Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[elvisrocks] 03/11/2017 11:45

Dealy, read my last post. It is not the now, not the next six months cash position, but Lonmin has to predict the next 3 years going concern position, at a time, today, when it is within a whisker of breaching its bank covenants either today or next March. Cash today is irrelevant, it is the Tangible Net Worth Covenant that is the problem, and the bankers and the auditors will be all over Lonmin like a swarm of locusts.

[dealy] 03/11/2017 11:43

Ok. But this situation has been known for some time and the company has options given its improving operations

[kirk 6] 03/11/2017 11:43

careful
3 Nov '17 - 08:56 - 14564 of 14608 2 0

This was a reassuring production report.
Net cash up, production up, rand price down, no fatalities.

They probable issued the report to calm investors and not to worry them about the delay announcement.
It did not work.


_______________________________


careful
3 Nov '17 - 10:02 - 14582 of 14609 0 0

grim here.
a market cap below the cash raised at last rights issue almost 2 years ago.
we are struggling for survival again it seems.
trouble is they can never offload enough staff to rightsize the business.
unions too strong.




LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

[onedb1] 03/11/2017 11:42

Market cap is now about $305m vs the $1.1bn the assets are meant to be worth for the review . An impairment potential spooked the market but the complexity of the valuation needed more time for the review . Now if last month we were told and given the go ahead , what on earth could have changed in 30 days when we are also given cash and production figures ? So if we get no impairment and we continue with the operational improvements today will prove to have been a great opportunistic buy . A deal will be found . Too much at stake from both sides

[elvisrocks] 03/11/2017 11:41

Probably only RedBaron has the intellect to understand this. What Lonmin has said is that its Tangible Net Worth is now at $1.1bn, that is within a few million of breaching its covenant. It cannot now wait until March 2018 for its next test - the accounts shows a 5% movement in any of Metal Prices, XR or Production Rates have a $300m swing. So it has to implement and accelerate Plan B now, involving what would be at least a 3 year fix of its borrowing arrangements (in other wordsf what was 5 years away 2 years ago is now upon Lonmin now) and this is not just because of the covenants tests but because London Stock Exchange Listing Rules dictate the Directors consider at least a 3 Year Viability Statement, so it has 'go big now'on fixing the problem, meaning agreeing asset sales probably, swapping its debt facilities for something new (could be a debt for equity swap even) all to get the bankers off its back due to the covenant problem. The bankers hold the negotiation cards here, could be at least Xmas before we see another announcement, so I think we can even expect to be back to the 40p days.

[dealy] 03/11/2017 11:41

How can a business that has 100m of net cash, generates 80m of net cash after capex in a booming world economy be in a "going concern" conversation?

[glenkaz] 03/11/2017 11:34

Soooo tempted to sell and jump in here ✌️

[mj19] 03/11/2017 11:29

Lonmin, down 22%. Sales of platinum increased during the fourth quarter, but the firm warned the publication of its full-year results will be delayed as its operational review has required management's "undivided attention". Sales of 218,687 platinum ounces in the three months to the end of September increased by 3.6% year-on-year. The firm said its operational review, announced in August, has continued as a going concern due to "material uncertainty" over existing debt facilities in a "weak economic and pricing environment". As a result of the operational review requiring management's "undivided attention", Lomin said the preparation of its audited full-year results has been delayed. It will not be appropriate to publish the 2017 results on November 13 as originally planned, the firm said, and a further announcement will be made in due course.

[deanroberthunt] 03/11/2017 11:10

half mcap in cash

[deanroberthunt] 03/11/2017 11:10

net cash up to $103m from $86m, looks fine to me...

[glenkaz] 03/11/2017 11:08

🐜 you need to close your short mate! Where is pjm! The c/nt! 🤡✌A039;

[bullet ant] 03/11/2017 11:03

OH MY GAWH DEALY THE EXPERT

CLN FROM 100P TO 48P

MARCONI TO 0P


AND HIS FAMOUS JARVIS THAT PUT HIM IN BROADMOOR FOR 5 YEARS INCARCERATION.

HE'S A DANGER TO HIMSELF AND OTHERS.


BA
STEALING IS GOOD

[bullet ant] 03/11/2017 11:02

DON'T LET THIS PIG RISE.

KILL KILL KILL

70P CLOSE TODAY THEN BANNNNNNNNNG 34P


BA
STEALING IS GOOD

[mj19] 03/11/2017 10:53

If everything's better why won't the bank support them. Losing 10k now

[dealy] 03/11/2017 10:49

Reminder that a test needs to be undertaken for its banking facilities. Banks already indicated flexibility with the Pandora deal

[glenkaz] 03/11/2017 10:48

I moved money to ggp! It was a pure fluke I did! And want you all to get a bounce as overdone! Don’t wanna sell ggp to get back in! If I had money I would chuck it in here! Gla! 🤡✌A039; Lonmin owes me over £100k In losses that’s why I told you to F off! And apologise!

[kirk 6] 03/11/2017 10:44

Production is up and cash levels are up so what on earth is so bad here?

[mj19] 03/11/2017 10:42

What was so bad?

[ashwani01] 03/11/2017 10:35

Glenkaz. Thought you said you got out yesterday. Should be in a good position to get back in. I did too but back in a bit too early at 96 but happy to wait

[glenkaz] 03/11/2017 10:31

90’s coming IMO! Fill your f in boots! 🤡✌A039;