Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[penandnen] 17/8/2013 21:28

Hi Brucie,
I agree there should be some ethical concern with all investment (I wouldn't invest in Imperial Tobacco, for example). If we don't invest in and buy mining products from SA, who suffers?
SA workers need jobs and LMI offers above average wages for admittedly tough and unpleasant work. SA mine workers simply aspire to a better life for themselves and their families. (Bear in mind unemployment is over 25% in Marikana district and AIDS affects about a quarter of population.)
I can't understand why shorters keep betting on failure of SA mine workers and relish a financial gain at their expense. Did you see this speech from CEO Ben Magara?

[brucie5] 17/8/2013 12:42

I was listening to a news feature on the radio concerning the anniversary of the shootings at Marikana, which makes me slightly ambivalent about investing here. I hope the mine workers get a decent pay rise. That said, it's clearly a complex issue, and LMI is a key part of SA's economic fortunes.

[penandnen] 16/8/2013 09:41

I assume dip in price yesterday was announcement of the fatality at one of the mineshafts. Reaction on SA stock market was quite different. Peak price of the year!

CEO Ben Magara needs to get his safety programme working at Lonmin. He did a good job on this at Amplats.
Oh! and another good "buy" signal today. Liberum reiterates a "sell" - their SIXTH sell recommendation since June - and we've seen a 40% share price rise!
Any thoughts on the Negotiated Trade (NT) 413,000@£3.47. Shorters exiting?

[penandnen] 14/8/2013 20:53

Shorters hid their exit activity today. Around 2m shares were traded compared to 3m shares traded on Monday and Tuesday. share price is still edging up; As is the forward price of platinum.
The AMCU agreement took the sting out of an expected price retrenchment on the anniversary the Marikana shootings. There are still 20m plus shares to buy up to clear short positions. No way for Lonmin to go but upwards for the present!

[brucie5] 14/8/2013 09:42

Thanks. It does look promising from a chart perspective.

[penandnen] 13/8/2013 22:09

4STA - Boring. Saw this same post on JLP and AQP! Any useful thoughts on Lonmin?

[4sta] 13/8/2013 21:02

Slightly off topic : But still a PGM company operating in Bushveld

Are you familiar with ELR (Eastern Platinum)?

-Listed on AIM, TSX and JSE
-Once Canada's largest PGM Company (according to it's website)
-Mkcap approx £41m @ 4.75p, Cash (and equivalents) at end of March 2013 approx c$66m.
- Share price has been well over £1 in the past, with no dilution that I am aware of, taking it down to the current depressed price. TAKE a look at the chart.
-Over 80m ounces of PGM's in it's properties.
-Quite an illiquid stock.
- Operations widely suspended due to depressed prices, but if platinum continues to rise this could change and operations could be brought back online.

For information purposes only, this doesn't seem to be a v.widely know/traded share, do your own research before making an investment choice (buy or sell), and check the above statements to ensure they are accurate too.
Sorry for posting on here, realise may pi ss some people off, but some of you fellow PGM fans may be interested in the story and always good to learn about new stocks.

[penandnen] 13/8/2013 20:47

Hi Brucie.
No I'm not really an expert but I've followed Lonmin since the dreadful events at the Marikana mine last year. I guess back in 2008 a lot of mining companies were ploughing too much capital investment into their operations thinking commodity demand would just expand without limit. The 2008 recession and over-supply of the markets hit producers hard and the resultant negative cash-flow and forced cut-backs since have hurt mineworkers aspirations. Africa has particularly acute problems (but has 80% of the world supply of Platinum). Lonmin tapped the market twice for more cash and its union problems also hit its share price
Looking at the market in general, platinum seemed to have good market recovery prospects. Betting against this always struck me as a losing stance. It's hard to predict long term where the market will go but right now Lonmin stands a good chance of getting into gear and the shorters have to get out quickly or lose a painful amount of money.

[brucie5] 13/8/2013 19:18

This has a very interesting chart, if the recovery is sustainable. Penandnen, you seem to be the resident expert. Can you explain to me why the recent lows were even lower than in 2008 market? This is true of a few commodity shares, which went as low, but few large caps. Is this platinum specific? South African, or both?

[penandnen] 13/8/2013 14:14

Ginty. If you look at the buying pattern today, it looks like at least one of the shorters has chickened out and is closing out their position. With 25m shares to buy, a share price of £4 is easy target but reality is - too many sellers making it too easy for shorters to get out. Why anyone would ignore the bigger picture is beyond comprehension.
Yup, Just looked at closing picture: 1.9m bought, 0.9m sold, uncrossing trade 0.3m @£3.52. Market makers doing nicely! -(Looks like Oxford exiting)

[ginty the brave] 12/8/2013 21:42

nice rise.

will we see 400p soon?

[penandnen] 09/8/2013 12:56

Wow! Onwards, upwards! I still can't see any of the big shorters publishing reduced holdings yet. They must have lost over £25m on their positions in the last 6 weeks and with over 25m shares to buy back, next week looks like further upward share price pressure. I think I'll go short when the share price jumps to £10 ;-)

[penandnen] 26/7/2013 13:16

I suspect the announcement is going to be good news - given current "insider" buying. There are still too many small investors jumping ship. Sellers need to read more widely before losing an easy profit here. See this below:





2013 PMG Supply/Demand - Platinum back over 1500 USD soon

[ginty the brave] 25/7/2013 07:25

sanks is a prat. probably just a bored student with nothing ekse to do.


anyone any thoughts on the interim statement?

[penandnen] 24/7/2013 20:04

At the end of last year, I asked techies to explain long standing short positions on Lonmin. Today, still 5% of Lonmin shares are declared short: AQR Capital Management LLC 0.51%; BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited 1.05%; Bocage Capital LLC 1.26%; GUEVOURA FUND LTD 0.67%; ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLP 0.84%; Oxford Asset Management 0.50%. By my calculations, these guys have lost about £15m shorting in the last month. OK, they made money going into the rights issue but with the current solid upward price trend, they must feel the pain? I agree, Lonmin is a risk investment. It will have ups and downs. But the upside is/was definitely more likely than the £1.17, 87p and 42p buy forecast of Sanks last April ?!!!! Can anybody give me the maths backing a short position here?

[ginty the brave] 16/7/2013 16:47

very close now to a golden cross. closed just below the 200day ma.

[ginty the brave] 11/7/2013 21:51

metals prices rising, dollar weakening. rand weakened a lot. looks good for back to the 300s

[goldfeverrush] 01/7/2013 07:53

Could see £2.90 to £3.All good news out today plus no strike action too.

[gardenarc] 01/7/2013 07:27

looking better..

[goldfeverrush] 01/7/2013 07:05

ALL GOOD NEWS TODAY.

[ginty the brave] 25/6/2013 07:25

tomorrow is arbitration day. Apparently there is a 50/50 chance of the amcu going on strike.

sll good news. not