Low & Bonar Share Discussion Threads

[baner] 25/6/2019 10:32

thanks meijiman - however i do not think they are distressed today. they trade within their covenants and mr dayan has an excellent reputation in the City - having raised a very good price for his previous company Fiberweb.

[meijiman] 25/6/2019 10:15

good post baner..I think that more or less sums up the investment case. Certainly sub 10p looks like it's a decent entry position on a medium term perspective. Can't help though to be selling stuff when the buyer knows you are distressed.

[baner] 25/6/2019 09:04

Assume LB will raise a minimum of £24m in total from the Civils sales. this takes net debt down to £75m. EBIDTA was £34m (99/2.9) per May 2019. Take say £4m out from Civils and pro forma EBIDTA was £30m - with £75m of net debt this takes ratio down to 2.5. well within the covenants. deduct say £9m of depreciation and EBIT will be £21m with EBT of say £16m. knock 20% tax off that and EPS comes out ca 1.8p. if financials turns more stable, the shares should trade at a PER of 10 or better. currently they trade at a PER of less than 4 - understandingly so. risk/reward now looking tempting. upside 2-300% - downside now more controlled.

[ed 123] 25/6/2019 08:05

No trades reported early doors. Perhaps not surprising when the quoted spread is about 25%? Also, mm's are pricing in 30,000 shares, so only £2,100 trade size. Market makers are providing a service of sorts, but don't seem to want any business here.

[ed 123] 25/6/2019 07:36

Well, there it is, the trading and finance update.

Good that they released this, as it removes some of the doubt.

So, short term it seems LWB will keep within its banking covenants. Maybe an uplift in the share price today?

Further out, the stresses are still there; trade war, Brexit, operational problems, strong competition.

[escapetohome] 22/6/2019 13:14

Yup in at 6.2p

No more than a nibble.

[meijiman] 22/6/2019 12:09

Have had a nibble at just over 6p. If not going bust then should be rewarding with a bit of patience..hopefully

[empirestate] 22/6/2019 12:06

should see a decent coiled spring here soon once the weight is off.

[justiceforthemany] 21/6/2019 22:32

Index changes take effect Monday.

[typo56] 21/6/2019 20:37

Yes, volume at close was due to Small Cap index exit, rather than just options expiry.

[justiceforthemany] 21/6/2019 18:59

8.4M share trade after hours. Impossible to tell whether buy or sell. Perhaps Sterling have finally woken up - perhaps it was a tracker selling.

[ed 123] 21/6/2019 16:46

Ah, yes, thanks CC2014. :-)

[cc2014] 21/6/2019 16:40

Ed - it's options expiry. Happens every 3 months.

that's a large number of options on LWB and explains the maneuvering the last couple of days.

Large number of options this quarter on many stocks.

[ed 123] 21/6/2019 16:34

About 18 million shares being offered in the closing auction. Seller is still active.

Edit: 16 million of those were bought at 6.16p.

[kinwah] 21/6/2019 16:19

I've just realised I've lost my Level 2 direct market access for LWB on IG. So no more averaging down for me in the auctions. I'll just have to hope the shares recover to 10p plus so I can close out my positions at breakeven.

[nick rubens] 21/6/2019 12:51

No word from the company on the share price slide either,perhaps they have nothing reassuring to say.

Companies that take on debt that doesn't assist in profitable growth are disaster zones for the shareholders and potentially the lenders too. Great for remuneration though.

I'd rather take a punt in Nigerian oil than what I've been seeing of late in UK companies and the way many directors run things.

[cjohn] 21/6/2019 09:46

justiceforthemany
19 Jun '19 - 20:10 - 1844 of 1855
0 1 0
Perhaps the FCA need to look into this disaster. 90p to 6p in 2 years?!! I suspect foul play and fraud. The board of directors should be jailed.



I occasionally look in on this board, since LWB came up on a new lows filter a few months ago.

I owned shares here over a decade ago, when LWB was a worthy, plodding value share with a strong balance sheet, but have not held since.

I see nothing from the accounts that suggests "foul play and fraud".

The reasons for LWB's decline are no secret. A series of acquistions have over-loaded the company with debt. The balance sheet is still in perilous condition. The recent fund raising was insufficient. Either there will be another fund-raising, or there will be a low-ball buy out, or the company will go under.

[cc2014] 21/6/2019 08:36

Someone deliberately pushed it into auction this morning with 2 shares to try and ascertain whether the seller is still there. Looks like not but it's still too early in the morning to be sure.

[cc2014] 20/6/2019 23:19

Hopefully the 914k trade at 6.059 is the end of the selling

[escapetohome] 20/6/2019 22:35

No hArm backing some very oversold with a thousand or so,

Keeping 75 % of portfolio in bonds, it, and blue chips.

Ive made far more with risky plays, takinf a measured approach.

Too many successes inevitably some failures too.

[nick rubens] 20/6/2019 21:40

Saga, Centrica, ITV are among many that have all plunged since I bought them, so I've not bought anything else since and 1.5% return in a deposit account is my favoured investment now.

I was looking at LWB and Carclo at much higher levels and decided they will probably be even worse than my safer blue chip disasters. Saved me from horrendous losses I've seen at both LWB and carclo in market values.

[escapetohome] 20/6/2019 14:32

Supply and demand for shares.

Use it to your advantage.

Dont Forget fundamentals

Strong buy

[time_traveller] 20/6/2019 14:09

I rather agree - at the moment, on the face of it, all is above board, and no-one stands to benefit from this disaster area; neither PIs, IIs nor directors. If a DEB or Flybe or similar was attempted, I'd raise concerns, but I think it's unlikely to happen in LWBs case. It was poor form to raise funds so soon prior to a profit warning though, and as has been mentioned, with full knowledge of the situation, investors would have been better off binning the shares, allowing it to collapse and not subscribing, (at least, as it stands at the moment).