Mallett Share Discussion Threads

[atlantic57] 26/5/2020 16:58

Well lots of posts today from Martin but I think the gist is be wary....

[atlantic57] 26/5/2020 08:56

Ok guys my ability to read these markets is close to zero
I think I will stick for cash for now.

There are to many variables for me At this time.

[11_percent] 25/5/2020 12:47

a57,

Agreed.

My take is.....MA has now said that the indexes will behave in the same way....ie, DOW will not the same as the Nasdaq.

Also, has produced blogs that contain the DOW and Gold in the same paragraph, which is confusing.

[atlantic57] 25/5/2020 09:55

11 percent I agree
Also gold recent performance has been weak .

Overall Socratese painting a very confusing picture.

[11_percent] 24/5/2020 23:01

19/05/20 – Is 2020 the end of a Energy Trend

So just looking at crude by itself shows that this should be the culmination of a trend rather than the start of a trend as Gates and others would like to profess. That said, the excess in supply is real because they have shut down the global economy with lockdowns which have reduced driving and air travel while also shipping has been disrupted. So 2020 should be at the very least the lowest yearly close.

=================

Oil price is cyclical, so my guess is that...if as Soc says.....2020 year end will be a YEARLY LOW CLOSE.

My guess, the low for the year is in......am using ETFs.....BRNT & CRUD to ride the up-wave.

[atlantic57] 23/5/2020 11:03

Good Summary 11
Some trading opportunities ahead near term

However the main take off for for Gold
And equities seems to be 2022

Thanks

[11_percent] 23/5/2020 10:21

Sat 23/05/20 – Crash of 2020

First paragraph – summary. Capital destruction from lockdown is $30 trillion, global. The stimulation provided by the CBs will not compensate for this. Thus will NOT CREATE hyperinflation…;…the idea is juvenile.

Second paragraph – summary. Must look at the TOTAL contraction. Politicians who have advocated lockdown should be driven from office.

Third paragraph – my interpretation, so if you disagree, let me know.

MA/Soc uses Bifurcation models which are based on Chaos. (I assume Chaos Theory, which he has mentioned in the past.) There is diagram, Monthly (not sure what, gold??) with Bifurcation Points. It also contains a graph, parabola, which I assume shows the Bifurcation Points.

The Bifurcation Points showed April, July and September.
Everything goes chaotic in July 2022.

Even gold finished weak for the close (on Friday) and a turndown still remains within reason (a retest of support for the share markets).

This (ie, the above) may be reflecting that the ECONOMIC CONTRACTION is greater than people think…which $30 trillion.

This signals a recession into 2022…….this will provide the backdrop for defaults on Sovereign Debt …….and this in turn will send the money out of Gov assets and into Private Sector asset (ie shares and the Slingshot).

SUMMARY
No hyperinflation.
Politicians are thick – Ok, we knew that.
The Bifurcation Points (chaos) showed April, July and September. Everything goes chaotic in July 2022.
Still might get dip in share markets.
Recession into 2022……default in Sovereign Debt……….increase in Private assets (shares) = Slingshot.

[atlantic57] 23/5/2020 07:00

Ok today he is talking about Bifurcation points which i interpret as potential points of a market crash.

Increasingly though Socratese appears to be pushing all dates forwards to now 2022.

The main divergence between Socratese and virtually every other talking head is that they all feel that the fed money printing guarantees a gold price/inflation surge .

That is my take.

[atlantic57] 22/5/2020 22:14

Well you only loose if you sell and where their is intrinsic value the share price come back .

Centamin Egypt collapsed to 22p from 76p but the gold was still there it came back strongly back in 2009

[georgethefourth] 22/5/2020 21:54

I think gold, silver, oil and the markets will have a good week next week and maybe the week after and form some kind of blow off top, and then they'll all come crashing down and retest their lows. Or maybe go lower. I don't think gold and silver miners will follow them all the way down though and they'll be relatively strong (although many still halving). Hopefully anyway, otherwise I stand to lose a fair bit...

[atlantic57] 22/5/2020 21:47

I think Gold and crypto will do well from here onwards the trend will be up However we are waiting for the majority of the population to lose faith in the system For real momentum to take over.

Yes you read his post right and it is logical that Amazon should prosper.


The key for me now is whether we get a second opportunity to buy in at lower levels and of course when ie June quarter or December quarter.

[11_percent] 22/5/2020 21:10

I agree gold will have pullbacks....but the trend will continue to be up....this is IMO.....not MA.

I will buy the dips in gold.

================

Am I reading it right, the Blog "The sector paradigm shift in equities" is saying that Amazon will go to $4750.

[atlantic57] 22/5/2020 10:56

11 percent I think we have to link everything up together.

If you believe the Dow is going to retest it’s lows of March 2020 in the near term ie 30 June then I suspect there is a strong likelihood that Gold will have a sharp pull back.

Otherwise I agree with your summary on gold.
I like golden prospect Gpm and Yamana gold Kirkland gold for starters.

I think the key for the markets is whether the virus comes back.
Martin emphasises the economic destruction but markets tend to look forwards .

He is saying that mass unemployment will suck out demand,,

[atlantic57] 21/5/2020 21:46

11 your reflections will be of interest.

For me Gold appears to have run out of energy for now .It appears to be range bound and he was warning of a peak mid year i believe.

George
Yes I can see that he has reproduced the 1929 chart clearly inferring that back then
There was a 22 week rally.However does he still believe a 30 June pull back is likely.
I am not sure
If you use put and calls who do you use thanks

[11_percent] 21/5/2020 18:40

Ok, we are looking at different charts.

IG is 24 hour, or near enough, does not distinguish between futures and trading hours.

[georgethefourth] 21/5/2020 17:19

11% - I guess IG would include overnight and out of hours trading, so it would be a bit different to the charts I look at, which are just during trading hours. I've got the Dow as having made a new high today (I think, it's hard to be sure looking at chart. It's either a high by several points, or else it's a similar amount off Monday afternoons high)

[11_percent] 21/5/2020 16:03

3 Private Blogs......will look at them this evening, when I get back.

[11_percent] 21/5/2020 15:51

a57,

I have lost the plot as well.


Am I right in saying......the DOW is still below this weeks high.....will see how it ends.


g4, We seem to have had different numbers for the various indices in the past. I Use IG Index trading platform, and take my highs and lows from there.

[atlantic57] 21/5/2020 15:44

well gold is falling

i think i will stick to cash for now as it is unclear to me what is happening

[georgethefourth] 21/5/2020 15:02

I got the opposite impression tbh, that he thought it was likely it would at least retest support. His first paragraph he talked about "rallies of 40% don't mean reversals in trend" and then equated it to the 1929 crash. To me that implies the trend is down and this is just a counter trend rally. I thought it was pretty bearish really. Saying it "must base" and that a retest of the low "could" hold. Having said all that I don't really have too much faith and any drops in the markets just get bought right back up, so it is looking strong...

[atlantic57] 21/5/2020 14:01

The latest blog seems to suggest he is doubting there will be a retest in the june quarter.

At least that is my take

[georgethefourth] 21/5/2020 11:59

Yes I actually did OK out of that time on oilers. Went long Rre, Jkx and jog at the lows. Closed the first for a good profit and dumped the other two at flat as part of my Armstrong-induced sell-off of everything

[atlantic57] 21/5/2020 11:29

Absolutely George but you must listen to your inner voice.

People were screaming will fall to 5 dollars a barrell when the saudis announced their
price war.

This would kill off us oil shale production and cause mass unemployment ,
Trump would sinply tell the saudis that they could defend themselves.


So if we get a second chance back your own judgement.