Litigation Capital Manag... Share Discussion Threads

[maddox] 23/9/2024 14:26

Hi NChanning,

Yep that's the way I see it and if we're able self-fund the 25% commitments, avoiding expensive debt, then we'll be growing the profitability very nicely as the overheads decline as a proportion of revenue.

There is no escaping the variability in financial reporting - driven by case conclusion timing - so share price volatility is a given. It would be good to see this addressed by an explicit policy on buy-backs to discourage too deep a discount to NAV.

I'd also like to see a return to case conclusion reporting. This newsflow was a great shop window into the business model performance and maintaining shareholder interest.

Regards Maddox

[elsa7878] 23/9/2024 12:25

Excellent. Could you give us a little taste of what they say. Thanks

[juuunx2] 20/9/2024 14:55

Nice buy recommendation in IC this week.

[nchanning] 19/9/2024 15:20

It was an interesting bit of info that cases under the fund model have averaged over 4 x MOIC with the benefit of performance fees . We've already seen the ability to underwrite a massive increase in commitments with only a small increase in opex . If Lit can maintain their historic returns as their funds mature NAV is going to start growing at a very healthy rate , and probably with more consistency as the breadth of cases improves. It will surely be over 20% , perhaps it could be over 30 % . Even if they can just reach a more reliable 20% growth in NAV not only will you get rapid growth in EPS but probably a rerating to 2 x book

[gallamar] 18/9/2024 09:24

Can you help.me with definition

We do a new case which might need 100

So 3rd party increases commitment to 75
Lcm increase commitment to 25.

The investment will be how much of the 100 we actually have made.

[tomtrudgian] 18/9/2024 07:35

Commitments to invest are not the same as investments

[gallamar] 17/9/2024 18:26

Another open question. Does anyone understand how new commitments are higher for lcm than the fund in 2024?. I thought new investments are mainly in the fund and we only supply 25pct of capital?

[gallamar] 17/9/2024 14:24

Only good thing about entering US, is that it opens a door to a US listing and this might lead to buy outs or at least better access to us debt markets. Burford said within 4hours they raised $100m of debt.

[mtioc] 17/9/2024 11:40

Agree re US, but reality is that if they want to grow funds under management, they need to deploy more pa, which means US presence required. Suspect they will be conservative.

Agree re divi, but management believe attractive to UK fund managers.

Interesting target to increase NAV per share at 15-20% pa, which means doubling NAV every 3.5-5 years. That would be exceptional.

Quite interesting bit on FV and how performance fees suppressed until final resolution.

[elsa7878] 17/9/2024 10:58

Very impressive presentation. Suggest any investor or potential one should take a look.

[pigeonfeeder] 17/9/2024 10:55

Disappointed they have declared another dividend - would much prefer they pay down debt, or do a share buyback. 30% Aussie W/H tax makes it unattractive for UK investors, especially if held in an ISA or SIPP.

[nchanning] 17/9/2024 10:28

Not in love with expanding to the US where they will be a very small player and presumably a fair amount of start up costs and opex which won't pay back for a while

[dadbod] 16/9/2024 21:55

It would just be someone buying in anticipation of a price rise on results. It's very common amongst speculators. I'm expecting results to disappoint compared to the last fy due to the level of revenue.

[solonic] 16/9/2024 13:47

I find the share action on LIT to be baffling. Today's is particularly mysterious. I have to assume that somebody in the universe knows by now exactly what tomorrow's announcements will be. Over the years I have seen action on several shares on the day before which shows clearly that someone in the know is acting on that type of information. Here, however, so far, as I write, practically no action.

My own feeling is that unless there is still a hangover from the Covid influence we will get good news. But I know nothing.......

[gallamar] 15/9/2024 12:14

Agree with alot of this.

Profits are lumpy, so why they do not just refinance the debt and demonstrate a step change I scale I have no idea.

They need to show some long term strategy other than we wait for our lumpy cash flow to mature and expand conservatively.

We could have refinanced the circa 60aud already and started to preload the new fund. We might save 1 or 3pct a year by waiting but really why!

[mtioc] 14/9/2024 09:26

Always difficult to work out what drives short term share price movements - I gave up a long time ago. The prospect of losing IHT relief on AIM stocks in the Budget possibly hangs over AIM.

LCM is a complex story of a growing balance sheet with lumpy profits and cash. In addition to the points mentioned above, the company's inability to attract a new institutional investor over the last 12 months or so has been disappointing and one of the reasons for a lacklustre share price

[robertbarns1] 13/9/2024 15:22

strange day as being offered high prices now & very little volume ?


something going on maybe

[dekle] 12/9/2024 19:33

Bizarrely IC printed in this week’s issue Interims will be published 17th, finals 17th and finals 19th. I wish they would make up their minds

[gallamar] 11/9/2024 13:47

Great company but sadly it does seem to follow a swing trade.

With gaps in news it is ideal to buy and sell.

At least this time I sold 70pct at 120.
Maybe next time I get the courage to see the lot and buy back

[gallamar] 10/9/2024 20:42

One other thing eagle.

They have gone to court for the queensland power class action. We ate on 25pct of outcome and old articles suggested claim could be 1bn aud.

Interestingly the summary of some newspaper articles showed lcm tabled internal memos that showed conversations about how to find weaknesses to exploit, which is exactly what they are accused of doing!

I would love an update on that!