Litigation Capital Manag... Share Discussion Threads

[leadixon] 20/3/2021 19:17

don’t think I’ll be getting my buying dip before end of tax year, has had much more momentum than I was expecting, but definitely doing me wonders as my biggest holding given the ETF space has taken a hammering last few months.

[shanklin] 19/3/2021 16:19

Any idea when the next update will be please? I am guessing early July for a TS relating to the FY unless management have specific news re funds, case outcomes, etc.

[scubadiverr] 19/3/2021 16:15

No Petersen, which could be a positive or a negative. But does mean that it isn't a distraction LiT much smaller scale but with ambition to scale. Future AUM and balance sheet likely, imo, to grow quicker percentage wise than Burford. I'm in both but a much greater weight in BUR. This doesn't at the moment use FV accounting which many here see as a positive. I trust BUR in their conservatism so see it as a negative as makes LIT harder to value. When valuing, CEO encourages use of ROI and IRR, which are higher than BUR historically, but board admit that these metrics are unlikely to be maintained as they scale so not ideal, but no more difficult than Burford!

[riverman77] 19/3/2021 15:38

As someone who is not particularly familiar with the company, what is the attraction of this versus Burford? Burford are the established leader in this field while LIT seem to be more a work in progress. Valuations look broadly similar depending how you measure it.

[parob] 19/3/2021 15:15

That close above 80p was significant.

[se81] 19/3/2021 09:09

No prescribed time frame. Those 2021E suggest an incredibly strong second half, let’s just hope LIT m’ment have provided some input/guidance there

[warno01] 18/3/2021 22:43

Thanks se81. Been trying to grab off the Arden website all day. 1 - I can't find it, so 2 - I can't read it. Does that 140p target have a time frame on it. 12 mths, 24th mths?

Cheers

[se81] 18/3/2021 15:46

Investment thesis and valuation - We continue to believe that LCM
provides the cleanest and simplest equity story amongst the listed
litigation funders at the most attractive valuation considering strategic
execution on third-party funds to date and overall scaling of funds
under management (direct and TP). While settlements remain lumpy,
exacerbated by slippage due to COViD, at 1.6x FY21 P/BV with good
credit and equity funding, demonstrable ROIC of 100%+ and rising
deployments, we see plenty of upside in the shares. Reiterate buy

TP 140p 2021(E) Sales (A$m) 62.3, adj PBT (A$m) 14.4, adj EPS (c) 9.9

[bigbadaussiebear] 18/3/2021 14:20

Managed to get a piece of the first of 5 pages of the report

Sharing below

LCM released interim FY21 results that showed operational progress in deployments and commitments albeit with headline financials that reflect phasing of case settlements and associated timetable slippage due to COVID. The litigation contracts outstanding provide a huge store of value in our view and the maturity of the claims portfolio suggests likely renewed progress in settlements which should drive substantial capital appreciation in the shares over the next 12 months.

[williamcooper104] 18/3/2021 13:23

Yep - I couldn't see it either

[bigbadaussiebear] 18/3/2021 10:38

Arden partners just published a research note on LIT

I can't access it as a retail investor from Australia.

Does anyone have access to it?

If so please email it to me at threeonethreecapital(at)gmail(dot)com

[leadixon] 17/3/2021 22:46

I definitely wasn’t expecting that step up in end of day trading, more bullish than expected.

[johnwig] 17/3/2021 17:50

I get a strong feeling that jonwig backed exactly the wrong horses, as ever. But I shouldn't crow too early: I leave that, as ever, again, to jonwig. LOL

[bigbadaussiebear] 17/3/2021 16:40

Can I get a told you so?

[speny] 17/3/2021 15:49

Nice to see this starting to motor up on big volumes the last 3 days.

[parob] 17/3/2021 15:40

A close above 80p would be really bullish.

[bigbadaussiebear] 17/3/2021 15:30

Remember to send thank you emails and post cards to the tears at premier miton that sold 20% of shares on issue on the open market since 2018

[parob] 17/3/2021 15:04

Closing in on the one year high.

[portugull] 17/3/2021 12:58

I agree Makinbuks.

I think Litigation Finance is still much misunderstood. Holding requires patience. I often think of the saying "you don't meet many poor bookmakers" and I would add "you don't meet many poor lawyers".

[makinbuks] 17/3/2021 12:38

Yes, they tried hard to deal with the question of when results might filter through. Average duration has lengthened from 25 to 27 months but there's a large volume now within 12 months of that.

The managed fund is 70% committed now and needs to be 75% before they can raise more so that point is not far off.

There was a categoric statement that no further debt raise was required. I was surprised that was answered so emphatically as the more English approach would have been to caveat. None the less $25m of the $50m has been drawn already so they must be expecting income to flow soon

I was reassured overall and will continue to hold. The quality of the cases in hand is completely unproven but there is huge potential here in the next 24 months

[warno01] 17/3/2021 11:43

Was very interested that a point in the webinar, the price dropped 7-8%. Trying to correlate if there was anything said about 30 mins in that caused alarm bells of it's a case of MMs dropping the price.

I'm pretty satisfied with the results and drawing from the half year, we could have some big returns in the next 6 months and then a gradual increase from there as the applications and cases translate into a larger and steadier stream of conclusions.

Overall, they sound confident and the numbers are good. I feel there is scope for a re-rate into the low 80s. This morning's pricing suggested there is appetite.

[flagon] 17/3/2021 10:23

Just listened to the piworld webinar that's just been broadcast. Very happy holder. GLA.

[dekle] 17/3/2021 08:50

I have to admit I didn't expect the price to hold up so well. Nearly sold.

[bigbadaussiebear] 17/3/2021 08:35

Good bye weak hands....

[makinbuks] 16/3/2021 18:19

I'm growing a little tired of the hype around pipeline opportunities and future fund raises to finance it. I'd like to know more about the actual cases in hand and whether or not there is enough headroom in the business now to see them through to a result. I shall listen tomorrow for that detail