Luceco Share Discussion Threads

[simmsc] 21/3/2023 08:13

It's a bit hard buying shares when you're in the middle of the jungle in Asia in a taxi... Very bumpy. But it's fun.

[simmsc] 21/3/2023 08:03

Great, I'm having some then. Broker updates already in my inbox.

[cyberbub] 21/3/2023 08:01

Looks like Mr Market is in 'sell on news' mode, sigh

[simmsc] 21/3/2023 07:49

Comparing to pre COVID is exactly what sensible investors, analysts and companies do. What's the point in comparing to abnormal or inflated periods. It has nothing to do with desperation.

[cyberbub] 21/3/2023 07:46

Yes they cut the divi in order to reduce debt AIUI.Bit quiet on here this morning, no further comments?

[cyberbub] 21/3/2023 07:25

Sceptical, really??

[cyberbub] 21/3/2023 07:25

Seems very positive to me, and bullish for 2023! Customer destocking coming to an end, input costs under control, shipping costs dropping.In terms of 2019 comparisons, I don't see what else they can do, 2020, 2021 and 2022 were exceptional years, so I think it's only fair to compare to the last non-exceptional year. However that should be the last of the comparisons for sure!

[scepticalinvestor] 21/3/2023 07:21

Run for the hills

[se81] 21/3/2023 07:19

Divi has actually been cut in half

I thought we'd seen the end of comparisons vs 2019, always looks a bit desperate

Thats the nadir though, onwards and upwards I suspect

[masurenguy] 21/3/2023 07:15

Performance highlights

- 2022 results in line with January Trading Update:

o Revenue: GBP206.3m

o Adjusted Operating Profit: GBP22.0m

o Adjusted EPS: 11.1p

-- Results reflect normalisation after a record 2021 performance:

o Slowdown in Residential RMI demand post-lockdown

o Significant but temporary headwind from distributor customer destocking

-- Results remain well ahead of pre-pandemic levels:

o Versus 2019:

-- Revenue +20%

-- Adjusted Operating Profit +22%

-- Adjusted EPS +44%

o Gained share in attractive markets

-- Improving momentum in the second half:

o Strong Non-Residential demand

o Resilient Professional Residential RMI demand

o Customer destocking nearing completion

o Gross margin improving and input costs reducing

o Strong cash generation

o Healthy balance sheet

Outlook

-- 2023 trading in line with expectations
-- Seeing expected tailwinds from improving trends in:

o customer destocking

o gross margin

o input costs

-- Slower Residential RMI market, as expected
-- Comparatives get easier as the year progresses
-- Well positioned to progress as market conditions improve

CEO John Hornby said: "These results are significantly ahead of pre-pandemic levels and, although they don't match the record benchmark set last year, they underline the strategic progress we have made over recent years. A record cash flow performance for the year has also left our balance sheet in great shape. Our trading performance relative to prior year reflects the particularly buoyant demand we experienced in 2021, boosted by COVID lockdowns and stocking up by our distributor customers. It also reflects slower demand in 2022 as residential RMI markets have normalised and as our customers have run their stocks down. I am pleased to report that destocking by our customers is nearly complete. Trading in early 2023 has been in line with our expectations, with tailwinds from reduced customer destocking, improved gross margin and lower input costs balancing less residential RMI activity. Whilst the macroeconomic outlook for 2023 remains difficult to judge, I am encouraged by the healthy underlying trading momentum we are carrying into the year which leaves us well positioned to progress as market conditions improve."

[ayl30] 21/3/2023 07:09

In-line, double divi

[masurenguy] 21/3/2023 00:46

Trading update issued circa 9 weeks ago on 19 January:
"The Group expects to report full year revenue of c.£206m and Adjusted Operating Profit at the upper end of the previously guided range of £20-22m. We expect to report pre-IFRS 16 net debt at 31 December 2022 of £24m (30 June 2022: £53.9m), equal to 0.8x Adjusted EBITDA (30 June 2022: 1.4x). This significant deleveraging was driven by record full year free cash flow of c.£30m."

[cyberbub] 20/3/2023 17:02

Alea jacta est

[cyberbub] 20/3/2023 15:46

Results tomorrow!!

[simmsc] 17/3/2023 11:50

This really wants to go up. It doesn't want to break the handle on the cup

[johnv] 15/3/2023 13:53

Noticed that there is a gap around 107 from Jan.

[cyberbub] 13/3/2023 16:03

Personally I wouldn't trust the Vampire Squid as far as I could throw it. But I think it's likely that inflation will drop yes, which should be good for Luceco, as long as the banking situation doesn't escalate.

[simmsc] 13/3/2023 15:42

Time to buy here again

Goldmans predicting sub 2% UK inflation this year

[cyberbub] 13/3/2023 09:25

Stop losses probably hit...

[shanksaj] 13/3/2023 08:48

Profit taking driving price down? Now SVB UK taken over by HSBC things should calm down in ftse 350.

[cyberbub] 10/3/2023 10:37

A bit disappointing here today, but it's a sea of red across the market to be fair.

[ymaheru] 06/3/2023 22:35

Labour cost is definitely an issue.

From what I remember, higher energy prices have been neutral before, as higher production costs are offset by increased LED sales. Must be a limit to that, though, so agree that both could be negative.

[ymaheru] 06/3/2023 21:24

They’re just passing on extra copper costs to customers as a surcharge, so it should make no difference.

However, lower overall product prices will result, so stimulating sales. Lower copper prices are good.

A lot of why LUCE’s price has fallen is investors overly worrying about high copper prices, so lower copper prices must be positive for LUCE’s share price.

[pugugly] 06/3/2023 20:53

But how much unhedged copper have they had to buy and now possibly having to sell at a loss. Will all depend (imo) on the success or otherwise on their success in hedging or otherwise - Only time and the next rns's will advise us.

[john09] 06/3/2023 19:09

Freight and chopper lower than a year ago

Share price was 240p a year ago

Ergo…