Macro 4 Share Discussion Threads

[iampoor] 02/1/2003 19:14

is that good or bad ?

[cocker] 02/1/2003 16:07

i'd bet my bottom dollar that this one makes techinvest new year top ten tips for 2003.

[quickflutter] 27/12/2002 16:18

someone just lumped out 25k at 43p

eugh

[gorwel] 27/12/2002 11:57

DON'T mention QSP!!

[mahanfool] 09/12/2002 20:10

techinvest arent dong too well lately-are they

[gzr] 08/12/2002 11:40

Techinvest are very keen on MAO at the moment, it may make it into their tips for 2003.

[ok,yah] 06/12/2002 17:37

Its on my watch list but see no immediate catalyst for a price rise. Lots of techs could be argued are undervalued including MAO & it may drift for a while. having said that yield is excellent if it can be maintained

[penpont] 06/12/2002 13:06

Old Mutual have updated their forecast on HS, as follows - figs are for 03 and 04:

Old Mutual Securities 28-11-02 HOLD 2.90m 9.30p: 3.40m 10.70p

(later edit - noted that these are actually unchanged numbers from the sep forecast)

No forecast divi is given but on these figures the 6p should be able to be maintained, giving a 10% yield at todays offer price.

I am tempted to top up the small amount I hold, as the recent price fall has been on very low volumes and wiht no apparent bad news.

Any other views?

[goodgrief] 14/11/2002 13:49

Down 11%.

Following Techinvest's write up, I was almost tempted to buy some for the yield and recovery prospects. Glad to be sitting on the sidelines for the moment.

[penpont] 08/11/2002 08:37

From citywires newspaper summary this morning:

* Macro 4 - talk of strong trading (D Express)

I know these snippets are often pretty meaningless but hopefully theres some fire behind the smoke here.

Anyone with a view on the continued L and G dumping? They've got rid of 250k over the past week or so, making MAO's progress all the more impressive.

[gzr] 08/11/2002 08:33

"Macro 4 - talk of strong trading" according to the Express today.

[penpont] 07/11/2002 00:56

Glad to see I'm in good company - lets hope we've got the timing right here.
I just hope I'm right in supposing that things cant get much worse for the markets they're in than they were during the second half of last year, when they put in a very creditable performance.

[gzr] 06/11/2002 08:28

Penpont, I am in this morning. I agree, the risk reward looks good at these levels and the shares have started to turn in the last couple of days.

[chuckie egg] 05/11/2002 21:44

Penpont,

I bought last week. I can see why investors are wary of techs stock but when you see carp like TIG, AIE, LNB, FTC go up by 20-30%. Then the odds favour MAO going up. Especially, the earning momentum is moving in MAO favour. MAO made 2.5M (before except and amortisation) in the 2nd half compared to loss of 1.5m in the first half. TIG made losses in last quarter, LNB profit warned, AIE stated poor outlook with lower profits expected this yr. Compared to them MAO outlook is rosy.

The issue concerning brokers forecast applies to all companies. I find the most reliable forecast are from house broker.

House broker Peel Hunter expects 3.2M for 2003 which equates to EPS 10p on normalised tax. Then for 2004 4.7M. The forecast were dated 8/10/02. To me the 3.2M seems conservative as the co. made 2.5M in the 2nd half.

Also MAO accounting is conservative with a large deferred revenue reserve.

See my thread on deferred revenue:

[penpont] 05/11/2002 20:57

After some thought I decided to start accumulating some of these over the past couple of days.

Despite the bear points raised above (quite reasonably) I just feel the risk reward is too tempting.

There certainly does seem to be a bit of a fashion for recovery among beaten down techs at present and this seems to be one of the better ones.

Anyone else among the buyers today?

[salar] 04/11/2002 14:19

Even if OM had downgraded to 6p or thereabouts (which has yet to be proved), that would still represent a reasonable performance for a software company at MAO's price in current markets, and would still enable the full divi or near enough to be paid.

[gzr] 04/11/2002 08:21

sreed, you don't sound too sure, maybe someone can confirm that.

[sreed] 04/11/2002 08:18

You are looking at forecasts that are months old boys. Om downgraded last week to under 6p if i recall

[gzr] 04/11/2002 08:15

parazaradox, haven't forgotten that, that's why we are nervous of the forecasts and haven't bought yet. On the plus side though is reduced costs and recurring revenues.

[salar] 04/11/2002 00:10

GZR: That forecast is also on the HS premium site, dated early Sep, so its a month before the latest Peel Hunt one. As you say though, the reliability of any of these forecasts is open to question.

[parazaradox] 03/11/2002 16:46

you are forgetting US economy/orders are weak
work has dried up
headcount is being cut and will be provisions

imho, but dyor

[gorwel] 03/11/2002 13:32

salar,

yes, a pity brokers' forecasts may not be so reliable. If they are anywhere near the mark then this has to be grossly undervalued.

Add to that the dividend yield and you can see why Techinvest have been so keen on them for a while now.

I do not hold at present, but would be very tempted if the e.p.s. forecasts were worth believing.

[gzr] 03/11/2002 11:23

Salar, I have just read that Old Mutual have downgraded their forecasts to eps of 9.3p for this year and 10.7p for 2003. Still cheap, but will there be further downgrades? Also, these figure are pre-exceptionals.