17:12

Was it Warren Buffett or Benjamin Graham who confided that, in a previous downturn, he was SELLING shares on a PE of 3 so he could buy stock on a PE of 2? Perhaps the analyst recommending Manganese "because its cheap" on a forward PE of 7 ought to read up a bit more. Analyst, wakey, wakey. This is late 2008, not early 2007.

[shanksaj] 08/10/2008 17:08

Of course when the dust settles in the markets investors will take one look at Manganese and pour in what little remaining cash they have left, because they will simply not be risk averse at all and because at a possible PE of 7 for 2010 its such a bargain..... yeah?

[marben100] 08/10/2008 16:52

davidosh,

Cab sharing is common in London as well as in the regions AFAIK. My London cab driving relative always had a partner on his cab, to help spread the costs. One worked days and the other nights.

Quite incredible how little MNGS has fallen under today's dire market conditions. I wonder whether there's a price support operation going on? Volumes traded were tiny, so it'd cost very little to artificially prop up the price.

As you say, I guess we should see the real impact when the next financial news is released.

[cliffyburger] 07/10/2008 18:49

"This information is, of course, based on what I have read and my opinion - it should not be relied upon under any circumstances."

Spoken like a true lawyer, rthak! ;0)))

[davidosh] 07/10/2008 16:11

The cabbies in the regions very often share a cab and work shifts so what will be the implications there. Surely that will mean potentially twice as many claims ? MNGS and LTI are well aware that cab drivers share cabs and are encouraging them to do so further in the current situation to assist others without one.

There is a shortage of rental cabs and no more available that have passed the PCO approval. I understand that two thirds of drivers simply do not have a means to work.

[rthak] 07/10/2008 16:02

davidosh - 7 Oct'08 - 15:09 - 538 of 538

Generally speaking protection is afforded under the Sales of Goods Act 1979 which implies that goods must be of a (1)satisfactory quality and (2)fit for their purpose into every business to business contract (unless specifically contracted out of). If either of the implied terms are breached (the onus is on the buyer to prove so) then the buyer will have a claim for breach of contract.

The remedies for such a claim are:
The buyer must give the seller a reasonable chance to repair the item after which can demand a replacement or refund. What is reasonable depends on the circumstances. In the above case the repair/replacement option was not an option as by the time the 'good' had been repaired, it would be too late to use.

In addition, the buyer may have a claim for consequential loss (i.e. Loss as a direct consequence of the manufacturer's breach of contract). This is likely to be the cab drivers reasonable losses from not being able to ferry around passengers and obtain taxi fares. Working against the buyer is that they do have a duty to mitigate (i.e. minimise their losses). For example if they used to make £100 per day in taxi fares, could they now rent a taxi for £50 and still make £100 in taxi fares reducing their loss from £100 to £50 per day? If so, the court is only likely to award £50 per day for consequential loss.

This information is, of course, based on what I have read and my opinion - it should not be relied upon under any circumstances.

[verulamium] 07/10/2008 12:12

Incredible to see the word "conservative" mangled by a forecast like that. Reminds me of Gordon Brown's misuse of the word "prudent"...

[the analyst] 07/10/2008 11:35

Saint Helens Capital Note:

"Calmer Waters Ahead

The current issues faced in 2008 should not divert investor's
attention too far away from the bigger picture with regards to the
potential of Manganese Bronze's business. The joint venture in
China is commercially attractive and increases the scale of the
business by a factor of ten. The current share price is discounting a
lot of the short term concerns offering investors a good entry point to
benefit from the exponential growth in profitability Chinese production
will deliver. On conservative assumptions the shares trade on a PE
of 7 times 2010 earnings.
Short term earnings under pressure – 2008 the perfect storm
Manganese face the perfect storm in 2008 with deteriorating trading conditions, a new
competitor in the London market, the recall of 5,500 vehicles due to safety issues and costs
relating to the JV. In response to these headwinds management have taken action to reduce
the cost base dramatically reducing the break even point for the business.
Long term earnings on course – Potential starting to be realised
Commercial production of the Chinese TX4 is on schedule to begin in late 2008 for the
Chinese market and early 2009 everywhere else. The early response from customers,
outside Asia, has been encouraging. Since March Memoranda of Understanding (MOU's)
have been signed for 6,000 vehicles, by 11 different customers, in Europe the Middle East
and Africa. It is too early to quantify the effect that the recent fires may have, if any, on
orders going forward. The issues will have been resolved before full marketing commences
which should limit the longer term effects. Estimates are conservative based on orders
currently attained for international sales, assuming no further orders for 2009-2011.
Valuation – good entry point to benefit from China
2010 forecasts assume sales in the UK of just 2,200 vehicles, substantially below the
average achieved over the last ten years, and 2,000 internationally while the JV will begin to
contribute on sales of 8,000. These conservative forecasts would put the shares on
perspective PE of 7 times. Calmer Waters Ahead
Share Price

Price/Target 265p/515p "

[davidosh] 06/10/2008 17:15

I think the big fall will be when the directors release the IMS in two weeks time if there is no major adverse financial announcement before then of course.

The revenues are dramatically and significantly down ....probably as much as 60% so far in H2. The costs are meanwhile mounting fast and the TX4 fire fiasco must be considerably more than the £4m already estimated. Not one single cab by today had left the workshops and been approved to return to the roads. Many cabs are shared for use outside London so potentially twice the damages in any claim.

How much longer will the trade finance be available if the cabs are being put into stock rather than achieving a sale for which the finance was originally intended ??

[felix99] 06/10/2008 17:06

market not rational. This will probably drop under £2 when mkt rallies 500 pts:-)

[ezodisy] 06/10/2008 16:47

Considering all the bad news leaking out--thanks David--you'd think this should be under 200p by now. As it is we didn't even break 10% down today. Hoping for more decline tomorrow...

[davidosh] 05/10/2008 11:32

There are still lots of unhappy cab drivers commenting on the forums about the confidence they have in the current solution being put forward by LTI. Here is one..

The heating issue intrigues me.
In previous posts,a driver has stated the VM engine was rejected by the Italian army because it was running too hot,yet still LTI used it.
Before the fires,'angrycabbie' on YouTube complained about amongst other things,'heat,heat,heat'.So have other drivers.
I don't think any work is hotter for an engine than taxi work especially in London where average speed is about 11mph.
Why did LTI enlarge the front grill from the TX11 to TX4?
To overcome the heat problems they already knew about?

This should be taken into account when LTI try to pass the buck onto VM.

LTI knew they where getting an engine that would run hot,especially in London and other cities and making the front grill bigger for improved air flow hasn't worked.

This story is go to run,run and run...

[domwilliams] 04/10/2008 21:54

PCO notice confirming that all other TX4's will be called on for the remedial work once the initial recall is complete.

[ezodisy] 04/10/2008 20:14

Thanks for the info davidosh. I think I will sell this further this coming week.

[davidosh] 04/10/2008 17:19

There has clearly been a delay for training and sourcing all the necessary parts required in the rework. LTI claim they have recruited an additional 100 plus engineers, mechanics and administrators to handle the situation. I supect even at 50 cabs per day this will take the best part of six months to undertake completion on every TX4 built since its introduction.

I simply cannot see the final cost without even contemplating the compensation issue being just £4m. I think that double that figure will be closer to the mark as the labour and specialist engineer costs must be around £3m alone and the cost of all the parts must be considerable and at least a few hundred pounds per cab.

The next RNS from the company will hopefully be more comprehensive on the financial implications and surely they should have warned on the full year forecasts as they cannot possibly meet expectations for this year or next.

[davidosh] 04/10/2008 16:48

Just found this too...update from lunchtime yesterday


Latest Update 3rd October 2008
This update was issued at 1pm on Friday 3rd October.

Many owners and drivers will have by now expected to have been called to bring their TX4 to Mann & Overton for the announced work to be carried out.

We would like to apologise if you have not received a call. There are a number of reasons for this.

Firstly, full 24-hour working has been successfully established at Mann & Overton since 29th September, but so far all the work carried out has been devoted to staff technical training. Over 100 extra staff are being contracted in and so such training is essential if we are to deliver you with the highest standards in quality of workmanship you should rightfully expect.

Secondly, the work we will carry out, together with the parts we will fit to your TX4 will require full and written Public Carriage Office approval. In this regard, we have been instructed by the PCO that we should not call customers in until that approval is formally in place.

Staff training is progressing very well and PCO approval is close to being achieved and so we do hope that within a matter of days from now we can begin to call customers to bring their vehicles in as described in that last LTI Vehicles statement.

Please be assured that we are working around the clock to ensure that the understandable frustration and inconvenience all affected owners and drivers are currently suffering is quickly brought to a conclusion.

All our resources are fully stretched in being devoted to this significant and unprecedented task. We would therefore respectfully ask customers to refrain from calling Mann & Overton or LTI.

[shanklin] 04/10/2008 16:46

Davidosh

Interesting stuff

On 26-Sep-08, LTI's statement included

"The VIN range of the vehicles being investigated ranges from 200000 to 201000."

[davidosh] 04/10/2008 15:21

I picked this info out just now posted yesterday on a taxi blog stating that an LTI email has just gone out recalling ALL TX4s. It does seem genuine with solicitor details. That VIN range suggests up to 11500 vehicles but no doubt half those VINs must be unused as I think only about 6500 have so far been built and nearly 900 of those must remain unsold and in stock or sitting in a field. The email extract..

We are aware of this issue and LTi have e-mailed us today advising that an expanded recall has been made for TX4s in the VIN range of 200000 - 211500, so that replacement parts can be fitted, TX4s cannot be used until rectified, I am in contact with our own Taxi Inspection Unit on this issue.

Regards

Donald

Donald Macleod
Senior Solicitor
Licensing
Tel [phone]

I will try to validate with the PCO


Update ...The PCO helpline on 0207 126 1980 sounds vague with a recorded message that says all TX4 licences remain suspended. It then says the line will reopen on Monday 29th September. Chocolate teapot helpline !!

[felix99] 04/10/2008 14:22

yes I just looked it up .Shame you can;t download it. Copying and pasting eac page is tedious

[ezodisy] 04/10/2008 14:01

From here:



New loan data at the start of each month

[rthak] 04/10/2008 13:35

ezodisy - 4 Oct'08 - 11:11 - 522 of 522

Good inform information - where do you get this kind of info from?

[ezodisy] 04/10/2008 11:11

morning chaps. Just doing the rounds on monthly loan data for those companies I have an interest in. We only have a slight increase here in MNGS though hopefully it'll be enough to send this one further down (if it doesn't implode itself ;) ).

August:

GB0005617013 MANGANESE ORD 25P 2445941.85 18077305.04 13.53%

September:

GB0005617013 MANGANESE ORD 25P 2538009.09 18094450.72 14.02%

[verulamium] 03/10/2008 23:01

daviddosh - no, I'm pretty sure that the Regents Park one was on Park Crescent, south of the park. There were pictures at the time, 2 or 3 weeks ago. I haven't seen your Hampstead one in any news reports, but that's hardly surprising - local news reporting in London is actually amazingly bad.