Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[sr2day] 20/8/2015 00:21

the darkest hour is just before dawn and also the best decisions are taken just before dawn after a good night sleep.

[bouleversee] 20/8/2015 00:06

Other things being equal, ...... but unfortunately they aren't so actually I can't think of one.

[ceteris paribus] 19/8/2015 22:06

Still want to know what strategy Lonmin and other miners can deploy to keep costs down - given that Eskom want to raise energy costs up to 65cent (Rand) / KWhr. Remembering that coal and primary energy costs are in steep decline - how can the miners accept such increases?

[dealy] 19/8/2015 20:57

This is going back to 80p over the next few days. Shorts are going to cry their eyes out.

[nomdeplume] 19/8/2015 19:41

Well, that should push the price up.

[lazyhisnibs] 19/8/2015 19:27

Headline: South African platinum production to fall by 600k ounces next year

Dated: August 12th

[dealy] 19/8/2015 18:43

That's the bottom guys. Forced selling, Glencore, China mess today. Everyone capitulating. Platinum and Gold bouncing now technically. Things aren't that bad. Steady rise from here.

[buywell3] 19/8/2015 16:44

You daft aussie digger you

always wait till the chart says ........ go

[audigger] 19/8/2015 16:40

Bought some more of these today.....averaging down in a big way!

[careful] 19/8/2015 16:26

platinum $1010/oz.
on sleep the sane.

[ukgeorge] 19/8/2015 15:39

hxxp://www.bdlive.co.za/business/mining/2015/08/18/debt-deadline-looms-large-as-lonmin-share-collapses

[dealy] 19/8/2015 15:03

Platinum rising now.

[talkingtrades] 19/8/2015 14:52

Out at 1.5 off my target.Should get strong reversal from here.GLA

[ryan83] 19/8/2015 14:24

very wierd low amounts available to buy

[careful] 19/8/2015 14:23

nash81 SAYS lonmin have a 'massive debt to service'
his long essay did not contain a single financial number.
His statement is false.
Let us consider some numbers.
today platinum is trading at $998/oz.
palladium is up also.

the net debt in the july 24th update was $282m.
this is because there was a stock build up of $177m.
net debt should improve in the second half.
the platinum price is up 4% since the jul 24 report.
that is just 3 weeks ago.
my hope is that ruthless cost control is being implemented.
the current net debt and gearing (20%) are quite modest.
restructuring to enable transformation onto a low cost producer will cost money.
but debt levels are manageable at the moment.

[ryan83] 19/8/2015 13:48

cant really compare the two nash so go ramp JLP somewhere else lol

[nash81] 19/8/2015 13:48

hxxp://www.bdlive.co.za/business/mining/2015/08/18/debt-deadline-looms-large-as-lonmin-share-collapses

[nash81] 19/8/2015 13:46

Lonmin has massive debt to service, debt taken at much higher platinum price which surely will result in breach of covenant. debt taken when platinum price is low will be much easier to service.

also - from lse:

Lonmin, and other platinum producers are in deep shaft mine (huge cost and labour intensive) while JLP is focussing on tailing (low cost and profitable), even Tjate mine is shallow mine deep (not so deep as most other mines)

for those wondering why Lonmin/amplat etc are cutting cost:

i am sure you are aware, those in JLP and especially those who have done their research, are well aware that platinum price is depressed and at the bottom. Lonmin, aqp and many companies are in problem and are cutting cost etc.

so what make JLP so special? JLP is in tailing dump/surface projects which are very low cost (hopefully you do know what is "tailing dump" ) and this low cost project are very profitable even at low platinum price, even more so when platinum price increasing next year, as expected by many analysts. this project also not labour intensive.

many platinum producers such as Lonmin, Amplat etc are mining in deep mine, down 3000m deep underground, hence huge cost are required. obviously for some deep mine, its not profitable to mine at current price. they are also labour intensive and are affected by strike in SA etc.

however, JLP tailing projects which are low cost, are so profitable that several banks already confirmed to part financing these tailing projects. now waiting legal sign off (see webcast)

in addition to tailing project, JLP also has Tjate, which has huge NPV of around 1.6bn. the good thing about Tjate is its not as deep as other existing mine. you can start mining as shallow as 600m deep (see JLP website)

Leon already confirmed they are in discussion with several parties interested for JV of Tjate, not surprising as i am sure Amplat (for example), can see Tjate will be even more profitable (shallow mine compared to other deep mine) then their existing mature mine. these large firm will not take the risk doing the JV with JLP now as we still havent got the mining licence yet. However, once we get the mining licence (within days i believe - see webcast), the uncertainty is then removed and hence will make it easy to finalise any JV.

[bernieboy] 19/8/2015 13:03

TT - good call! As you know I am well into OPTI too. My biggest holding by far!

[buywell3] 19/8/2015 13:00

This is nothing short of a Meltdown in the PM sector in SA

How long will the Gov't stand by and do nothing ?

Whilst technically this share is now way oversold

Holders are bailing at any price and no sellers want in

[talkingtrades] 19/8/2015 12:59

BB,Once closed I will be using some of the profit to top up on OPTI.25p later today or tomorrow IMO.

[bernieboy] 19/8/2015 12:58

And now into the 26s......

[bernieboy] 19/8/2015 12:56

You might even get to close today at this rate!

[bernieboy] 19/8/2015 12:55

Looks like you might be right TT! This is certainly relentless. You must be making a fortune!