Litigation Capital Manag... Share Discussion Threads

[jackson83] 09/11/2021 08:56

FUNKY BOY buying again lol

[farnesbarnes] 09/11/2021 08:34

Clearly tipped somewhere - decent early volume.

[jackson83] 08/11/2021 23:30

we need buyers as without em we won't rise lol / shorting opportunity maybe as where is the news ? nothing expected

[adamb1978] 05/11/2021 21:30

Hi Hpcg

Understand the difference. I wouldnt say my 7p comment was necessarily a valuation, more just an increase to NAV....obviously you can then argue what p/NAV the company should trade on.

I do think though that this sort of debate is one of the challenges facing the company though, in that I think more people find it harder to value this business than a lot of other companies.

The trajectory is good and performance is consistent, but P&L performance will clearly be lumpy. I've said it before but I'd like to see them employ a more aggressively progressive dividend policy to get more shareholders into the company and therefore greater weight of buying. Dividend policy doesnt increase the value of the company per se, but I think its would push the share price up given it would draw more people in. Obviously at the moment with the funds being raised and their contributions to cases the chances of divis increasing in the short term is reduced though

Adam

[hpcg] 05/11/2021 13:11

I thought I would clarify my assertion that the win is worth "30-60p/s". Adam used a NAV based calculation to come up with 7p, whereas I am using a free cash flow model. His is additional to the existing NAV, and mine is a component of the current share price. In other words a repeat of the first thirds awards in the next two thirds of the year would justify the current share price for anyone who demands a 10% return on their money annually and who thinks that 2023, 24 etc will be the same as 2022.

At some point I will need to revise my model to give some value to the asset management arm. For now I am valuing at 0 and thus it provides a margin of safety.

[metis20] 05/11/2021 12:48

Thanks greenknight1 and hpcg for useful feedback.
Good to hear that Ian Lyall (Proactive link above) thinks that the market should be taking more notice of the recent "win".

[jackson83] 04/11/2021 23:10

get ready for the shorters lol

[jackson83] 04/11/2021 15:45

surprised this had held up so well today... LOTS SELL ON THE NEWS ...

[jackson83] 04/11/2021 14:01

WAIT FOR THE DIP TO 100P ... top up at 100p next week...

[makinbuks] 04/11/2021 13:27

Great to see that result today. The volume of cases maturing in the next year based on the 3 year to realisation rule is going to be a huge driver of the price

[winsome] 04/11/2021 13:16

I've sat on these for a few years now. Glad I'm now in profit. Decided to top up today and will so again while the market starts to wake up to their profit potential.

[hpcg] 04/11/2021 09:01

metis20 - I'm not sure why you have netted the revenue vs the direct cost? What other business would you do that for? The revenue is the revenue. To get the profit achieved by that case we must subtract the direct cost plus a share of the other costs over the duration of the case.

This case is worth 30-60p/s depending on what return one is looking for, how much one is prepared to pay for growth, and what one perceives to be the limit of that growth. At 30p one is paying for an approx 10% cash return P/A and assuming no growth.

[adamb1978] 04/11/2021 09:00

Thats abou 7p per share on NAV isnt it? £7m profit, and c.100m shares in issue

Share price up 3p

[hpcg] 04/11/2021 08:51

That result is inline or ahead of my model, as outlined in post 606.

Reminder, the current financial year is 30 June 2021 to 30 June 2022

I am looking for revenue of between A$66-100m and a case turnover of between 24-36 months. This case was towards the lower end of duration, and the two wins RNS'd so far this year amount to A$24m. The return metrics for this case are well above those required to cover costs and produce a 100% steady state profit.

The other obvious good news is that we have another court system producing revenue, which adds a good degree of confidence to hitting a mid-range revenue number. My steady state model, which actually tops out at A$100m revenue per year, is worth 250-500p/s, so looking good for a target price of 250p in June 2023.

[metis20] 04/11/2021 08:24

So that is revenue of GBP7m from one case.

2020 total revenue was US$38.4m

[blueball] 04/11/2021 07:06

Great news.

[someuwin] 04/11/2021 07:03

04 November 2021

4 November 2021

Litigation Capital Management Limited

("LCM" or the "Company")

Successful award in LCIA international arbitration

Litigation Capital Management Limited (AIM:LIT), an alternative asset manager specialising in dispute financing solutions internationally, announces the delivery of an award in favour of the funded party in an international arbitration, under the LCIA (London Court of International Arbitration) rules. The arbitration, seated in London and brought under the rules of the LCIA was for the determination of a construction dispute relating to a development in the Middle East.

This investment forms part of LCM's Direct Investment Portfolio and was 100% funded from balance sheet.

As a result of this award LCM has received approximately GBP9.8m (AUD$18.4m) in revenue, which includes the return of LCM's investment of GBP2.8m (AUD$5.1m). This investment generated ROIC on the investment of 255%, with an IRR of 195%. The life of this investment was 26 months.

Patrick Moloney, Chief Executive Officer of LCM, commented: "This successful Award is the realisation of one of the first investments which LCM entered into following the opening of its London office in 2018 and demonstrates the successful application of its underwriting process to an expanding range of investments both in terms of geography and claim type. This award is an excellent result for both LCM and our funded party."

[jackson83] 03/11/2021 20:17

looks like those that banked profits will be able to buy back under 100p soon ... this is unloved / nobody knows about it ... bottom draw for 12 months

[jackson83] 03/11/2021 08:07

will it be 130p soon or 100p ? we need buyers and news lol ... bottom draw for 12 months

[jackson83] 01/11/2021 19:37

need selling as no news expected

[jackson83] 28/10/2021 23:38

unloved or overbought now