Lombard Medical Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[rayrac] 04/1/2013 11:46

Nobby, I've tried to buy this am, but there are none available!

Max Market trade is 1000shrs it seems. I'm over that by some and my broker said there no shares to match my order!

[shorewalk] 04/1/2013 11:37

Nobby

You are not alone!!! As I said yesterday I like the graph. 'W' developing which I think could take us to £2.50 and beyond even up to £3. Hint of approval is all that is needed - actual approval could explode the share price The market for the stent is huge and with fat overweight aging Americans getting bigger all the time

[nobbygnome] 04/1/2013 10:41

The MMs really are twitchy today! This could go ballistic if there are a few more buys today. I really wouldn't hang around if you want to buy a few below £2.

I added a few more to my spreadbet position earlier this morning.

Nobby

[nobbygnome] 04/1/2013 10:01

It seems I am talking to myself here, which is surprising since the price is rising nicely.

You have to assume that FDA approval is imminent. However, the volume has been tiny which suggests the MMs have absolutely no stock. So it will not take much to get this really motoring IMHO.

From a chart point of view if we can hold this rise or better still go higher today then it looks like we have broken out from the high in late October. As I said above I think 230p+ is very achievable in the short term.

BTW Happy hogmanay 2BOB. I know you guys take it very seriously up there!

GLA

Nobby

[nobbygnome] 03/1/2013 11:38

>> shorewalk

I agree it will not take much volume to get this motoring if/when we get approval. My reading of the chart says 230p should be readily achievable.

GLA

Nobby

[shorewalk] 03/1/2013 11:18

Graph looking good on virtually no volume. Approval anytime now and then we fly. £2.50 has to be min. next level.

[nod] 27/12/2012 00:23

MVM's investment to date appears to be at the upper end of their stated investment range of £5m-15m per company - so perhaps they just wanted to take something out of LMT by selling their rights.

LSP is not huge with assets of around 36 million euros - they must have some confidence to enter at 140

[bmw30csl] 23/12/2012 15:38

Good news here as I was worried about them screwing us for extending this funding option. Happy to keep holding now.

[multiplural] 21/12/2012 09:28

It doesnt sound good to me that a company with board representation gives up the right to subscribe for new shares at 140. Maybe we are more than fully priced here?

[skinny] 20/12/2012 07:17

London, UK, 20 December 2012 - Lombard Medical Technologies PLC (AIM: LMT), the specialist medical technology company focused on innovative vascular products, today announces a six month extension, from 31 December 2012 to 30 June 2013, of the existing Long Stop Date for the c. £14.1m Second Tranche of the two tranche placing and subscription announced by the Company on 20 April 2011 (the "May 2011 Fundraising"). Lombard Medical also announces that, in addition to certain existing shareholders, the Second Tranche will be supported by LSP Life Sciences Fund N.V. ("LSP"). LSP will replace MVM Life Science Partners LLP ("MVM"), who have decided to assign their rights to subscribe for new ordinary shares in the Second Tranche, pursuant to the terms of the original subscription agreement dated 20 April 2011.

[nod] 15/12/2012 10:47

It's encouraging that the share price has consolidated above 160 and not fallen back. Looking at the trades in October it looks as though there are very few shares in the market and it doesn't take much demand to send LMT up 60%

A few weaker holders would have left in October.

Some +ve news in 2013 could see another sharp rise.

[multiplural] 11/12/2012 08:36

Interesting how totally unefficient this stocks market is. I know that someone is bidding for 10k shares at 168 and someone else have a sell order for 20k with limit 165. Yet no trade happens. How much are these market makers allowed to cut for themselves?

[rayrac] 03/12/2012 08:46

Still buried I'm afraid Nobby! Hi 2Bob, hope all's well?

One day!

[nobbygnome] 27/11/2012 07:52

>> 2BOB

It is just like old times. I remember having run ins with Rayrac in the past ;o)

Sorry it has taken me so long to reply; I missed your post and since then the thread has been buried.

Do you think we will get FDA approval before the year end? My experience is that the FDA tends to clear the decks before Christmas and there is usually a raft of approvals in the few days before the 25th.

It is a little difficult to value the company and of course it depends ultimately on sales. However, assuming there is good take up of the stents, the company is looking very undervalued. I guess the end game is a take over by one of the big medical device companies and perhaps the FDA approval will trigger that process as any uncertainty will be removed.

Whatever happens I can only see upside from here IMHO.

GLA

Nobby

[2bob] 19/11/2012 21:29

-->Nobby
Good to hear from you.
Coming good is relatvive! To put it in context a 200 fold dilution over the last few years would have turned a £20k investment into £100. There will be a lot of pain out there for some.
-->jACK
Greetings.

[rayrac] 08/11/2012 22:04

Still here, waiting for the next rns, probably like many!

[stable] 31/10/2012 09:29

Today 178.50 trade reported as a sell, was a buy

[shorewalk] 29/10/2012 19:33

Hopefully we will receive notification that site visit has taken place this week and that reply has been sent to FDA as per last RNS. This has the potential to be massive and with shares so tightly held will motor on any hint of news - ultimately it will be taken out at a considerable premium to todays price. MM's may try a tree shake to get some shares from short termers but day trading here could be very dangerous and risk loosing the big prize.

[nobbygnome] 29/10/2012 13:39

P.S. chart looks good too especially if we hold the rise today. I would expect a rise to 240 odd relatively easily. Just IMHO...

[nobbygnome] 29/10/2012 13:36

I am surprised how little comment there has been here considering the spectacular rise in the recent weeks. Are you still around 2BOB? I am not sure what the current price is in old money following the fund raisings and consolidation but it must be good to finally see it coming good.

I had a little dabble here last week and if it holds the rise today, I will probably be in for some more tomorrow. It is a little difficult to value the company but in the short term I think £50 million would be fair enough. In many ways LMT are in a similar position to Deltex although the medical device here is much higher value. Longer term this really could be spectacular because similar to Deltex the company will be taken out for multiples of today's price. I expect market penetration will be relatively rapid because the target audience is a relatively small group of people, who have to be well informed.

This all bodes well for the short and medium term so it looks a strong buy to me even at this level. All IMHO of course......

Nobby

[philo124] 22/10/2012 14:27

I sold on the way down. Edison have just out with a bullish valuation.
Might be back.

[nod] 19/10/2012 21:33

Date: Thursday 18 Oct 2012

LONDON (ShareCast) - This week has seen a 40% rise in the share price of Lombard Medical Technology, following an update on October 15th that had well respected healthcare analyst Julie Simmonds pushing out a Buy note, maintaining her price target of 332p.

Admittedly, she works for the house broker Canaccord Genuity, but anyone who has followed her recommendations over the course of a few years will take note of her views on a company.

In a 14-year career she's been Head of Lifesciences Research at Evolution Beeson Gregory, an Equity Analyst at Nomura, Senior Research Analyst at Piper Jaffray and is now Healthcare Analyst at Canaccord Genuity. With a a Phd in Microbiology she can also assess the science as well as crunch numbers.

Announcement

For those who missed the announcement: the Aim-listed company has received written feedback from the FDA asking a couple of questions, which the company says are "relatively straightforward". Lombard Medical intends to answer them within two weeks.

In addition, the FDA has scheduled a Good Manufacturing Process audit of the company's UK facility in late October. The company states that such audits are "typically part of the final stage of the FDA's review process."


Analyst assessment

So what does Simmonds have to say about the latest development for Lombard? She believes it "marks the closing stages of the FDA process."

She continues: "We are encouraged that a date has been set for the manufacturing audit as we believe this signals that the remainder of the submission is in order. With this due to be completed in late October, 2012 approval is certainly still possible, though likely late Q4/ early Q1-13. The timing of the final FDA decision is particularly critical to Lombard as it triggers a second tranche of funding (£13.6m) from existing investors if it occurs prior to the year end. After this date the funding falls away, but discussions with investors lead us to believe that they would remain supportive."

Make no mistake, it has been a tortuous process that has taken years. Without the support of long term investors, such as Invesco Perpetual, which holds 39.28% of Lombard, this story would not be likely to have a happy ending.

"Our investment case is based on Lombard receiving FDA approval for Aorfix at the end of the fourth quarter. We expect a positive FDA outcome to result in a rerating; the current price only assumes a 20-40% chance of a positive result," she adds.

Clearly, it still isn't in the bag until the FDA sings but it is close. Very close.

Writing on October 15th when the price was 101p, she commented: "Our investment case is based on Lombard receiving FDA approval for Aorfix at the end of the fourth quarter. We expect a positive FDA outcome to result in a rerating; the current price only assumes a 20-40% chance of a positive result."

That re-rating higher appears to be happening. Nevertheless, the recent spike in Lombard's share price has occurred on very low volumes given the tightly held nature of the company's stock.

Moreover, US approval when it comes (and it must surely be 'when', not 'if', in my humble opinion) would open up a huge market for Lombard Medical's aorfix stent.

This is Julie Simmonds view: "The opportunity for Lombard is substantial. Aorfix is designed to treat patients with high angle abdominal aortic aneurysms, no other device is approved in the US for this indication. An approval with labelling for this patient group would make Aorfix the only FDA approved product for these complex patients, circa 30% of the $1.1bn AAA repair market, 54% of which is in the US. We believe this would result in a rapid adoption the US (the device already has an 8%+ market share in the UK), and ultimately bring Lombard to the attention of the medical device majors."

Ultimately this is the end game, to be taken out by one of the majors. US approval when it comes should bring this one step closer.

[nod] 19/10/2012 21:32

I agree with Rayrac - it looks like a no-brainer now. A takeover from one of the big boys is on the cards. Even if there are further delays the products probably only require a bit of tweaking to gain FDA approval. I suspect if LMT were a USA company they would have approval by now.

LMT's products have been widely used for years in Europe - competing openly with similar products.

[philo124] 19/10/2012 16:25

Digital Look have full write up of Analyst view on 18th under News; explaining
the 332p.

[philo124] 19/10/2012 16:13

160p plus.