Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[careful] 19/11/2015 12:33

tomorrow we can look forward to to strange numbers.
large number of shares at tiny valuations.
must concentrate on % movements.

starting at todays 10p.
1.191p ex rights price.
0.191p value of nil paid rights.

lets us see if it opens at those levels.

[ravenna23] 19/11/2015 12:31

Togglebrush, the fact that only 55% of shares voted is not encouraging. It does not bode well for the RI take up.

[mj19] 19/11/2015 12:30

How long will the money from the RI keep them afloat

[togglebrush] 19/11/2015 12:28

Total Votes cast at General meeting was 54.37% of issued shares
'
Major shareholders probably account for 42% of issued shares
'
Success of this rights issue is NOT A GIVEN

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 12:26

So per the RNS about 55% of all shareholders voted (smaller than I thought) of which c. 88% voted in favour and 12% against. Lonmin Chairman Brian Beamish said: "Lonmin is now able to carry out its detailed and carefully structured Business Plan. I would like to thank our shareholders for their overwhelming support." I wonder what that quote means?

And that as they say is that!

[the don of dons] 19/11/2015 12:12

appreciate the story earlier brahms.
got lonmin on the radar and helped to hear the story nice and early.

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 11:58

Same as what Brahms posted essentially.
Thanks again Brahms.

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 11:56

Not heard this VW one before in such overt terms...

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 11:48

Me too Ravenna!
I gave you a like to your post!

[togglebrush] 19/11/2015 11:48

TERP ... Total ex rights price is todays Price x 1 share + 46 rights issue shares at 1p divided by the total 47 or roughly 1.1917p.

But because of BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) and Historically Disadvantaged South Africans own 26% of the shares (which is required for Mining License ) and they cannot afford to pay and this requires financial adjustment (the sub division etc). In other words the real value of your contribution is less. Read the Prospectus.

Even those trading the Nil Paid shares from tomorrow are liable to find it volatile.

[ravenna23] 19/11/2015 11:47

I am not a professional trader, just a lowly investor. Or should I say lousy investor!

[graham2405] 19/11/2015 11:45

My valuation is based on the current price and what you get for it.

i.e. if you were to buy a share today.

So if you were to buy a share today, and take up rights in full, you would be paying 10p + 46 * 1p. In short you would pay 56p for 47 shares.

That equates to roughly 1.19p per share.

That does not meant that they will trade for this of course, it could be higher or lower.

so, in theory the rights are worth the difference. therefore they are worth 0.19p.


......as I said, in theory.

please do your own maths.

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 11:40

As you wish Chrisbr777, I have been accused of that before on this Board, several times.

But what I am telling you - call a spade a spade - is your questions are exceptionally naive. Exceptionally.

Get a grip Chris. You are on a professional traders Board. I am only saying this in good faith to try and make you aware.

[brahmsnliszt] 19/11/2015 11:37

well honesty is always the best policy on these boards and i admit ive sold my very modest sb long for a very small loss. good to admit the losses as well as the winners here and the short i had netted me a chunk.
too much uncertainty in this for me really until the RI is done and dusted. Then once the dust has settled it will be better placed to judge.

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 11:36

Chrisbr777

What Graham is saying is correct, he is using something called TERP (look it up). Today's share price is irrelevant, it appears to be a position to buy into the 46:1 offer tomorrow. Traders will be working this hard to find a margin.

UBS at 0.40p is double TERP, but what are their assumptions behind it. Could be many, varied and connected to their own strategies.

PS: Elvis only sings songs now, Graham is the one for the maths. He's hot property in that department. Lives in Gloucestershire (or Hertford), lol!

[graham2405] 19/11/2015 11:27

Well it goes ex rights tomorrow morning......

Watch the price drop tomorrow.

But, you can sell the rights, what for is anyones guess.

Given the current price of 10p the rights are worth circa 0.19p each.

Do your own maths, or ask Elvis the accountant to do it. ;-)

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 11:25

Chrisbr777. You are asking very naive questions.

It "may" have placed that into the public domain for its own clients purposes who they are privately advising. They, in theory, believe in that price but you don't know the full facts.

Why does one analyst have Lonmin at 1p, another at 25p and another at 130p?

You need to get a grip. FAST!

[archlight] 19/11/2015 11:21

Thanks Graham. I thought the cut off date for rights was the 17th....oops

[chrisbr777] 19/11/2015 11:21

How would the market typically approach the valuation of the 'rights'? How did the other analyst come up with 0.4p?

[graham2405] 19/11/2015 11:18

Why are people buying???

Well, it has bought itself a few more years....

.....so they want the rights to buy @ 1p.

Regardless, they may be better off waiting till after consolidation.