Mallett Share Discussion Threads

[georgethefourth] 15/5/2020 08:11

Atlantic - "unless it falls substantially from here it won't be" - not sure what you're meaning by this? The Dow closed yesterday at 23625. Which means that it could close up today by 19 points and we're still on for the drop next week.

Agree about Socrates, that's looking bullish this morning. Although if it closes anything less than 19 points up today I'd bet that changes completely by the next update

[atlantic57] 15/5/2020 08:08

i cant cut and paste from the private blog you can.

look at the dow for 8 may there he says next week could test support.

[11_percent] 15/5/2020 08:03

Next was a panic week .

However now we seem to be saying unless the markets fall substantially from here it wont be ( That was my reading)

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Sorry, where are you seeing its a panic week next week.

[11_percent] 15/5/2020 07:59

atlantic, agreed.

We have the Blog saying.

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The DOW into the weeks closing.

As we head into the close of the week watch 23,645. A close below that today will leave the market in a venerable position for next week.

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What I find a bit annoying about these predictions is that they are made before the event. He could wait till the market closes and then say "we closed below X, so the DOW will go down next week".

Never mind, its a clear target.

[atlantic57] 15/5/2020 07:56

Once again on the morning of 15 may Socrates has demonstrated its ability to alter its stance quickly.

Next was a panic week .

However now we seem to be saying unless the markets fall substantially from here it wont be ( That was my reading)

[atlantic57] 14/5/2020 08:10

11 Percent I find it difficult to fine tune the commentary .It appeared that this week
Indexes were going up.

Now he appears to be saying that next week will be panic cycle.
Gold has not taken out the April high .

So my interpretation for myself is.

Cash is king right now .

As I say I have a useless record at shorting so I won’t go there.i will probably go into cash.

The fed boss comments about the state of the economy are telling it like it is

[11_percent] 14/5/2020 07:56

08/05/20 – US Share Market for the close of May 8th
We still see that the market is treading water.
We may see a small bounce into next week, but the following week is where there will be a risk that we see a retest of support.

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Am looking at DOW as representative of US market.

DOW

Monday 11/05/20 - Open: 24,287 Close: 24,223
Wed 13/05/20 - Open: 23,603 Close: 23,327
Thurs 14/05/20 - Open: 23,602 At 08.00: 23,124

OK, did mean the bounce was INTO this week, not IN this week.
So far, 4 down days...Mon to Thurs (at 08:00).

[11_percent] 13/5/2020 22:34

S&P500......lets see if 2650 holds.

[atlantic57] 13/5/2020 10:33

11 percent yes thank you ,it remains confusing.


i have a mediocre record in shorting so i clearly do not understand .

On the other hand recognising intrinsic value in a company i know well has worked for me particularly in market meltdowns.

On the balance of probability Shell is going lower for me

Finally over the years a number of commentators have predicted a time when people loose faith in Government.

i believe the way in which certain governments ie the uk have handled the crisis will bring that stage to unfold.Quite possibly the 4h quarter of 2020

[11_percent] 13/5/2020 10:12

I find the GMW a bit confusing.

I tend to look at the Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly "History, Indicators, Trends" coloured mtricies.

In the case of RDS, almost everything is RED, so I would use that as an indicator that Shell is going lower.

However, having said that, I gave up on using them to trade.

I do use the Gold "Soc Summary Analysis" reports as a guide, particularly, the overhead resistance and support. I take head if says "reversals" have been elected.


I have seen the graphs for BUY and SELL in blog, in the past. It shows a graph, and mark on the graph for BUY and SELL.

Someone has access to these graphs, but I don't know where they come from....or what level they are.

These, I assume, are the vehicle that would need to be used to trade.

[atlantic57] 13/5/2020 08:20

11 percent i have purchased the reports on rdsb.

My reading of those reports are that Socratese is very bearish on the company.

although you need to be able to understand gmw

Is that your understanding he uses phrases like waterfall in motion yearly trend

monthly trend sharp drop likely

quarterly trend turning to the upside

[11_percent] 12/5/2020 13:12

Yes, he (Soc) has been calling a drop in the DOW for a while....and it has not happened.


Personally, IMO, and looking at what other analysts are saying, a drop is nailed on.

[georgethefourth] 12/5/2020 12:23

I'm not exactly sure how to interpret the length of the drop. He also mentioned it dropping into the end of June didn't he?

[atlantic57] 12/5/2020 12:09

Thank you 11 percent i am mainly in cash now

However when the market tanked in march that was time to have loaded up had i have done so i would have recovered many of the lossess i have now incurred,

like George i find the gmw term very confusing

[11_percent] 12/5/2020 11:41

The way I read the blog is that

# bounce this week (current week we are in)

# following week (next week) is the risk we retest support, ie, fall.

Then follows some politics, Trump, Gates, economy lockdown, Giv incompetence....

Which supports his last paragraph...….the slingshot is still on.

So....I am tracking this week and next to see what happens.

[atlantic57] 12/5/2020 10:27

Noted but i cant see why the following week is significant i know he adds narrative..

[11_percent] 12/5/2020 10:08

08/05/20 – US Share Market for the close of May 8th
We still see that the market is treading water.
We may see a small bounce into next week, but the following week is where there will be a risk that we see a retest of support.

===============
Am looking at DOW as representative of US market.

DOW

Monday 11/05/20 - Open: 24,287 Close: 24,223

[atlantic57] 12/5/2020 09:22

Also the big hedge funds tend to run the markets up and then run them down.
As computers appear to be making the decisions when liquidations occur everything gets liquidated.

I must confess I don’t understand why Martin feels next week is key.

I would have thought the last week in June is a dangerous time as Hedge funds seek to
Bank profits.

Second quarter reporting season should be dangerous when people see how bad the economic damage has been.

However markets look forwards it will depend on the outlook at that time.

[georgethefourth] 12/5/2020 09:02

11 percent - I was thinking along similar lines but looking at the charts has put me off holding anything. You've got negative divergences on a whole host of miners and covid stocks, just the same as regular stocks. Looking like next week will be about right and, if my interpretation of the charts in right, we could get another round of margin calls and forced liquidation of everything, including miners

[11_percent] 12/5/2020 08:53

Thanks for posting guys.

I am still holding gold and oil shares.....and some "Covis-19" shares...….as I hope they will not go down with a market slump.
Have put off buying shares which would trade in line with the market.

[georgethefourth] 11/5/2020 11:09

Yes agreed and I'm the same. But that analysis comes from the private blogs right? I feel same about the blogs about the Dow - I'm currently selling down my positions in anticipation of a drop

[atlantic57] 11/5/2020 11:01

Valid questions

I can’t interpret the gmw !

The benefits for me are say the gold market.
Gurus and talking heads have been predicting for 7 years that gold was about to explode higher to 5000 plus an ounce they were wrong.

Socratese is saying that it won’t explode to the upside until the tipping point when confidence in Government starts to fail and we are not quite there.

Also the support for Gold prices has been helpful when the the price falls.

[georgethefourth] 11/5/2020 09:21

Yes I know if you want to trade you have to get the pro package. And I infer that from this package you get access to buy and sell signals, support/resistance ect. My point though, is what does the GMW actually do? What is its purpose?

One example (this may probably be my error in interpreting, so both of your input would be very welcome): on the yearly for the Dow ect it's talking about a temp high. Fine so far. But on the quarterly it's talking about a rally. How does this work? It's going to rally on the quarterly but then it can't otherwise it would invalidate the yearly... Also, both of these a liable to switch around by tomorrow. If the yearly and quarterly change completely from day to day, then what purpose do they serve? I can understand not being able to trade off the longer term timeframes - after all, telling us the yearly low is in doesn't do a whole lot of good as the dow could still crash 20% and still not invalidate this - but the GMW doesn't even do this well as its predictions on the longer term timeframe change every day too. I just don't see what the point is for this data on any timeframe. What benefit do you guys get from it? I've stopped even looking at it because it seems so pointless...

[11_percent] 11/5/2020 09:04

I think you need the highest level if you want to trade daily.

I have Plus membership and not Pro.

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This is what I have from the US markets from the latest blog.


08/05/20 – US Share Market for the close of May 8th May

We still see that the market is treading water.
We may see a small bounce into next week, but the following week is where there will be a risk that we see a retest of support.

Then follows some politics, Trump, election, tax increases, etc…..which justifies the final/below paragraph.

Therefore, the sling-shot remains in full play. The issue will NOT be profits and visions grandeur, but of panic in capital fleeing from total Government mismanagement.
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Soc has been consistently calling a re-test of support, or even lower on the DOW (and hence US indices). That's one move I do not want to miss.

[atlantic57] 10/5/2020 21:40

George I think from my perspective longer term trends he is pretty accurate .
This information is useful and helpful.