Low & Bonar Share Discussion Threads

[escapetohome] 20/6/2019 12:24

Im in folks!

[time_traveller] 20/6/2019 09:41

I'll be looking into the rules for fund raising. And if there's an attempted takeover below the OO price, or similar shenanigans, then I'll certainly be asking the FCA to look into it.

[justiceforthemany] 19/6/2019 20:10

Perhaps the FCA need to look into this disaster. 90p to 6p in 2 years?!! I suspect foul play and fraud. The board of directors should be jailed.

[time_traveller] 19/6/2019 17:55

I raised an eyebrow at the idea of a falling wedge, just formed because the chart is squeezed against the zero axis?! I can also make the copper bottomed prediction the share price will definitely not break the support at 0p!

Notwithstanding that, I think LWB will be able to continue trading for several months yet, come what may - so it's not rocket science to predict that the share price will at some points during that time, spike up between the square root of F all, and the cubic foot of F all. And damn difficult and risky to trade the fluctuations profitably, when the spread and variance is usually huge. As a long term holder still holding, personally all one can do is take a philosophical interest in what becomes of this dog. What does leave a bad taste is how soon after fleecing investors for the fund raise, they came out with yet another profit warning (and I'm sure we've had far more than two since the heady days of 90p).

[justiceforthemany] 19/6/2019 16:55

Looks like even Zak Mir got this badly wrong.

[ed 123] 19/6/2019 11:06

Ta, CC2014. Good post.

[cc2014] 19/6/2019 09:19

I've met Zak and had the pleasure of talking to him for a couple of hours over a few beers.

I'd put it this way. The share community is full of "tipsters/experts" who know very little, have no integrity and can push a story. In the background they will be running their own position or making a buck some other way out of subscriptions. Most of them become popular for a few years and then disappear, mostly I think because even with the help of front-running their positions they still lose money as they never get a grip on risk management.



Zak is one of the few I've met who seems to have any level of integrity and appears to work hard to provide a service. He's been around 20 years or so at this game. I have no idea whether he runs his own position in the background but I sense not or if he does it his not his main income stream

I found him very amenable, full of knowledge, a nice guy with no agenda and he knows everyone having been around so long. If your crieteris is to lose money as slowly as possible he's one of the better ones. Indeed it might be with Zak you can make money but it will be sure and steady. Most PI's want to get rich quick and gravitate to other tipsters who don't know wtf they are talking about but are more "dynamic".

The piece he's written on LWB suits his character. He doesn't tell you to buy it. He tells you the chart is interesting, with some good indicators and you might want to look at it alot more closely or wait for confirmation. I think his analysis is fair enough. He doesn't mention volume which is usually essential for a long term reversal but there again I'm not sure exactly what he does say. I think what he's saying is that there's likely to be a dcb but the dcb could be strong enough to convert into a reversal if it breaches 8.5


I'll put it this way. Given the volume someone is selling out. Probably a fund who is not allowed to keep FTSE fledglings since it's FTSE demotion. Once that selling pressure disappates we will move up. how far it goes though is open to debate. I can't see it going much higher than 10-12p. Not a bad return if your entry is here. Not great for me as I'm in from higher up but I'd rather 10p than 6.5p.

[justiceforthemany] 19/6/2019 09:19

Volume is down though.

[ed 123] 19/6/2019 08:37

Huh?

Seems to have had no impact at all.

[ed 123] 18/6/2019 23:59

Thanks, Justiceforthemany. :-)

It may get interesting tomorrow? How much following does Zak Mir have? Anyone know? Does he have enough influence to produce a bounce in a small cap stock? We'll see.

Looking at today's trades, is that two big buys after hours?

Notwithstanding Zak Mir's appearance, the issues that prompted the sell-off remain the same.

[justiceforthemany] 18/6/2019 22:31

hxxps://zakmir.com/
It is supposed to be the case that profits warnings come in threes – like London buses used to do, so this would mean we are still awaiting another such hit for Low & Bonar. However, for those who can ignore this rule, and take masochistic pleasure in attempting to catch a falling knife, this could be a situation to investigate from a technical analysis perspective.

The reason being that we are looking at a potential (bullish) falling wedge breakout, one which is backed by a triple bounce off a RSI support line from April. One could say that while the chances of a sustained rebound here may be slim, we are looking at a situation where a proverbial dead cat bounce could be forthcoming. Those who wish to have fresh technical buying trigger would only be looking for an end of day close above the wedge’s resistance line at 8.5p in order to then target a rally to the 50 day moving average zone at 12.66p. Given that this is a falling knife – a stop loss just below today’s 6.56p current floor seems wise.

On a fundamental note perhaps a new CEO and the recent disposal announcement will at least temporarily stabilise sentiment towards this battered company.

[justiceforthemany] 18/6/2019 16:01

DOW up over 400 points. China trade deal could be close. Again buys seem to genuinely be outweighing sells but share price down. Algo trades working overtime.

UT hit 8.5p at one point today?!

[justiceforthemany] 18/6/2019 15:43

These are FTSE tracker funds selling due to index changes Monday hence the high volumes. Any new developments would have haf to have been announced by the company.

[kinwah] 18/6/2019 12:53

Good post Ed. The problem of writing to any board member is given the recent history, they may have been ousted by the time a letter arrives. I averaged down with a few at 6.70 but I'm dealing blind. As you say it is a binary situation. My own feeling is that the remainder of Civils is worthless but they may be able to release some working capital from its sale. The company still has far too much debt but if they can improve the operational efficiency that shouldn't matter too much. My own forecast for the interims next month is a small underlying loss and no dividend but it all depends on whether there are hopeful signs for the second half. It's a grim situation but as they say it's always darkest before the dawn.

[ed 123] 18/6/2019 11:43

Bid has now dropped to 6.98p. That seller at 7.04p doesn't look so crazy now.

It's moving into flip of the coin territory. Heads it doubles, tails it goes bust? I say that meaning, it doesn't feel like I could rationally make an investment decision here, it would be a pure gamble.

Shareholders are faced with too much uncertainty atm. Do they sell and risk a strong bounce because things are actually not as bad as the market seems to fear, or do they buy more, possibly to find later that the business was falling fast and end up losing even more money?

Fwiw and imo, the Board owe it to outsider shareholders to make an audit type 'going concern' statement, together with an update on current trading and banking covenant projection.

(PS. I wonder if the recent fall has something to do with the planned sale of the rest of the Civils Division?)

(PPS. Has any holder written to the Board? The Board do have a duty to shareholders.)

[cc2014] 18/6/2019 10:24

I think we can see from the trades today there are two very stupid bot programs running, one buying, one selling which don't seem to care about price only volume.

It's in auction again now. someone trying to sell 36k shares at market, which has now filled at 7.04.

Crazy.

[justiceforthemany] 17/6/2019 18:19

You can never trust the buys and sells data but today the buys did seem to far outweigh the sales (almost 2:1) but share price down 15%.

[meijiman] 17/6/2019 17:41

Can it go any lower..maybe it can tomorrow...priced like an option now

[kinwah] 17/6/2019 16:37

Closed at 6.72p. Disastrous share price performance. I'd like to know what the institutions who took stock in the placing are saying to Peel Hunt.

[kinwah] 17/6/2019 16:28

Some buying at 6.84p I'll try and buy some in the auction if they dive down again.

[justiceforthemany] 17/6/2019 16:08

3x usual volume and a number of AT buys have started coming in now.

[cc2014] 17/6/2019 14:56

I'm not putting any more money into this but it seems to me the pricing has gone irrationale.

£50m and now the company is worth less than that albeit we don't know how much money it continues to make. It must surely be making enough to support the debt and have some free cash flow left over.

I dunno... The stock market can be a very strange place sometimes.

[nick rubens] 17/6/2019 14:36

At this rate of share price decline, if it continues, nil value for equity only 2-3 weeks away.

If that happens it's extra terrible that £54 was raised at 15p not long ago to go down the plug.

Equity investing doesn't seem such a good idea these days with examples like this.

[baner] 17/6/2019 12:20

sterling are likely to be insiders today and not in a position to buy more at these bombed-out levels. probably most frustrating for them........