Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 11:16

Chrisbr777,

As possible illustration of the case in point, if "word" is already "out", trader strategies "may" pushing the share price down as we see now, to reverse up later. Buy low, sell high later in the day, using auto-pilot. Big profit even in a matter of minutes / hours.

Intuition goes out of the window, the private investor cannot keep up.

[archlight] 19/11/2015 11:15

Why are people buying???

[archlight] 19/11/2015 11:15

ADVFN glitch

[graham2405] 19/11/2015 11:11

So. if you don't want to support the issue. time to walk away I guess?

and down she goes........

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 11:10

Ravenna, thanks re Post 6103. Is that what you are saying then, (cynically) the media houses have bought a couple of shares to get them access to the GM, eavesdrop the chairman and phone out what words they can on their mobile phones, pretty much.

I guess it's like election time, the journalist is under pressure to get the word out to the TV stations.

[graham2405] 19/11/2015 11:10

80% for close then......... ;-)

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 10:59

Chrisbr777.

Take a big step back and a deep breath as I said.

Your questions are entirely intuitive but the market is following this situation extremely closely. No one can predict even what will happen this afternoon, tomorrow or next week.

The traders have sophisticated, fast moving instruments at their finger tips, even on auto-pilot. We don't.

[brahmsnliszt] 19/11/2015 10:56

now if youd rather me not post stuff i hear (legally) here then let me know......

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 10:55

Thank you Brahms. I'll take back what I said.

[brahmsnliszt] 19/11/2015 10:53

if you dont believe me.......



(BN) Lonmin Holders Approve No. 3 Platinum Producer’s Bailout Pl an

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Lonmin Holders Approve No. 3 Platinum Producer’s Bailout Plan
2015-11-19 10:48:02.430 GMT


By Thomas Biesheuvel and Andre Janse van Vuuren
(Bloomberg) -- Most investors in Lonmin Plc are in favor of a rescue plan that will see the world’s third-biggest platinum producer raise $407 million in a share sale to keep operations going and avoid becoming one of the commodity-price rout’s biggest casualties.
More than 80 percent of the shareholders represented at a meeting in London on Thursday provisionally supported the stock issue that will also unlock new debt from banks, Chairman Brian Beamish said. While Lonmin still needs to do a vote count, it received good indications that the resolutions will be passed, he said.
Lonmin is reeling from a plunge in metal prices that cut its profit and erased 94 percent of its market value this year.
The miner will now proceed to sell billions of shares at a fraction of the market price on top of plans to cut as many as
6,000 jobs and close unprofitable shafts.

For Related News and Information:
Top African Stories: TOP AFRICA
Top Commodities News: CTOP
Emerging-Markets Monitors: EMMV

Related ticker:
LMI LN (Lonmin PLC)

To contact the reporters on this story:
Thomas Biesheuvel in London at [e-mail]; Andre Janse van Vuuren in Johannesburg at [e-mail] To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Lynn Thomasson at [e-mail] A

[chrisbr777] 19/11/2015 10:53

Surely if this was leaked then the share price would have moved substantially already? Would there not be huge volumes on offer?

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 10:49

I'm not sure I believe you Brahms that this would get leaked even to Bloomberg on a provisional basis. Happy to be proved wrong but I doubt it.

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 10:45

Chrisbr777

You might want to take a quick step back, the kind of "questions" you are asking Kojak are very elementary and look like from the accounting side (I am an accountant) but the way the market is evaluating this has long since moved on and there are no clear indications of value. At the moment the share is at the mercy of day traders and their strategies.

This is going to be a very fast moving share. Tomorrow if the vote goes ahead it will drop to nearly 1p and then you have to think about how you trade your rights. Even professional traders will be challenged on how best to do this. This is a share traders site you are looking at and your need to be cognisant of that.

You said you were "wet round the ears". Be very careful, this share and how the market works through this in the next few days / weeks is as yet unclear.

[brahmsnliszt] 19/11/2015 10:42

yes i see it now - shareholders pass all resolutions on a provisional basis

[brahmsnliszt] 19/11/2015 10:41

has an alert on his bloomberg for all things lonmin..... i havent set that up on mine.
so it was out on bloomberg in that case.

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 10:39

Brahms, but how does your analyst know!

[kojak78] 19/11/2015 10:37

Chris, the property value of Marikana is just not there, it has a utilization value and if it is not used any longer there is no value. Replacement value - if you had to build everything new - is MUCH higher.
A liquidation is just a bad situation to get value for properties that are used in production processes in a very specific way.

[brahmsnliszt] 19/11/2015 10:33

you see - i wasnt bullsh1tting about being a trader ha

[brahmsnliszt] 19/11/2015 10:32

my analyst here on the trading desk told me

[elvisrocks] 19/11/2015 10:30

How did you hear that Brahms, genuine question.

[chrisbr777] 19/11/2015 10:30

Hi Kojak, not sure I understand your definition of book value.

When assets are acquired these are brought into the books at cost. Then different assets are depreciated to a 'book value' over time. Property typically (but not always) goes up in book value. Accountants will typically be required to Mark to Market the certain asset classes to ensure this represents close to actual realisable value for the assets at closing balance sheet date.

I like your comment on the mine shafts below. My reasoning is they could surely get more than $100m for these properties considering the platinum deposits available. I am looking at this in comparison to current market cap.

[brahmsnliszt] 19/11/2015 10:29

i hear the resolution is going to get passed

[kojak78] 19/11/2015 10:18

Chris, in a liquidation current assets can be relied on. the book value of plant etc. is basically the amount they paid for it more than the amount you can get for that. Most of the times that value is zero. In the case of Lonmin liquidation value is current assets minus dubious positions minus total liabilities maybe except provisions for reclamation. And add to that the value of the mine that can be fetched in a sale. Some Marikana shafts could be worth huge amounts of money. Then again if there is a chaotic situation where illegal miners wreck havoc mines can get nearly worthless.

In the case of Lonmin it really is better to go on with the whole company. *Maybe* shareholders would be better of in a business rescue, but we have to be responsible here and do what is best for everyone.