Naked Wines Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 03/12/2021 20:39

Present chart set up looks a tad familiar methinks to what has gone before

425p support could be retested imo

dyor

[buywell3] 03/12/2021 20:35

200p got hit


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com











buywell3 13 Nov '20 - 02:12 - 241 of 257 Edit

When this goes down it does so in quite spectacular fashion

Circa 5 events on here where the share price dropped by 50% in about a year

buywell thinks another event is nigh




free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


buywells' opine is that a 200p retest is likely in coming market weakness after vaccine froth

[simon gordon] 21/11/2021 14:00

WINE mentioned at 43 minutes:

IC podcast - 10/11/21

Iain McCombie, manager of Baillie Gifford UK Growth Trust tells Mary McDougall how he tries to source the best growth opportunities among UK stocks and divulges what he has been buying and selling most recently. He shares his thought process behind owning St James’ Place, Hargreaves Lansdown, Boohoo.com and Rightmove among other holdings and explains why the trust recently sought approval to invest in unquoted companies.

Iain has co-managed Baillie Gifford UK Growth Trust since June 2018 and is lead manager of Baillie Gifford’s UK core strategy. He is also a manager on a number of global funds and became a partner at Baillie Gifford in 2005.

[davemarn] 18/11/2021 13:30

Back to 400p region?

Hard drop in WINE

Now then, right this way :)

[qs99] 18/11/2021 13:14

£1m of EBIT and look at its market cap.....not for me....GLA

[74tom] 18/11/2021 09:36

I also note that with the low of 514 we technically completed a head and shoulders formation that started on 18/11/2020 - very neat timing indeed...

[74tom] 18/11/2021 09:30

There is a new US listed wine entity called Vintage Wine Estates - market cap $657m as of last night, they reported third quarter sales on 15/11 of $56m and $2.8m net income... right now Naked are at $525m cap with HY sales of $214m & $100m in the US alone. Naked are also far more profitable on a standstill basis. If this wasn't listed in the US I'd say 400p would probably happen, given the predominance of UK based shorters. However, there is strong technical support at around £4.80 (acted as resistance 5x in the period 2016-2020), I'll be very surprised if the price goes below that level.

[simon gordon] 18/11/2021 09:19

In hindsight, the Peloton warning on the 4th of November was a red flag that the Covid home shopping boom was over. On the chart the 400p area looks like support.

[74tom] 18/11/2021 09:16

I think that today will be the death knell for the WINE AIM listing. I suspected this would happen when I noticed that 4 hedge funds had opened shorts in the last few weeks;

BennBridge Ltd 0.52% 0.0% 9 Nov 2021
Ennismore Fund Management Limited 1.02% 0.09% 11 Nov 2021
JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd 0.91% 0.18% 19 Oct 2021
Marshall Wace LLP 0.50% 0.02% 5 Nov 2021

They are undoubtedly what are driving the aggressive decline this morning, as the price had already fallen 22% from it's year highs, pricing in some of the already flagged growth slowdown.

As of right now, a market cap of £400m less cash of £57m gives an EV of £343m. Their standstill EBITDA was reported as being £37.2m, meaning they are trading at less than 10 x EV - Sales. Super cheap by US standards.

Does today's report change the long term story? Not a bit. It's a great buying opportunity which I have taken advantage of.

Ps. It was CNBC and not Seeking Alpha, and the guy that did the PR (Light Street Capital) bought more shares a couple of weeks ago. I suspect he'll be doing the same when the US wakes up today...

[bigbigdave] 18/11/2021 07:48

Another lockdown winner coming to the end of its boom period.
Looks lime the seeking alpha report was an excuse for someone to sell up.

[simon gordon] 18/11/2021 07:40

Top line downgrade, looks probable share will fall, momentum nullified:

18/11/21:

Outlook

FY'22 guidance updated as follows:

● Total sales updated to £340 million to £355 million (£355 million to £375 million previously), which equates to 2% to 7% sales growth at constant currency, reflecting lower than anticipated Investment in New Customers

● Investment in New Customers expected to be £35 million to £45 million (£40 million to £50 million previously), as we preserve cohort quality

● Repeat Customer Contribution profit outlook unchanged at £85 million to £90 million, with the Repeat Customer Contribution margin expected to be 100bps - 200bps below H1'22, driven by the supply chain and logistics environment and higher inventory storage costs

● General and administrative costs outlook unchanged at £46 million to £49 million

● Inventory balance of £127 million as of 27 September 2021 (£85 million as at 28 September 2020), well positioned for what we anticipate will be our largest holiday season. Mindful of the challenges in restoring availability over the last 12 months and continued supply chain disruption we intend to run the business with higher inventory balances over the medium-term to preserve availability for customers and ensure we do not constrain our growth potential

[74tom] 04/11/2021 09:17

A real statement of intent from Light Street Capital, moving through the 10% barrier, they must have huge confidence in management's strategic execution...

[74tom] 01/11/2021 18:53

Thanks a lot for sharing all of those links! Not a fan of the Aussie analysis, doing a super high level review and then coming out with a specific price target seems futile to me… the RGA investment piece is fantastic though & shows the level of analysis that is needed to create the conviction required to hold for 5+ years. Will listen to the last podcast tomorrow, however my positive view has definitely been strengthened.

Re. US listing, some huge buys over there tonight - volume already past the UK at 788k shares, a 40k buy at $9.65 suggests the institutions have woken up to the fact the can buy over there. Currently trading at $9.85, so should open up tomorrow if that’s maintained.

One last thing to note; from the commencement of trading on the OTCQX market on 19th July until last Wednesday, only 603,891 shares had changed hands. Since the CNBC piece there have been just shy of 4m…

Thursday - 2,165,175
Friday - 1,022,096
Today - 788,000

The purpose of the interview was clearly to raise awareness of the company / listing, as up to that point the daily average volume was a measly 8500 shares… it appears mission accomplished in that regard.

[simon gordon] 01/11/2021 15:57

Couple of investors who are keen on WINE:

Capital Employed podcast - 28/9/21

High ROCE and Widening Moats

An interview with Partnership Investing, and two stock ideas.

[simon gordon] 01/11/2021 14:52

Tom,

Ptolemy on the SHA thread shared this analysis on WINE:

RGA Investment Advisors - 3/2/21

[74tom] 01/11/2021 13:53

Likewise, thanks for sharing that podcast Simon! It provides some really good additional insight into Naked Wines - they seem like an exceptional group of people. Should get interesting here soon, you can't help but think that several other US based II's will have been alerted to WINE via last weeks events and as James disclosed in the podcast the top 10-15 shareholders hold around 70% of shares, so supply is already getting tight, at some point it will run out...

[simon gordon] 01/11/2021 13:45

Guru Focus - 19/11/20:

Norbert Lou: The Best Fund Manager You've Never Heard Of

[simon gordon] 01/11/2021 13:43

Interesting analysis of WINE by an Aussie, he mentions his esteem for Norbert Lou at Punch Card Capital who currently holds 9%, seemingly Norbert doesn't make many investments and has an outstanding track record.

Andrew Brown - 16/8/21:

[simon gordon] 01/11/2021 12:15

Hi Tom,

Thanks for sharing that snapshot, very interesting and helpful!

This podcast came out this morning:

In the Company of Mavericks - 1/11/21

A Conversation with James Crawford of Naked Wines

James Crawford UK MD of Naked Wines talks about his decision to join the unprofitable business in 2014 after the relative security of Diageo. He explains why his love of wine and his love of Naked's unique business model attracted him to take the plunge. He talks about the challenges of navigating the acquisition by Majestic and then the later sale of that business which allowed Naked to focus its resources on the biggest prize, growth in North America. Gareth Evans is the Founder and Managing Director of Progressive Equity Research. Jeremy McKeown Inthecompanyofmavericks

[74tom] 01/11/2021 11:46

I bought an initial stake this morning at £6.80 having spent most of yesterday researching this share. It's very hard not to be impressed at what they are trying to achieve. They undoubtedly have a far better moat than the likes of Virgin Wines and their shareholder base is possibly the most impressive I've ever seen for an AIM company. What's more, most of the US investors have been aggressively buying shares in the past few months, suggesting that it isn't just Light Street that see significant long term potential here.

When you've got Baillie Gifford, Conifer Capital, Morgan Stanley etc buying heavily around the current levels, it may be worth paying more attention to what at first appeared a rampy CNBC interview.

Standstill EBITDA was £39m in 2020 and they are aiming to grow the top line at 20% per annum, the addition of a strong balance sheet with £85m cash and no debt makes the current market cap of £500m seem very fair as far as I'm concerned.

If they can double revenue over the next 5 years & achieve their targeted 10% EBIT margin then a four bagger should be very achievable, especially with what looks like an imminent NASDAQ listing.

E.g.

2026 revenue @ 20% per annum growth; £769m
2026 EBITDA @ 10%; £77m

4 bags from current level = £2.5b market cap

£2.5b / £77m = 32x EV - EBITDA.

Fevertree currently trades at 43 x EV - EBITDA, however at one stage it was significantly higher, so why can't WINE achieve something similar?

Happy to buy more on any dips from this level, I'm sure the American's will be as well...

[liam1om] 01/11/2021 09:30

Now lost pretty much all its gain from the Kacher ramp.

[fionascott1234] 30/10/2021 17:35

It stinks, nothing illegal in it but embarrassing nevertheless.

[wine1000] 30/10/2021 11:00

WOULDA, COULDA, SHOULDA – IS NAKED WINES A BUY EVEN AFTER ITS 13% JUMP?

hxxps://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/woulda-coulda-shoulda-is-naked-wines-a-buy-even-after-its-13-jump/aff/9/