Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[worm_c] 11/8/2015 10:36

So if we assume that worst case scenario the company are planning to break even at a platinum price of $964 oz then a increase to $1000 oz gives a potential ebitda on 730000 oz production of c. $26m.

Anything approaching $1100 gives a potential ebitda of $100m.



SO basically Lonmin is a highly leveraged platinum recovery play (punt). There are probably safer ways to ride a platinum recovery but it shows how quickly the picture can change.

Getting back to historic platinum prices of $1500 and you're looking at an ebitda significantly higher than the current market cap.

[careful] 11/8/2015 09:29

in the statement of July 24th LMI gave us a clue.
the price of platinum had fallen to $964 by July 22nd.
they wrote 'on current metal prices the company is ebitda negative.
..and went on to explain the efforts being implemented to reduce cost. they were confident they could achieve their targets.

[worm_c] 11/8/2015 09:00

Platinum price up sharply again this morning. Nearly back to $1000 - up $50 in less than a week now.

Does anyone know what the breakeven platinum price for Lonmin is?

[hectorp] 11/8/2015 08:30

There are small bounces certainly yesterday on the back of a dow rally, but more likely on the Plat rally . Back down we go this AM.
Note the Dow rallied for months, its chart is quite the opposite.

[the_insider] 11/8/2015 07:19

Micky mouse style bounces will happen all the way down to 15p imho. Which one will be the dead cat though??

[lazyhisnibs] 10/8/2015 20:10

"half baked understanding of these industries"

Yep but also half-baked use of stop losses just as much though. (Three fingers pointing back at myself with this. I used a soft stop much higher up months ago but which still allowed for far too much of a fall.)

I can perceive how Lonmin's share price would have a pretty good but temporary bounce with the help of more than two of any of the following:

1) The dollar index taking another holiday from rising perhaps helped by Yellen's FOMC hinting at year end or even H1,2016 which wouldn't surprise some of us


2) SA's resources and mining minister being successful in making tripartite negations happen and functional without cajoling the mining companies in to modifying their plans to a degree that market participants perceive their survival as being nearly as compromised as before;

3) Chinese data taking a break from supporting fears of a hard landing;

4) Car sales data out of Europe suggest rising volumes of NEW diesel cars;

5) Indicators suggesting a lot less PGM stocks above ground than currently are being priced-in by the market, or

6) Management coming up with a less severe refinancing solution than feared and doing it this month rather than in late October or early November.

(NB: The above is a holders' wish list and is not based on changing news, not as far as I know anyway.)

[hectorp] 10/8/2015 18:50

Dow is in a bullish mood however the US stock market is getting the tone wrong, not raising rates is actually a bearish indicator.
LMI well done the long pundits today, hope you took your pennies before close.
there is no reason plat should rise in the face of a false signal on the US economy.
The US market is going down this month - more so.

[careful] 10/8/2015 18:15

Platinum up $27 in a single day.
things can turn around quickly in these markets.
we are all made to look stupid with our half baked understanding of these industries.

[nomdeplume] 10/8/2015 17:23

Hectorp, I see we finished at 40 again today, providing you round it to the nearest 10.

[hectorp] 10/8/2015 14:27

we can wait a session or two, no hurry.

US Fed guy saying they wont raise rates today, until inflation gets abck to normal.
Yet they are manipulating rates already - inflation is higher than their own choice of indicator.
The facts are , they can't raise rates due to all the QE paper dollars sloshing around overseas
and the economy isn't able to handle the outcome of raising rates on costs and mortgages.

[kulsan] 10/8/2015 13:30

its all down to dow direction from here i say

[buywell3] 10/8/2015 12:41

looking oversold for now

[kulsan] 10/8/2015 12:28

ITS BOUNCE TIME DUDE

[pro_better] 10/8/2015 12:23

Why shall it bounce?? Based on what positive news?? On every small tick up/spike sellers are queuing to get rid of their shares. At current situation raising cash will be done by an RI and no matter what the overhang is still huge. August and sept are selling months anyway so all in all sentiment will get worst.

[kulsan] 10/8/2015 12:05

HOPING FOR 50P

[kulsan] 10/8/2015 12:00

WILL BOUNCE..TO WHERE?

[typo56] 10/8/2015 11:27

Investec have today reduced their price target on LMI from 88.5p to 35.4p.

[hectorp] 10/8/2015 08:54

we didn't spike at 80 we didnt spike at 60, dont expect it at 40.

[buywell3] 10/8/2015 08:12

At some point soon it will bounce 10%

[hectorp] 10/8/2015 08:09

pisto10lpete
because there is no genuine value at any positive number even a half pence when the asset, working mines with plat and pal, are a liability at these prices only a strong rally in metals prices will save the company.
Why should another company buy even more of a depreciating asset they already are exposed to themselves.
LMI management are landed with a kipper at present.

[gavinbell] 09/8/2015 22:29

anybody here also in WRES?

ceo own huge chunky 28% (very confident of the success) and worth 3p (see recent presentation). mining licence within couple of weeks

[pistol01pete] 09/8/2015 20:28

LMI should update on website. Poor management they don't feel the need to give a little away pre commitment. I did anticipate 40's but what are the chances of the pride of SA actually going bust. Surely a takeover would be on the cards at 25. Opinion's welcomed.

[hectorp] 08/8/2015 09:43

I am on record of being short SFT much of the time, from the 70 plus to the 20's and even got stick for that on the Shaft sinker board.

I can see your natural proclivity to pick fights has overwhelmed any sense of trading prowess you might have had before you lost your shirt when gold jacknifed back up from 1220's to 1330 back in the day.
Time for you to get filtered you are messing the board up .

[buywell3] 07/8/2015 20:09

Bit like that SHFT one eh

You know , the one you pushed for yonks

Another mining disaster