Low & Bonar Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 18/12/2019 15:01

Schroder sell another 250k...

[time_traveller] 17/12/2019 20:34

Indeed. Just a few words from Dayan wouldn't go amiss, and would tick the trading update box. It's in his interest, and certainly in the employees interest that it all goes through smoothly, as I assume they'll be taken on by Freudenberg. I very much doubt they would dare rock the boat by entertaining a higher bid, so there is no premium factor, and it's all risk discount, which is very difficult to quantify. My guess is that there is an "understanding" between management, Sterling and Freudenberg, but I have rarely felt so in the dark about an investment.

[kinwah] 17/12/2019 19:28

I know it is just 100k shares and there might be specific reasons for it but Schroders selling for the first time during the bid looks rather worrying. Over the last decade they have been closer to this stock than any other mainstream institution. They even appointed a LWB fd to the board of one of their investment trusts. I hope the uncertainty can be resolved soon otherwise investors' nerves will be shredded.

[time_traveller] 17/12/2019 10:25

Getting nervous now though!

[time_traveller] 16/12/2019 15:14

Difficult to read anything from such minute volume. Bit disappointing buying hasn't come in, but with everything else booming,LWB isn't an especially brilliant place to park your money at the mo, so I guess some selling to raise cash for something more exciting.

[cc2014] 16/12/2019 13:42

12.95 to buy now. Difficult to read but market has less and less confidence the deal is going ahead.

[time_traveller] 13/12/2019 08:15

The more stable political environment in the UK, and potentially US/China should enhance confidence in going forward with the bid. Of course the TU would be ugly as sin, but the outlook just got brighter. An outside chance of another bidder, (but unlikely imo). That said, even exiting at the bid price, I still would have been better off selling immediately following the bid, and putting the proceeds in any number of neglected value stocks on the FTSE350. 15.5p now looks cheap - frustrating these things take so long.

[cc2014] 10/12/2019 10:07

Seen this on INTU. If the market decides the price the buyers are paying is too high, it becomes very difficult to proceed at that price.

[baner] 10/12/2019 09:07

no smoke without a fire..........

[kinwah] 05/12/2019 16:57

Presumably as the company still has to fulfil its obligations as a premium listed company, while we are waiting for the merger clearances we can still expect trading updates. Last year there was a trading statement on 14th December so we might get one next Friday afternoon at about 6pm. I'm not sure a trading statement would make much difference to the share price unless there was a warning about liquidity and a threat to going concern. It all now rests on the CMA and other competition authorities as to whether shareholders get their 15.5p or it ends in disaster. Good luck to any remaining shareholders!

[cc2014] 05/12/2019 12:27

Well it's a conundrum. The insders aren't buying even when the price falls to 13.3 but nor are they selling. More a drift down on small volume.

And then the MM appear to be disinterested in making a market as well as shown by the wide spread for hours on end.

[time_traveller] 04/12/2019 10:59

As a stand alone company, LWB is now of little value, but it remains a valuable and very cheap "plug in" for a larger diversified industrial, (and I also thought this during my ill fated top ups through the long descent in its SP). The market for share trading has dried up as one would expect, so the selling by smaller investors is knocking the price back, but the bigger players seem to be staying put, or increasing. To me, the discount looks about right in the absence of the likelihood of another bidder coming along - I was more puzzled when the share price was ~15p after the bid. It's a toss up for me whether to hold - a 15% reward for holding a moderate risk for 4-6 months - better plays may be elsewhere, so I might reduce a bit.

[cc2014] 02/12/2019 15:18

Coeruleoalba,

I'm not in this trade any longer but you can check the detailed timetable on LWB's website.

However, these things take time and the takeover probably won't complete for another 6 months or so. Up until almost the very last days the bid can be pulled, re-priced and yes even a counter-bid could take place.


The discount is now 13% at 13.5p vs the offer at 15.5p which is more than usual at this stage and for example higher than the INTU bid when that one fell apart.


I'm not getting it really. I get the bid at 15.5p as that's the open offer/rights issue price and would clearly get support (which it did), but given that LWB will breach their banking covenants without the bid (just how bad is their trading position if after a £50m rights issue only 8 months ago on a market cap of now £90m) it's breaching it's covenants again. On this basis it seems worth well not very much (sub 5p anyway, maybe 2p).


So, bidder pays around £107m and then has the debt as well, a number which I can't even be bothered to look up properly but at mid-year was expected to be £110m. Ok, so LWB has some fixed assets and the bidder can refinance the debt at a lower interest rate, but regardless I'd say the transaction looks challenging.

Add in the exchange rate risk of a conservative government with Sterling improving minimum of 5% and nothing seems to be going LWB's way.

[squintyflinty1] 02/12/2019 12:58

The risk/reward ratio of things going through is not good.I've decided to bail out.

[coeruleoalba] 02/12/2019 12:24

Does anyone know the status regarding the next step? Is this public?

[baner] 02/12/2019 09:04

no doubt the market is now discounting an increasing risk that this deal will fall apart - or at least be renegotiated. the germans are of course in a really strong position here and can more or less dictate terms.if they pull out, L&B will face the risk of an immediate administration procedure, in which case shareholders risk getting absolutely nada out of this mess.

[cc2014] 29/11/2019 16:26

Price fallen to 13.5. Mr. Market is nervous about this one.

[cc2014] 18/11/2019 10:52

Sterling and Christopher Winn adding.

Share price suggest some are getting increasingly nervous about the offer.

[baner] 17/11/2019 16:29

high risk in this game. if the german´s pull out it is ten and out for L&B. so you can earn a penny and a half in a short period of time, fine, but you can lose 14 pence sooner than that. not tempting.

[cc2014] 13/11/2019 09:56

Weiss still selling. Now down to 6.3m shares from a peak of 9.7m. At 6.3m they are below 1% so we won't see any more RNS's from them

On 30.09, 10 days after the takeover approach they declared 7.3m. Hard to know if they bought them all in those 10 days or had them beforehand.

Difficult to say why they are selling but it looks like they are the only significant seller. There is certainly no stampede from anyone else

[meijiman] 06/11/2019 10:27

Thanks for that post.Clearly he can make a nice turn on his stake if the deal goes through at the offered price from the German outfit.Difficult to see why there is a wide spread here or what could derail the bid.

[cc2014] 06/11/2019 10:17

Current buying appears to be coming from Christopher Winn who made £11m from the sale of his shares on Sanderson

[meijiman] 05/11/2019 13:47

All looking good/on track...