Macfarlane Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 25/8/2022 15:39

Ps meant to add - don't hold at the moment, was waiting for their H1 and now prefer to see it break the downtrend it's been in for the past 12 months before first tranche (had thought results today would have been the start!).

[cockerhoop] 25/8/2022 15:39

Yep, Shore Capital issued one this morning with f/c's unchanged and a 150+p target price.

[disc0dave45] 25/8/2022 15:32

Are their any broker notes out?Can I ask what your target price is?, I've pencilled in 150p minimum on a fairly average PE rating. Thanks

[effortless cool] 25/8/2022 12:51

Spot on, disc0dave45. Barring 2021, where H1 was exceptionally strong, H2 earnings from all years since 2016 have been more than 200% of H1 earnings.

[disc0dave45] 25/8/2022 11:50

Very impressive management of their costs. From 2012 to 2019 their gross margins were averaging 31%. Since covid and all other headwinds they have experienced their gross margins are in fact increasing (2020 33.3%, 2021 33.9%). On a group basis H1 gross margin has only reduced marginally from 34.1% to 33.8%, which is still on a par with 2021 FY. Clearly the management are on top of their inflationary headwinds.
They normally have a H2 weighting double that of H1 but consensus forecasts for 11.4p eps is only a H2 to H1 uplift of 60%, so is their some decent potential for a beat?.

[illiswilgig] 25/8/2022 10:59

Happy, even a little impressed with those results - ahead in both revenue and profit of my expectations.

This despite a 700k bung to the pension scheme I'd not seen coming (on selling labels apparently) and the 0.2m acquisition costs expensed, together with the setting up of the new RDC - which should improve efficiencies once its up and running in H2.

All of which means they are doing slightly better on the price increases and cost controls than it might seem - and sets them up well for meeting expectations in H2 despite the difficult environment.

Very impressive management.

Since the stock is on offer this morning I couldn't resist adding just a few,

cheers all,

[scepticalinvestor] 25/8/2022 10:04

Haha touche

[effortless cool] 25/8/2022 09:41

My wife says she doesn't know any clowns.

[scepticalinvestor] 25/8/2022 09:40

Say hi to ur wife 4 me

[effortless cool] 25/8/2022 09:17

What a clown!

ScepticalInvestor16 Aug '22 - 08:49 - 452 of 454 0 1 0
Just bought in at 115 odd. Great quality stock

ScepticalInvestor25 Aug '22 - 09:16 - 454 of 454 0 0 0
Luckily sold out of this bargepole at 114

[scepticalinvestor] 25/8/2022 09:16

Ghastly update, profit warning?

[scepticalinvestor] 25/8/2022 09:16

Luckily sold out of this bargepole at 114

[scepticalinvestor] 25/8/2022 07:20

A bit late for the rns no

[scepticalinvestor] 16/8/2022 08:49

Just bought in at 115 odd. Great quality stock

[cwa1] 12/8/2022 08:22

Hope there's room for a small one to join you here? :-)

Taken a few at the tiniest smidgeon over 118 in the hope that upcoming results will be solid if nothing else and, at some point, MACF might join in the wider market rally(unlikely, they all chorus!)

Good fortune to all holders

[effortless cool] 05/8/2022 07:51

Very prescient, Eric - interim results on 25 August.

[pireric] 04/8/2022 17:38

I imagine we will receive a notice of results RNS within the next week or so. MACF are quite possibly the only company results I'm genuinely looking forward to at the moment, as I think they'll comfortably beat the broker expectations and shine a further light on the degree of undervaluation the stock is trading at. That outcome is also very derisked by the Q1 trading update which was very strong indeed.

Some of the bigger distributors have seen their share prices rebound nicely off their recent lows on the back of good results in their respective end markets. Bunzl and RS Group are two examples of that

Eric

[svend2] 28/7/2022 22:56

Just keep on going the 'fool' hit the head on the nail this time: By saying ''Finally, Macfarlane shares would boost my passive income stream through dividend payments. The current dividend yield on offer is 2.7%, which is higher than the FTSE 250 average of just under 2%. I am aware that dividends can be cancelled at any time, however.

Overall I do believe that Macfarlane shares could be a great addition to my holdings for long-term growth and consistent returns. I would buy the shares and hold on to them.'' like Duracell batteries keep the lights on and a steady income.

[tole] 26/7/2022 20:32

https://www.fool.co.uk/2022/07/26/this-stock-could-be-i-of-my-best-shares-to-buy-for-long-term-growth-and-returns/This stock could be 1 of my best shares to buy for long-term growth and returns!This Fool is looking for the best shares to buy now and believes this stock could be a good option for dividends and growth.Jabran Khan?Published 26 July, 3:06 pm BSTMACFFinding the best shares to buy is a core part of my investment strategy. I believe Macfarlane Group (LSE:MACF) is a stock that could grow exponentially over the years as well as provide consistent returns. Could now be a good time for me to buy the shares? Let's take a look.Packaging and labellingAs a quick introduction, Macfarlane is a packaging and labelling business based in Scotland. After being established over 70 years ago, it has grown into one of the largest distributors of packaging products in the UK with over 1,000 employees. It also sells its products into Europe and the US.So what's happening with Macfarlane shares currently? Well, as I write, they're trading for 118p. At this time last year, the stock was trading for 112p, which equates to a 5% return over a 12-month period.The biggest risks to Macfarlane's growth currently are macroeconomic headwinds. Soaring inflation has led to rising cost of raw materials. Furthermore, there is currently a global supply chain crisis that has affected many sectors and industries.Macfarlane could be adversely affected by rising materials costs. Packaging products require lots of raw materials to manufacture. These rising costs could squeeze profit margins, which in turn could affect performance and investor returns. If it decides to put prices up, it could lose business to competitors too.The global supply chain crisis has led to many businesses being unable to provide products to their customers. Macfarlane's sales, performance, and returns could be affected if this crisis continues.The bull caseSo to the positives then. Firstly, the packaging and labelling market has grown massively in recent years. This is linked to the e-commerce boom and the explosion of online shopping, which has been exacerbated by the pandemic. Macfarlane should be able to leverage its dominant market position to grow its business and performance.Next, let's take a look at Macfarlane's performance, although I do understand that past performance is not a guarantee of the future. Looking back, Macfarlane has grown revenue and profit in three out of the past four years. The only year when levels dropped was 2020, this was due to the pandemic. 2021 performance was higher than pre-pandemic levels, which is encouraging.So on to the Macfarlane share price. At current levels, the shares look decent value for money on a price-to-earnings ratio of 13. Many of my best shares to buy have pulled back in the past few months which has thrown up some bargain buys.Finally, Macfarlane shares would boost my passive income stream through dividend payments. The current dividend yield on offer is 2.7%, which is higher than the FTSE 250 average of just under 2%. I am aware that dividends can be cancelled at any time, however.Overall I do believe that Macfarlane shares could be a great addition to my holdings for long-term growth and consistent returns. I would buy the shares and hold on to them.

[thorpematt] 17/5/2022 19:48

Yes it looked modestly priced and importantly no dilution (which justifies the divi policy)

[effortless cool] 17/5/2022 13:06

So, now an overseas acquisition to support the strategy to grow into northern Europe ...

[tole] 13/5/2022 18:11

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-macf-bms-vtu-and-cto/Macfarlane Group (LON:MACF) – looking very good value on hopes for 2022The Trading Update issued ahead of this week's AGM was good news.Despite inflationary pressures, the protective packaging specialist has seen its management coping well with perceived current and future hassles.It is already expecting its e-commerce retail sector sales to weaken over the rest of the year.However, to balance that off it has been winning new business wins from within its industrial and hospitality sector customer lists.Trading in the first part of the year has been good, with sales and profits ahead of the same period last year.Against such a difficult scenario it is impressive to see that the group expects to meet market estimates.Analysts Robin Speakman and Akhil Patel at Shore Capital Markets have positively estimated revenues for the current year to end December to rise to £278.5m (£264.5m), while adjusted pre-tax profits will be slightly better at £22.5m (£22.0m), with earnings at 11.3p (10.7p) and paying a 3.4p (3.2p) dividend per share.Chairman Stuart Paterson informed shareholders that:"We have consistently demonstrated our ability to address the challenges in the market and we are confident that the effectiveness of our strategy, the quality of our people and the resilience of our business model will ensure 2022 will be another year of growth for Macfarlane."I continue to rate this group. It is what I really like about the 'Small-Cap' sector – basic and necessary business that does not need to thrive on hype but instead upon selling into a marketplace that requires honest well-priced products.Its shares deserve to be a great deal higher than the current 117p. They were trading up at 146p in late September last year, in my view that is where they should be headed in due course.

[illiswilgig] 11/5/2022 08:08

Excellent (in my view) Q1 AGM trading update yesterday - though managements usual caution this early in the year undersells the figures? In this bear market it wouldn't make any difference how its presented? Key points I took:

first quarter sales and profits from continuing operations ahead of the same period in 2021.

Packaging Distribution sales grew by 16%, with recovery of supplier driven price increases

Manufacturing Operations grew sales by 93%, reflecting the benefit from the acquisition of GWP Holdings Limited in February 2021 and a strong performance from Design and Manufacture

Delving a little deeper into these figures - Distribution - Carters contribution at around £1m doesn't significantly reduce the organic revenue growth - a large proportion of which might be price increases. Which has the benefit of maintaining margins and the bottom line. But likely good organic revenue growth as well - and above my estimates.

GWP contribution to manufacturing figures is significant - £3m pro-rata - which makes the organic growth still around high teens - 18% by my approximate calculations. Again above my estimates.

Too early to increase my estimates at this stage - but these are good figures at a time when few companies, let alone in the packaging sector, are both maintaining margins and growing sales? Management has a record of underpromising and over-delivering - this is no exception - but its really not in the share price at all - very undervalued at the moment,

looking forward to the H1 trading statement. And no doubt they are looking hard at acquisitions as the statement reminds us that they have an unused facility ready and waiting for the right company at the right price,

cheers

[gdjs100] 18/4/2022 20:20

Where do they get these muppets from on the Motley Fool these days... MACF market cap is around £200m so it would need to go up around 30x to make it into the FTSE 100. Likely in 5 years? No.

[tole] 18/4/2022 19:31

https://www.fool.co.uk/2022/04/18/1-growth-stock-i-expect-to-see-on-the-ftse-100-within-5-years/The FTSE 100 is the premier index in the UK and the holy grail that all listed companies would like to reside on. One growth stock I believe could enter the index within a five-year period is Macfarlane Group (LSE:MACF). I'm planning on buying the shares for my holdings.Labelling and packagingMacfarlane Group is a Scottish-based packaging and labelling business with roots stretching back over 70 years. It is one of the largest distributors of protective packaging products in the UK. Supported by 1,000 employees, its customer base spans the UK, Europe, and the US.As I write, Macfarlane shares are trading for 127p. At this time last year, the shares were trading for 110p, which is a 15% increase over a 12-month period.Labelling and packaging may sound a bit boring. But I'm not looking for thrills, I'm looking for a growth stock with a good track record of performance and one eye on the future. I believe Macfarlane ticks all these boxes.Risks involvedMacfarlane Group could see profit margins squeezed due to rising costs of raw materials and the supply chain crisis.These two macroeconomic factors are affecting many businesses across lots of different sectors currently.If Macfarlane cannot fulfil orders due to the supply chain crisis, this could affect performance, growth, and returns. Furthermore, if raw materials are costing more, it may need to charge more to keep profits up. This could result in a loss of customers to competitors.A growth stock I'd buy for my holdingsFor any stock to continue growing organically along with acquisitions, I believe it must be on sound financial footing. I usually review a firm's trading record and balance sheet. I do understand that past performance is not a guarantee of the future, however.Macfarlane has increased revenue and profit year-on-year between 2018 and 2021 (aside from a small drop in 2020 due to the pandemic). Its 2021 annual report was released last month and made for excellent reading, in my opinion.Another reason I believe Macfarlane is a growth stock with lots of potential ahead is due to the market it operates in. Packaging and labelling is thriving right now due to the rise of e-commerce and is set to grow. In fact, the pandemic only exacerbated online shopping and the demand for packaging and labelling products.At current levels Macfarlane Group shares look cheap to me with a price-to-earnings ratio of 14. In addition to this, buying the shares now would help me build a passive income stream. Macfarlane has a dividend yield of over 2.5%, which is already higher than the FTSE 250 average yield.I do believe Macfarlane Group is an exciting growth stock with lots of potential ahead. At current levels the shares are cheap and pay a dividend. Macfarlane has a consistent record of growing performance and completes acquisitions to enhance its offering too. It is also operating in a burgeoning sector thanks to the rise of e-commerce. I will be buying the shares for my holdings and holding them for the long term.