Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[gardenarc] 09/11/2012 16:43

spot on insails..

[mj19] 09/11/2012 15:21

It doesn't mean they price will drop down to 140 or £2 on a certain date...
" so the big drop will likely happen on 16th November? So that would make it a dead cert for shorting? Can you short a stock that will be having a rights issue? Seems like a no brainer or am i missing something?"

[penandnen] 09/11/2012 14:41

bobsidian
I think it's more about calling XTA's bluff. XTA can't actually block the rights vote on their own and this drastic dilution forces them to support it and take up the rights if they want to keep their toehold. Bear in mind the rights are already fully underwritten by safe hands ready to profit from XTA's reticence.

[bernieboy] 09/11/2012 13:54

Thanks Penanden - so the big drop will likely happen on 16th November? So that would make it a dead cert for shorting? Can you short a stock that will be having a rights issue? Seems like a no brainer or am i missing something?

[penandnen] 09/11/2012 12:44

BernieBoy
Provisional timetable says:
Record date for entitlement under the Rights 5:00 p.m. on 15 November 2012
Subject to approval AGM on 19 November 2012

[gardenarc] 09/11/2012 12:26

Looking very much like XTA will make a move at some point in TIME.

[bernieboy] 09/11/2012 12:08

was the record date for the rights issue yesterday? so if i sell today I still get the shares at 140?

[gardenarc] 09/11/2012 11:39

Are XTRATA still in.

[penandnen] 09/11/2012 11:36

XTA may threaten to use its 25% vote to block the rights but the fund raising will have to go ahead. So XTA is diluted or stays in there? I read somewhere that XTA was looking at a bid for LMI some years back (at £30+?). GLEN/XTA know where value is and I suspect will eventually get the deal done.

[careful] 09/11/2012 11:33

i see xstratat trying to 'help' by taking some juicy assets away from lmi.

[sanks] 09/11/2012 11:31

Is it fair to say a price target of 1.17 is now suffice?
Sensible replies appreciated, if not then its by the oak tree....

.. .....

[bobsidian] 09/11/2012 11:24

You have to wonder whether or not XTA has the power to block the current rights issue in favour of an amended rights issue on terms more acceptable to XTA and other shareholders. That the share price of LMI is not staging a further decline suggests this may be the case.

You also have to wonder what forces are at work to suggest such a hefty discount is the only basis available to the management of LMI to get a rights issue away.

[careful] 09/11/2012 09:49

short term problems to be sure.
but over 3bn of assets on sale for under 900m.
with a 800m rights to bolster the coffers.

[careful] 09/11/2012 09:45

being hammered today on light volume, (1m shares traded for a 4% drop.)
shorters crushing the vulnerable miners.
whoever is underwriting the rights issue is on to a good thing.
they will pick up stock at bombed out prices.

the way this market works is bound to tempt the crooks and wide boys.

[bobsidian] 09/11/2012 09:35

And then XTA throws themselves into the mix to create yet further uncertainty whilst XTA themselves are merging with GLEN.

So confusing.

Hmm.

[theprovosts] 09/11/2012 08:09

theres no hiding that is an outrageous discount.

[bobsidian] 09/11/2012 07:43

Bit of mayhem may ensue here.

Hugely dilutive capital raising exercise suggesting an ex-rights price of around £2.51.

Net Asset Value per share post rights issue at around £3.92
Net Tangible Asset Value per share post rights issue at around £3.36

Would not be surprised to see the share price race down to close to the ex-rights share price before the record date.

Hmm.

[sanks] 08/11/2012 22:28

They're taking it down to £1.17...Sheila told me last night whilst in doggie
Hope i'm helping

Sanks

[penandnen] 08/11/2012 20:00

Indications are that more than 50% of the issued LMI stock is currently shorted. (Squaremiledata.com). Now, I thought there were new EU rules which limited naked short selling, particularly when rights issues were in progress. No way is 50% of the issued stock actually covered/loaned for shorting?
So my question is: Who knows what's really going on here?

[penandnen] 08/11/2012 16:30

Ah! Thanks, Zooshare.
There's going to be a bit of a rush to payback!

[zooshare] 08/11/2012 15:38

over 60% of share in issue is SOL

[penandnen] 08/11/2012 14:24

A month or so ago I thought I'd start buying in here "for a bit of excitement". So far I've not been disappointed! (I must be the only one left who hasn't lent shares out for shorting!!) Does anybody know what the current total short positions are on this stock?