Macro 4 Share Discussion Threads

[penpont] 02/3/2003 16:45

Results reviewed in this weeks IC. Says HB Arbuthnot (ex OM) has reduced this years profit forecast from £2.9m to £2.5m - would still be a reasonable performance and would give eps of around 8p rather than 9.3p.

Should still enable divi to be paid.

[quickflutter] 23/2/2003 00:13

lol. whats gone wrong with this company?

[adriand] 13/2/2003 20:20

Chuckie,

NAV is as you state.

[chuckie egg] 13/2/2003 19:20

Latest balance sheet as reported today.

Equity shareholder funds £17.504M, intangible asset £16.716 giving NAV (ex intangible) £0.788M.

[adriand] 13/2/2003 18:03

I agree about the deferred revenue being prudent. I will disagree about the positive NAV for MAO. (correctyion - see later post)

Share price has held up well today so good for MAO and its investors.

[chuckie egg] 13/2/2003 15:14

Adriand,

Turnover, for the last 2 yrs, shows a bias towards the 2nd half. This will be reflected in the cashflow.

Net debt at 31/12/01 7.6M
Net debt at 31/12/02 6.8M.

So on a yr on yr basis the debt has decreased.

All my analysis exclude intangibles.

MAO has a positive NAV.

SGE,MSY, DCS( one of Freddy's favourites) has neg NAV.


Note that deferred revenue is a reflection of the prudence of accounting. Companies like MAS,IOT have defer rev. to turnover ratio as low as 10%. This means that they are booking a large proportion of profits today, instead of smoothing out the profits. This is especially important with license fees.

[adriand] 13/2/2003 13:23

tomrob,

Yes, biut still higher than previous interims.

chuckie,

Why is cashflow weighted to the second-half when t/o isn't? (I need to do more analysis if time but woulds appear to be the increase in deferred income - customers paying in advance).
Interesting about most software cos' NAV. What is the the position for NAV excluding intangibles.

Plus point for MAO is that they provide a full set of notes and analysis.

Good luck

[tomrob] 13/2/2003 09:17

adriand,

Won't your deteriorating net cash outflow have been enhanced by the £1.1m non-recurring exceptionals (presumably mostly redundancy payments)?

tom

[chuckie egg] 13/2/2003 08:23

Cashflow is weighted to 2nd half, see last years accounts. Turnover (annualised) to deferred revenue ratio 43%, the strongest deferred ratio of virtually all UK software company. Recurring revenue now make up 60% of turnover. NAV positive compared to neg NAV of many leading UK software companies.

[chuckie egg] 13/2/2003 08:23

Cashflow is weighted to 2nd half, see last years accounts. Turnover (annualised) to deferred revenue ratio 43%, the strongest deferred ratio of virtually all UK software company. Recurring revenue now make up 60% of turnover. NAV positive compared to neg NAV of many leading UK software companies.

[adriand] 13/2/2003 08:16

Have a look at the net cash outflow of £2.6m (worse than previous periods).
Have a look at a balance sheet that shows shareholders funds at less than the intangibles (Goodwill). (If the intangibles were written off the shareholders funds would be negative) (Correction - NAV, excluding intangibles is positive - £0.7m)

Also deferred income reduced (ie less income secured for future periods)

Take care.

[ydderf] 13/2/2003 08:11

deduct intangibles, future revenue in the debtors and debt and you have NOTHING!

[penpont] 13/2/2003 07:58

Thought results pretty acceptable under circumstances and surprised to see price open lower.

Again they've referred to 'improving shareholder value' - to me in a way that almost suggests they don't rule out a bid, tho would be interested in any other any other views:

'The Board remains receptive to opportunities that it believes would deliver
shareholder value, but in the current low valuation environment the Board's
primary focus is on improved sales conversion, rigorous cost control, and
driving increased profitability and growth across both divisions.'

[chuckie egg] 13/2/2003 07:43

Results show improvement from last year. Profit excluding exceptional & amortisation £0.085M compared to last year losses excluding exceptionals & amortisation (£1.48)M. If MAO only matches last year's (profits traditional weighted toward 2nd half) 2nd half performance than MAO will make £2.7M giving forward p/e 5.

The dividend is also maintained at 2p.

[chuckie egg] 12/2/2003 11:53

Gavis,

Don't worry about tomorrow results, clearly the markets is assuming the worse. If the co. produce results showing a small profit and halved div, we could see a bounce. Anything better then a large re-rating should take place. Last yr div was 6p giving a div yield 14%. Consensus forecast gives a forward p/e 4.7. I added a couple days ago.

Remember it was only 2 years ago MAO made £11M, more than todays market cap.

[gavis] 12/2/2003 11:39

Last set of results back in September stated:

Outlook

As we enter the new financial year, the Group's recurring revenues remain solid,
the pipeline of prospective qualified opportunities is strong and the
attractiveness of our customer offering has never been more compelling.

Against this backdrop, I am satisfied that Macro 4 is well placed to build on
its stronger performance in the second half of this year and take advantage of
any upturn in the market that might develop.


Well obviously there has probably been little or no upturn, but recurring revenues are good and the yield is enormous (over 13% at the current price). I've a few of these and have been thinking about picking up a few more, but I'll see what the results bring first. I would have thought and hoped that if the results we going to be too bad then they would perhaps have issued a profit warning.

Nothing has come from the company re results tomorrow but perhaps the IC & FT know more than us.

[quantumx] 12/2/2003 11:20

Similarly with the FT. Are you guys confident of good results. The IT market is still dreadful.

[penpont] 11/2/2003 19:13

It was in the IC this week that results were on thurs.

[cocker] 11/2/2003 18:54

I see on ceefax that mao report on thursday & yet there seems to be no notice of results on here. Does anybody know any different ?

[johnv] 20/1/2003 14:08

I get the impression they fell recently due to the fact that they werent one of tech* tips for the year. hopefully now slowly recovering. I assume he stills likes them but there are better pickings elsewhere.

[penpont] 20/1/2003 08:57

Seems to be creeping up towards results in mid Feb. There have been some encouraging results or trading statements from a range of small software cos over the past few months - Systems Union, Staffware, Sherwood, Alphameric etc., leading me to think that selectively the sector may have some hope to offer investors -results will be interesting.

[cocker] 07/1/2003 16:44

DID'NT MAKE TECHINVEST NEW YEAR TIPS. I'VE JUST LOST MY LAST DOLLAR.

[quickflutter] 06/1/2003 14:08

looking ready for the U-bend today. toilet duck ready

[cocker] 03/1/2003 18:33

will see monday morning !