Litigation Capital Manag... Share Discussion Threads

[hunter154] 04/3/2024 08:11

I have been surprised by the complete lack of news on cases since September. Not sure if it is due to confidentiality or whether cases are being lost.

[nchanning] 01/3/2024 07:19

GreenX metals case against Poland ought to have an award imminently too

[gallamar] 29/2/2024 19:09

The only thing we know is in last presentation they said 8 cases had positive judgement and i think 4 more final hearings.

I think it is circa 2m gbp a case. So 16m gbp capital in final stages.

If we have delays in payments our multiple is going up.

Hopefully soon we will have near market cap equal to cash we invested in cases

[nigelmoat] 29/2/2024 18:53

Yes time for lift off but needs a good news flow following which this could quickly head up. The silver lining for intended long term holders is the current round of share buybacks have taken place at a much lower price than I would have ever anticipated.

[warno01] 29/2/2024 17:27

Been trading sideways for 5 months. Need good results and some newsflow, especially with litigation finance being a lumpy industry. Hoped to be at 1.20-1.30 as a range now with last year's results. Hoping for a breakout but need news.

Things coming:
- Katy/Katie Perry damages in Australis for copyright infringement
- Massive Tanzania case update in March.
- Results

[chuckol] 29/2/2024 14:29

Looks like there's summat up ! But WHAT?

[elsa7878] 19/2/2024 09:28

Hi. Is there any research and / or forecasts out there? Many thanks.

[dadbod] 06/2/2024 22:33

ICSID has struck out two of three grounds relied upon by Tanzania in its application to
annul the Award delivered to the Claimants in July 2023
• ICSID found that the following grounds relied upon by Tanzania in its application for
annulment were manifestly without legal merit:
o manifest excess of powers;
o failure to state the reasons on which the Award is based; and
o serious departure from a fundamental rule of procedure with respect to the ICSID
Tribunal’s determination on the allocation of costs
• The findings are not open to challenge – Tanzania prohibited from raising these grounds
in submissions at the hearing of its annulment application
• Annulment now continues with the sole focus on the remaining complaint by Tanzania –
that the Tribunal seriously departed from fundamental rules of procedure
• Timetable for annulment proceedings now confirmed
• Tanzania’s Memorial on Annulment is due on 15 March 2024
• Total amount payable by Tanzania under the Award now stands at US$120 million –
comprising US$116 million to date plus costs of US$4 million
• Interest continues to accrue at the rate of approximately US$1 million per month until the
full amount is paid to the Claimants

[l2b] 04/2/2024 22:41

IDA TH until Wednesday - we gotta wait for it.
cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02769222-6A1192680

@Boozey the 45-day requirement kicks in post annulment decision by ICSID

[boozey] 04/2/2024 05:56

L2B thanks for your occasional posts, very informative. So if I read this correctly even more delay on Tanzania despite saying they would pay up within 45 days of Boxing Day?

[citywolf1] 03/2/2024 12:51

Yes indeed Robsy. It seems likely to me that there is going to be an explosion 'moment' with this stock (similar to what happened with Burford in 2016) once the market realises the power of the fund leverage. They are effectively averaging >4x returns in c.3 years on their coinvested capital once you add performance fees. In the meantime the low prices are great as we are all increasing our shareholdings as the company buys back c.25k every day.

[robsy2] 03/2/2024 12:08

Thanks again L2B. Good news and more to come i expect. LIT is a quiet company but i think quietly getting on with doing good business and building up the future prospects

[l2b] 03/2/2024 10:13

Another LCM win with the Craft Façade (SG/HK) arbitration case getting successfully resolved - just need the details.

Also, expect news flow on Monday re IDA.

ICSID update:-
"February 2, 2024 The ad hoc Committee issues a decision on Nachingwea U.K. Limited (UK), Ntaka Nickel Holdings Limited (UK) and Nachingwea Nickel Limited (Tanzania)’s preliminary objections pursuant to ICSID Arbitration Rule 41(5)."

FYI Arbitration Rule 41(5) provides an expedited procedure to dispose of unmeritorious claims at the preliminary stage of a proceeding.
Feels odds against but you never know....

On the funding front a bond issuance would give this some extra juice!

[riverman77] 02/2/2024 13:11

Been very quiet here recently - share price essentially gone sideways for last 6 months. Not heard anything from the company since results in September. Should be due a trading update shortly.

[williamcooper104] 18/1/2024 11:00

9.25 but issued at a premium so yield is 7 something

[nchanning] 18/1/2024 10:24

I see Burford's bonds were priced at 9.25% so I'm sure LIT will have to pay a small premium to that . Not much the company can do about that , still clearly justified by the returns on their investments . Clearly a mistake to pay a dividend though while cost of capital is so high

[ntv] 10/1/2024 08:59

seems like a positive announcement this morning but funds won't be received until later in the year

[mighunter] 29/12/2023 08:45

Fund 1, see 20th July RNS

[hunter154] 27/12/2023 12:58

Was this a balance sheet investment or Fund 1?

[nchanning] 27/12/2023 12:19

Great news really as the odds are heavily stacked against appealing the judgment and no need for drawn out enforcement . As is typical LCM's funding structure actually benefits from delays with greater payouts 'In return for the providing the financing facility, LCM shall be entitled to receive either repayment of any funds drawn plus 10% of the funding facility or an amount equal to between 1.25 and 5 times the amount of any funds drawn from the funding facility, whichever is greater and depending on the time frame over which funds have been drawn.

[boozey] 27/12/2023 04:45

Good news:

hxxps://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02758225-6A1188106

IDA share price up 17% at the time of writing.

[boozey] 22/12/2023 07:03

So where does this leave us I wonder:

hxxps://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02757550-6A1187851

IDA Stock suspended.

[l2b] 20/12/2023 10:37

Agree someuwin PAT looks good, excellent RvR opportunity - for both PAT and LCM. 
I will definitely own PAT at some point.
Tho I expect it to take the usual 3-4 years to play out (likely more given the $$$ being fought over) so not rushing in yet.

For now I hold two of LCMs (IDA & GRX) and one non-LCM one (though side connection). 

LCM is a core holding (the others are small punts).

[someuwin] 20/12/2023 10:13

Cheers L2b. Getting very interesting.

On another issue, Allenby have put out a new note on Panthera. Suggests successful claim could be worth $127m to LIT...

"Assuming US$750m gross settlement net proceeds after commission/expenses could be US$623m: On a net recovery basis, a claim for damages needs to take account of LCM’s commission and expenses. If we assume gross damages of US$750m or US$125/oz Au given resources of 6m oz, the net amount would be US$623m (£509m) based on commission of 15% (US$113m) and expenses of US$14m. In addition to a judgment for damages, we believe that the Republic of India would be subject to an interest penalty from the date of the original treaty transgression. It should be noted that both the gross and net estimate of damages is highly speculative at this stage."