Mallett Share Discussion Threads

[11_percent] 18/5/2020 09:58

Gold

Although I look at what Soc is saying about gold, I tend to view it short term noise.
The World and his dog all agree that PMs are going up, given the printing to infinity of Fiat.
IMO, the PMs trend is up......and this is what I am following.


DOW
Just going sideways in a band.
Will wait for a break, either way, to trade.

OIL
Has always been cyclical...long term.
Its low at the moment and I will follow the trend up.

[atlantic57] 18/5/2020 09:27

ok Folks Gold has started the day well !

However the Dow futures are not suggesting weakness any time soon

Oil also looking strong
So the good times are back !!!

[georgethefourth] 17/5/2020 22:22

Interesting updates. Seems to be suggesting the Dow will drop starting this week and make a low within the next 6 weeks.

Gold seems to be a bit more vague. My reading of it is that it could follow the markets down, or it could be inversely correlated and rise. Although, if it does rise it'll just be until June, at which point it will pull back. Interestingly, this would be around the same time the Dow would bottom, meaning that there would be an almost perfect correlation. This would seem strange to me. If he's predicting the Dow, and gold to take off together next year, then you'd have thought they'd be growing in correlation towards that time, rather than being diametrically opposed. Also, if the markets do drop to their lows, for the Dow that means a big 20% plus drop. Surely this level of drop would bring about another round of margin calls and forced liquidation...

Re Bitcoin. I'm not sure if it was Armstrong who talked about the risk of the government just taking it over, or whether I have got that from someone else. But that's got to be a possibility. if cryptos are the way of the future, surely the powers that be would want control over them

[atlantic57] 17/5/2020 20:39

So gold has to clear 1755...

[11_percent] 17/5/2020 20:19

Plasybryn
17 May '20 - 10:38 - 76 of 82
0 0 1
Gold: A panic cycle move higher? Are we talking $1800/$2000 or more? I believe circa $2300 equates to the previous high allowing for inflation, so still some way to go to even get into new territory.

==========

Yes, looks like it......if gold can get through resistance up to 1805.

A May close over 1755 points to a June higher....ie higher.

[11_percent] 17/5/2020 20:15

Sat 17th May 20 – Gold and its Role

Gold is facing a Panic Cycle this week which will begin in a period of high volitility into June.
We have closed at the highest weekly settlement so far for this rally.
Technical resistance at 1768 and system resistance at 1799 – 1805 level.
Gold is starting to show that there is a great concern for the survival of the money system.

I have previously warned that a summer high is possible going into May, with a pull back into June/July.

The next high volatility period will be Jan/Feb 2021.

A May close above this 1755 level will point to a June High at a minimum. We still show the 2Q as the high or at least or at least the highest or the highest quarterly close.

Keep in mind we are doing battle with a Socialist Coalition. They will not allow people to turn to gold to defeat their plans. There remains the risk of pushing gold underground and the black market.

====================

Volatility next week.

[11_percent] 17/5/2020 14:36

a57,

Sorry, have not been involved in Bitcoin, and know very little about Cryptos.

I know it is volatile, and went on a run a few years ago.

Central Banks will not want competition to their Fiat.

Yes, the younger guys love it.

[atlantic57] 17/5/2020 12:24

I agree with Martin Armstrong that Governments will never allow CRYPTO CURRENCIES to become established in the long run.

However in the short run i think selected cryptos will do much better than gold.

Bitcoin appears to have gone up by 200% since march whereas gold as gone up by around 20%

Younger people are much more attracted to crypto than gold...

[11_percent] 17/5/2020 10:58

Need to go and do some stuff....back later with the Gold blog.

[11_percent] 17/5/2020 10:56

Ok Socratese has spoken , I find it somewhat Bizarre that the Dow only just closed above 23645 but this somehow changes the metrics significantly.

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It seems to be case that there are specific numbers, that need to elected by the market.

Jesse Livermore called them "pivot points"...….MA calls them rehearsals.

There was a number, forget he actual value, that needed to be elected for gold to rise. It kept going under it on a Monthly basis.

[11_percent] 17/5/2020 10:41

Sat 16/05/20 – DOW looking ahead
# The DOW closed above 23,645 so it had reduced the prospects of a major crash.
# Nevertheless, we are not yet in a position where the slingshot will materialize just yet.
# What is necessary, will be that the majority beg in to shift and see that this so-called CV-19 “stimulation” is ABSOLUTLY nothing to do with such lofty pronouncements.
# Pelosi has pushed through plan……which she knows will not pass…..then blame Trump……..There are 2 MAJOR DISTURBING TRENDS.

# (1) She is trying to bail-out the failed State pension funds……cover up collapse in Socialism.

# (2) So this is a covet means to hide the expansion of the debt which has ZERO stimulus for ECONOMY. This will undermine CONFIDENCE in the bond market and send cash into equities. (Slingshot.

# We still see the 2nd Quarter as the LOW (intraday or close).
# Volatility will rise next week - and a break below 23,000 will signal that a decline remains possible in June.
=================

So, saying the LOW will be in Q2...……...and it is possible if we go under 23,000 (support) …….which I guess is fairly likely.

The slingshot is not yet...….until people wake up.

I guess....if we get past June, without a LOW/CRASH......its not going to happen.

Hedge your bets...….what do you think guys.

[plasybryn] 17/5/2020 10:38

Gold: A panic cycle move higher? Are we talking $1800/$2000 or more? I believe circa $2300 equates to the previous high allowing for inflation, so still some way to go to even get into new territory.

[atlantic57] 17/5/2020 08:52

ok guys two big posts today from Socratese but again your comments would be welome.

Gold

He seems to be saying next week is a panic cycle which is explained in the glossary as an abrupt move.Yet he also appears to be saying that gold will hit a high in june and then presumable fall way.

The Dow

He has a number of columns yet a close at 14583 appears to be predicted as a possible key low.So presumably between now and then there will be many trading opportunities.

[georgethefourth] 16/5/2020 17:29

Yes it's a bit vague. In the first paragraph he says, due to yesterday's close being higher than 23645, that the odds of a crash are lower. But then in the last paragraph he says he still sees a low in the second quarter. To date the low was in March, hence the first quarter, so he still sees a drop in the next month.

I guess he must mean that now he still sees a drop, whereas if the Dow had closed below that magic number the drop would have been nailed on

[atlantic57] 16/5/2020 17:23

Ok Socratese has spoken , I find it somewhat Bizarre that the Dow only just closed above
23645 but this somehow changes the metrics significantly.

We now seem to be saying there won’t be a crash but there will volatility going into 30 June.

He expects the low to be in the June quarter.

Volatility means to me lots of ups and downs.

Over to you guys.

[11_percent] 15/5/2020 22:06

The DOW into the weeks closing.

As we head into the close of the week watch 23,645. A close below that today will leave the market in a venerable position for next week.

==================

23,654 close.

[11_percent] 15/5/2020 16:13

You got your 23625...…..now it does not want go under 23,350

I am going to let the short ride.

[georgethefourth] 15/5/2020 14:51

Hopefully we'll fill the gap up to 23625 and then drop for the rest of the session. Fingers crossed as I just added to my short...

[11_percent] 15/5/2020 13:04

23,334...….go baby...go...

[11_percent] 15/5/2020 12:08

23,654


DOW tanked to 23,419......

[11_percent] 15/5/2020 09:10

Mmmm…….ok a57.


Ok......23,654......the one to watch.

[atlantic57] 15/5/2020 08:46

george /11 thanks

The graph next to 23645 makes no sense as it is almost 1000 points higher

[11_percent] 15/5/2020 08:20

Hi guys, I assume you have seen the Private Blog this morning. I assume this is the latest position.

=================

The DOW into the weeks closing.

As we head into the close of the week watch 23,645. A close below that today will leave the market in a venerable position for next week.

[11_percent] 15/5/2020 08:13

a57, ok cheers.