Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[abryer] 20/11/2015 14:24

I got LMIN showing in my portfolio now. Just spoke to my broker because I still do not have option to take up rights in full. Informed it will be sorted later this afternoon.

[elvisrocks] 20/11/2015 14:23

Still an arbitrage. 1.13p LMIN v 1.35p LMI

Correction at this level (assuming LMI stays where it is), then LMIN rights go to .35p

or about 18-19p in yesterday's money
or about 2-3p above the trade closing price on the 6th before terms announced
or about 2 times TERP last night 19th (versus Lazy's 10:1 holding level)
or about 20-25% below what Barclays / Investec are saying

[binladin] 20/11/2015 14:22

This is going to hit 1p...

[binladin] 20/11/2015 14:18

I have no postion..

[elvisrocks] 20/11/2015 14:02

Lazy, you're so called 'closed last night at 10 times issue price', sort of odd as you say but I'll try and explain.

At 1p on 27bn rights now in issue they are raising £270m ($400m).
10p = would be $4bn.

Magara put his 'starter value' out there at $1.6bn, which if you are being hugely simplistic is the total balance sheet net assets value with Marikana written down to 50% (all to do with future bank covenants etc).

He then talks about his forthcoming "uplift".

But the company is debt free etc but with a business plan, low Pt price and all that. So how much is a debt free Lonmin so called worth?

Somewhere between $1.6bn .....

25-30p on yesterday's numbers or $100m old co market cap plus $400m RI coming in.
Where Barclays / Investec are at etc

and ......

$4bn to a takeover buyer / controlling shareholder etc

[binladin] 20/11/2015 13:57

All the bad news is already in the share price This was 2000 p at one point and now it is 1.4p what is there to think about!! Bad times can't last for ever,the war in the Middle East will push up the price of platinum....no worries..

[kirk 6] 20/11/2015 13:41

Dussel are you thick? Before post rights the price touched just over 5p the rights issue price then rocketed to over 20p I was trading it day in and day out. We are not post rights yet

[elvisrocks] 20/11/2015 13:41

Dusseldorf, don't forget the heaps of smashes this has had in the last week, shorts have turned to longs, level of confirmed 'double' underwriting available etc plus a whole heap more. At the moment, the market is valuing LMIN at $50m ish above the RI cash shell due of $400m.

Tosh!

7th auction of the day now for LMIN!

[lazyhisnibs] 20/11/2015 13:40

It could be quite different here Elvis.

I just believe that for most people with a surplus should seriously consider taking some off the table if they get a good offer essentially. I could be wrong, I could be right.

Good luck.

[dusseldorf] 20/11/2015 13:38

kirk 6 - The highest POG has been post rights is 7.5p, or a 50% uplift

[elvisrocks] 20/11/2015 13:37

Kirk re Post 6376, are you seeing this in L2?

Great margin for early buyers this morning, I'm not even loaded in CREST yet!

[elvisrocks] 20/11/2015 13:35

Thanks Lazy, that's what seems so illogical at the moment with this LMIN v LMI arbitrage. Like you say PIC are waiting in the wings, plus a couple of others now want to sub-underwrite according to Magara yesterday.

LMI closed last night as you say at 10p so held up very well, it's TERP when announced was 16.25p, so today's falls (on LMIN) are on top of of the 16.25p to 10p.

Weird, but both LMI and LMIN now going back up again!

[1corrado] 20/11/2015 13:33

1.40 to 1.45 wide margin the bid will move up close to the offer............

[kirk 6] 20/11/2015 13:27

Most sell orders cleared now this is a rerun of POG from 5pmplacing price to 22p

[lazyhisnibs] 20/11/2015 13:26

Elvis,

The share price moves over at Petro have been very much as I've said I think, at least according to my memory. Anyone with a better charting package and with more data than Google could check if they cared to.

As to the rights I followed the Lond. SE site's Petro BB carefully. There was a lot of anger. Latterly some of that was that a few posters had been led to believe by others that they would be able to sell their rights at a decent price. I can't remember the timing but I was surprised at how quickly people were complaining about not being able to sell at enough profit to be justify pushing the buttons. So, they were left with a lot of rights they simply couldn't afford to follow.

This BB has been a lot less tricky from the point of view of rampers trying to mislead holders or potential buyers plus most of those taking an interest here are just too savvy and experienced. Also, there is the PIC waiting in the wings to pick up some of what others don't want. Further, this one closed last night at nigh on ten times the discount price and I don't know how to interpret that but I remain very surprised by it.

[1corrado] 20/11/2015 13:26

looking strong since a bought at 1.35p

[1corrado] 20/11/2015 13:22

looking strong now..................

[elvisrocks] 20/11/2015 13:18

Typo, also this arbitrage doesn't make sense, most people are saying they want to go long on LMIN.

[kirk 6] 20/11/2015 13:16

Looking very strong

[binladin] 20/11/2015 13:16

Lets move forward then...

[elvisrocks] 20/11/2015 13:15

Typo that's correct but the view here a few days ago was that those who wanted to get out would have done so about one week ago given high volumes we saw then.

[1corrado] 20/11/2015 13:14

back in at 1.35 as said before.