Litigation Capital Manag... Share Discussion Threads

[dekle] 14/8/2024 08:15

I wonder where the price would be without the buybacks?

[williamcooper104] 13/8/2024 21:14

Yep that's nuts It's not like this is being bought for the divi so either reinvest/pay down debt or when it comes time to give back to equity (assuming that doesn't strain the balance sheet) then it's buy backs

[scubadiverr] 13/8/2024 20:21

Worse still IMO is the dividend. I'm having to give up 30% now due to being with iWeb. Would much rather they just bought back with current dividend pot and increase debt payments

[williamcooper104] 13/8/2024 17:22

As said when they started buying back Far better to strengthen the balance sheet and pay down the expensive debt

[nigelmoat] 13/8/2024 16:25

Well the share buybacks have done nothing for the share price. Wasn't expecting to see this level again.

[dekle] 13/8/2024 14:21

Lots of decent sells, hopefully still more cash for buybacks

[scubadiverr] 02/8/2024 09:24

Looks like someone was thinking along similar lines to me. Lots of decent buys since post. Wish it was me but unfortunately not

[nchanning] 02/8/2024 09:18

Yes the way LIT gets traded makes no sense , growth fears in the USA irrelevant , future borrowing cost down and stock multiples up all good news

[scubadiverr] 02/8/2024 08:54

A buying opportunity? Both BUR and LIT being hit hard it appears by US economy fears. Aren't counter cyclical businesses with assets that don't devalue due to the performance of an economy what we want right now?

[robertbarns1] 28/7/2024 15:47

more buybacks needed or we could see 100p top ups lol

[kpo115] 26/7/2024 15:52

That's good news. It's a real biggie isn't it?

[someuwin] 26/7/2024 15:24

PAT up 21% on news of their LIT funded claim.

[tourmaline44] 20/7/2024 13:53

I would add an extra reason as to why LIT comes out on top. It has by far the most effective and reputable Chief Executive in Patrick Moloney.

[johnwig] 20/7/2024 13:41

A major article in the Financial Times today about Third Party Litigation Finance. Out of three companies reviewed in detail, Manolete, Burford and LCM (LIT), LCM is chosen as the best investment. I totally agree with the author's judgment and the reasons she adduces. I hope people take notice, especially the troll(s) that used to infest the LIT threads.

[boozey] 20/7/2024 12:59

Interesting article thanks scuba

[scubadiverr] 20/7/2024 09:09

Relatively positive piece on LIT from the FThttps://archive.is/www.ft.com/content/5f285c90-7c44-4d1b-b1c4-29b834ade118

[johnwig] 17/7/2024 15:00

Thanks also to citywolf: an excellent post.

[citywolf1] 17/7/2024 14:35

Hi all - solid set of results, albeit slightly below par in H2. Of the 8 conclusions this FY, it seems like 2 or 3 were losses (reading between the lines there was one in 1H and seems like there are one or two in 2H).

The key drags in the year have been:

1) Slow rate of realisations (only 8 this year out of 53 cases) which you would expect to average more like 15+ per year based on portfolio size. Should pick up this year I expect
2) What appears to be a higher than average loss ratio this year, and these seem to have been skewed towards slightly larger investment sizes. I don't think we can read much into that because they seem to have been the older direct cases (if you look at the implied investment size of the losses) whereas the newer fund investments are doing well

However, looking forward we should hopefully see that effect reverse and see some more wins coming through from the older direct portfolio (which as you can see from the 2 win examples given in the update, have yielded c4x returns due to their age). Secondly as we transition into 100% fund coinvest it tilts more to our favour because the losses are small but the wins can be 8x+

The big pick up in funds committed is a great sign, because that is how the business will scale. Providing you maintain your underwriting standards, this business is all about feeding as much capital into the machine as quickly as you can

Based on the maturity profile of the cases and the number due to realise in the short to medium term, this coming FY could see a big increase in profits

[johnwig] 17/7/2024 09:44

Thanks again for that L2B. It's a privilege to have a rational response to today's news. I share your moderate optimism. I look forward to your response to the September 19 announcements.

[l2b] 17/7/2024 09:10

My expectations for 2HY were low given the low news flow so I would say results are in line.
Cash Profit is roughly flat-ish for 2HY (ex FV black box adj).
Couple of good individ returns but also looks like they had investment(s) below cost in 2HY - question for Patrick.
(I prefer the presentation by cases to the FV black box - allows SHs to analyse)

Good to see confirmation from LCM that IDA has "now reached a settlement".
The $11m GP almost covers the coming HY OPEX (on cash basis).
With news flow imminent (GRX, Katy Perry, Stanwell, etc) it should be a good half IMO.

New Commitments of >A$160m during 2HY (biggest ever, almost double 1HY).

[maddox] 17/7/2024 07:59

This update has focussed on case completions - the question for the finals will be the fair-valuation of in-flight cases.

[nchanning] 17/7/2024 07:26

Let's be clear , this was a slow period for LIT and profits will be modest this year . However this is all about the timing of case resolutions . Commitments are strong , MOIC remains solid and the new year started well . If you try to value LIT on single year profit outcomes you will trade it horribly ...

[solarno lopez] 17/7/2024 07:13

They are Maddox

[maddox] 17/7/2024 07:11

Great results but I think we're seeing why the Broker Forecasts are conservative - one case has slipped into the next period. With large lumpy cases and unpredictable timescales to completion - very difficult to be accurate - it's the nature of the business. Compensating for this the case performance metrics are excellent.

[dagoberia] 17/7/2024 06:25

Nice update