Macau Property Opportuni... Share Discussion Threads

[zangdook] 25/2/2022 09:00

I hope not. My average is a bit higher than that. I can't see them letting it go that cheap, given the things they've said.

[livewireplus] 25/2/2022 08:41

Indeed. Let us hope they can wind it up by mid-2023. No doubt there will be a sizeable discount - I'd be happy if the realised amount being 65p per share ....

[spectoacc] 25/2/2022 08:22

Doubt there was much choice but to sign up to the 100k/month - who else is going to manage it?

[zangdook] 25/2/2022 07:50

I can't help wondering if $100k a month isn't a little high, but I presume it includes various costs that are incurred, and isn't all profit. Otherwise they'd only need to string it out for 18 months to exceed the maximum realisation fees.

[livewireplus] 25/2/2022 07:44

RNS: Changes to Investment Management Agreement

[zangdook] 19/1/2022 10:52

Not too sure about this, but at least the place is getting some attention.

[zangdook] 18/1/2022 08:08

“We were surprised the government’s stance on some contentious topics has become far less onerous, if not surprisingly accommodative,” analysts at JPMorgan wrote in a note following the announcement. “We think this should help normalise multiples to some extent and make this space — finally — investable for a wider swath of investors.”

"This space" being casino operators rather than real estate, but there should be a feed through, in the housing market if not immediately in the share price here.

[spectoacc] 15/12/2021 08:48

Gone a bit quiet. No change to #802 - still seems uninvestable. But must be worth something to somebody.

[zangdook] 03/11/2021 11:25

Better not be too cheap, my average is only just under a pound...

[spectoacc] 18/9/2021 14:29

"Macau Property Opportunities (MPO) dropped 6% as casino operators such as Wynn Macau plunged up to 30% after the government kicked off a regulatory overhaul in the territory. Shares in the small Guernsey fund that is attempting to wind up have halved over five years and trail on a 60% discount to NAV."


China, or anything connected to China, feels uninvestable atm.

[woracle] 16/9/2021 05:57

With China's zero tolerance to covid and current nanny state actions, the sentiment towards Macau is only gonna get much worse over the next 12 months when the re-licensing bids.



With all that extra supervision, the highrollers will be going to ASEAN to play then.

[spectoacc] 23/7/2021 09:23

Aye, same as Australia, but it still means the problems Macau are experiencing. Sydney gets 100 cases and the entire area gets locked down. Not sure when that ends - presumably when Delta's run through the rest of the world, but when is that? USA only at the start of Delta.

So either a proper outbreak in China, or more likely more of the same - Covid pops up, restrictions reappear, economic activity take s dive.

That final scenario above, visitor numbers 8m vs 39.4m, seems likely to remain for years.

[zangdook] 23/7/2021 09:18

"Not sure how China's managing to largely avoid Covid"

Very strict entry controls, and react quickly and strictly to any outbreak. Pretty much the opposite of whatever Johnson does.

Yes, it'll be a wait, but it should be at least 100% up from here.

Macau's main sources of revenue and migration being China and HK, assuming all three can maintain their comparative success so far, it's really just a matter of organising the systems to allow travel again.

[spectoacc] 23/7/2021 09:05

Agreed, the same long wait we've always had I guess (not currently a holder).

Key metrics - NAV down (again), tho only small.

NAV discount enormous (c.56%)

LTV 49%.

Not sure how China's managing to largely avoid Covid - if and when the Delta variant gets in, things could get a lot worse, over a long-ish timescale.


"Tourism - nascent recovery hits a speed bump

In 2020, Macau recorded an 85% YoY decline in tourist arrivals, with approximately 5.9 million visitors. This year, with largely quarantine-free travel between Macau and mainland China, visitor arrivals increased and accelerated in March, April and May to hit a high of around 45,000 daily arrivals during May's Golden Week holiday - c.60% of the daily average for mainland arrivals set in 2019. During the first five months of the year, Macau welcomed a total of 3.4 million visitors, up 4.7% YoY.

In June, the territory's recovery hit a speed bump when neighbouring Guangdong Province, the main source of visitors to Macau, recorded new COVID-19 outbreaks which reduced visitation to Macau. Fortunately, Guangdong authorities acted swiftly and appear to have brought the situation under control and Macau authorities expect the average daily number of visitors to return to around 30,000, similar to that in May, during the upcoming summer holiday.

There was optimism that the long-awaited Macau-Hong Kong travel bubble could be activated soon, provided there is no local transmission of COVID-19 in Hong Kong for 14 days. However, Macau authorities subsequently announced that they required more time to assess the latest COVID situation in Hong Kong, and the potential easing of travel restrictions with Hong Kong will be subject to discussions with Chinese mainland authorities.

For 2021, the Macau government has revised down its forecast of visitor arrivals from 10 million to 8 million, which was around 20% of the pre-pandemic record of 39.4 million visitors in 2019."

[galeforce1] 23/7/2021 08:47

Looks like we still have quite a long wait here.

The Hong Kong - Macao travel corridor hasn't re-opened. Tourism from mainland China to Macao is still much reduced.

MPO don't seem to be able to let or sell much.

So more patience needed. Things will get back to normal, it's just going to take a bit more time that we expected.

[spectoacc] 18/2/2021 11:02

It'll be a nice problem to have, when we have it :)

Guessing they'll return cash eg at NAV, which itself should cut the discount.

[zangdook] 18/2/2021 10:10

Interims read ok, in the circs.
I seriously hope that when they have money to spare they do buybacks in the market, and not distributions, unless the discount has narrowed to say 10% or less. That way those of us who are in till the death will benefit most, and those who have to leave the party will get some help on their way. Right now there seems to be a glut of shares available.

[zangdook] 10/2/2021 14:34

curiouser and curiouser. now it's 68 to buy and 68.05 to sell. Still not really arb territory... I have to think SETS doesn't work properly, if it can't put these buyers and sellers in touch with each other.

[zangdook] 10/2/2021 12:38

It's happening again, you can buy at 68 and sell at 68.0012.

I'd love to understand the mechanics of it. It feels like a few market makers not really paying attention to each other, but it's a SETS stock.

[zangdook] 09/2/2021 09:34

I can buy at 68.24 and sell at 68.25 this morning. Not that I have, mind you.

[zangdook] 03/2/2021 11:29

It could be a beneficiary in time, but at present anyone travelling in either direction between HK and Macau is subject to 14 days mandatory quarantine (with a few narrow exemptions at the HK end), and non-{China / HK / Taiwan / Macau} residents are not allowed entry to Macau at all.

Still, anyone willing to put their money aside for 1 - 2 years should do very well here. There's quite a bit of trading activity if you look at a few days together - I suspect the share price could pop up at any time.

[zangdook] 02/2/2021 10:55

Welcome to the club. With any luck, it won't be too long term.