Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[brahmsnliszt] 18/11/2015 15:18

not me careful

small long on a spread bet - but can see arguments for both ways. probably should be flat really but the large volume on the 10th budged me to be a contrarian.

[careful] 18/11/2015 15:16

everyone is talking their book.
those short say it is going bust.
those with large holdings say it will survive and prosper.

liars all, we must make up our own minds.

[rackers1] 18/11/2015 15:13

oh dear , you couldnt make up what this fool writes.



"Fears that the company is going to fold or go out of business are unfounded," said Gavin Wood, chief investment officer of Kagiso Asset Management, Lonmin’s biggest shareholder with a 9 percent stake.


ever wonder why this idiot would say this ?

because hes Lonmins biggest shareholder dummy.
You think for one minute hes going to say .....oh no - this share price is gonna tank.

you truly are the biggest oaf on advfn.

[graham2405] 18/11/2015 15:13

"Gavin Wood, chief investment officer of Kagiso Asset Management, Lonmin’s biggest shareholder with a 9 percent stake."

One, he said that a month ago........

.......He also said.

"Wood declined to say whether Kagiso would take up its rights, saying the investor is "busy digesting" the details of the offer."

Yes, I bet that they digested it big time when the 46-1 was announced.

So, have they gone on the record and supported it. yet.

That's a big fat NO..........

[kojak78] 18/11/2015 15:12

In South Africa sometimes rationality will not be very convincing to stakeholders. Then you have to win their hearts. And that is not possible by a white CEO.

2016 will see wage negotiations in the platinum sector. Precedence in the gold sector is that companies pay different increases. Quite a difference to the past. And Lonmin management will see no increase in payment. Very strong position in negotiations. As Amcu has the majority anyway they will not have to proof anything in the Rustenburg area.

[elvisrocks] 18/11/2015 15:10

Graham darling, you are at it again with your junk mail posting Baby Leon this time, the analyst who slashed his price from 16p to 1p the day the rights terms came out. He has a dummy and rattle as big as our Baby Warren. Even Barclays are at 25p!

Try this instead Graham, from their biggest shareholder Kagiso:

"Fears that the company is going to fold or go out of business are unfounded," said Gavin Wood, chief investment officer of Kagiso Asset Management, Lonmin’s biggest shareholder with a 9 percent stake. "They’re very asset-rich and have a liquidity problem so it’s natural that they’re restructured and equity holders have to put in a little bit of capital."

Everyone loves a try-er Graham.
Keep up the good work.

[graham2405] 18/11/2015 15:03

hxxp://www.financialmail.co.za/coverstory/2015/11/18/lonmin-a-bottomless-pit

"Leon Esterhuizen, a veteran mining analyst now at Canadian brokerage CIBC, pulls no punches in a report to clients, urging shareholders: “Go for broke — vote no!”

"The answer, he says, hangs on the platinum price. At the current prices, “we don’t think it’s even worth trying”."

"Asked if Lonmin is not just buying time and could be asking shareholders for more money in the future, Magara is surprisingly candid: “I can’t say no.”"

"The problem with the plan, according to analysts, is that those long-suffering shareholders will have to absorb most of the pain, while the bankers get everything they want."

Holders should probably not bother to read it, as it ain't pretty.

[elvisrocks] 18/11/2015 14:35

As you wish billpap. Sometimes politics and business have to unavoidably mix.

You didn't care to post back your views on Post 5885 and give us your views on this (the timing of the RI)?

[billpap] 18/11/2015 14:31

Elvis,AMCU wants the mines nationalized and Magara is their man,he is so close in making their dream come true..A leader who achieved 96% wealth destruction,he is into politics,not business!

[elvisrocks] 18/11/2015 14:12

Billpap. He arrived after the Marikana Tragedy, he held Lonmin together. He is a leader. Trusted his finance team a little bit too much maybe (but that's another story).

Don't take the easy swipe at Magara. It's like having a pop at a football / rugby manager. It's a good thing AMCU want him there if there is substance to that.

EDIT

And if you or anyone else want to argue "he should have done the RI earlier", read Kojak's Post 5885 and argue the merits of that.

[billpap] 18/11/2015 14:07

Elvis,you continuously refer to Magara as if he is the Warren Buffet of mining..He became ceo July 2013 when the share price was more than 250,now it is 10..In any other country they would have him mining in a depth of 3000m if he wanted to keep a job in the company..He is there because AMCU wants him there..

[elvisrocks] 18/11/2015 14:07

Great, argument lost again by you Graham.
Thanks.

Keep Trying .... everyone loves a try-er Graham!

[brahmsnliszt] 18/11/2015 14:04

PLATINUM MARKET DEFICIT SEEN NARROWING TO 652,000 OZ THIS YEAR FROM 1.004 MLN OZ IN 2014-JOHNSON MATTHEY
18-Nov-2015 14:00:00 - PLATINUM, PALLADIUM MARKET DEFICITS EXPECTED TO SHRINK FURTHER IN 2016-JOHNSON MATTHEY
18-Nov-2015 14:00:00 - PALLADIUM MARKET DEFICIT EXPECTED TO SHRINK TO 427,000 OZ IN 2015 FROM 1.815 MLN OZ LAST YEAR-JOHNSON MATTHEY

[graham2405] 18/11/2015 14:01

"And Graham .... still waiting .... does the UK Takeover Panel have a marketsurveillance unit or not? "

I could care less.........

[elvisrocks] 18/11/2015 14:00

And Graham .... still waiting .... does the UK Takeover Panel have a market surveillance unit or not? How do you think that unit works then?

[elvisrocks] 18/11/2015 13:52

Brahms, me too.

[elvisrocks] 18/11/2015 13:51

I'm just trying to draw attention to Graham's one-way diatribe Ravenna.

Sibanye, I'm honest I know very little other than what I've learned from Kojak, others and read up on. I do however know that HSBC funded them $300m last month to buy AQP and HSBC are co-underwriter in Lonmin. So they must believe in the industry or they would not do it.

[ravenna23] 18/11/2015 13:50

Brahms, I wish!

[brahmsnliszt] 18/11/2015 13:49

it has been if youve been short ravenna ha

[ravenna23] 18/11/2015 13:47

Elvis, how many people does Sibanye employ? Were they, as Lloyds were forced to take over collapsing banks, made to take over a bankrupt platinum miner? Too big to fail? Learn the lessons from history. The U.K. could not afford a banking industry collapse, SA cannot afford a mining industry collapse. Lonmin will not provide a large short term return, unless you are an experienced trader able to take advantage of the share price volatility.

[elvisrocks] 18/11/2015 13:44

Graham "The UK Takeover Panel have a market surveillance unit"

Why don't you check the website out? You might actually find out that this is true (and then tell us you are the Don of knowledge about its work).

PMSL at my end!

[elvisrocks] 18/11/2015 13:39

Ravenna, that is as maybe, they could well just take 29.99% but then the Takeover Panel will look at concert parties etc as well.

As regards the health of the SA platinum industry, this BB has, I think, fairly concluded that Lonmin after the RI will be the strongest and with some of the best assets. Attention will turn to Sibanye.

EDIT

Ravenna, I understand you have had some experience with UK TOP but so have I.

[ravenna23] 18/11/2015 13:38

Elvis, I can confirm that the UK takeover panel are ineffective.