Litigation Capital Manag... Share Discussion Threads

[farnesbarnes] 19/8/2021 15:01

FWIW: you should sub to Funky Finance on YT. He is a holder of LIT, and has high expectations a few years out.

[henwick] 19/8/2021 11:15

Other than this one of course!

[henwick] 19/8/2021 11:14

I am looking at LIT with a view to buying some shares. I really value good active boards and news threads from other committed shareholders. Can anyone recommend any good forums. Thanks.

[hpcg] 18/8/2021 14:56

I anticipate weakness for another 2-3 weeks with people wringing what they can out of the rest of the summer. It is the marginal transaction that sets the price and just lower volume creates a price drift as people manage their position, or in some cases worry about an information mismatch because "someone knows something". Or if there is a background seller that wants out for their own reasons.
On the flip side as people get back to their screens they will find assorted mini-caps with more than decent upside potential.

[greenknight1] 18/8/2021 14:49

There is support in this region. I will continue to add. I maintain a 200p target by the end of the year.

[bigalan3] 18/8/2021 13:59

I think I spoke too soon.

[greenknight1] 18/8/2021 11:00

Chart is suggesting a turn from here to the upside - this should be supported by the run up to results in September

[bigalan3] 18/8/2021 10:20

Looks like £1.00 might be the floor - I hope.
My daughter works for a Company in Australia and they are involved using
LIT in a class action.

[davr0s] 11/8/2021 17:07

We are not exactly lighting any fires atm here. Still I shall stick to the plan and keep holding

[robsy2] 11/8/2021 10:14

Thanks 74 tom. Excellent summary of the value on offer here.

[74tom] 11/8/2021 09:53

Excellent to see another case win, and one that provides further evidence that an average future MOIC of 2.5x is achievable.

As per the recent market update, there was A$105m of direct balance sheet capital committed capital at 30/06, plus a further A$76m of third party funds committed.

In recent presentations, a forward looking MOIC of between 2 and 2.5 has been used to illustrate how shareholder capital could grow over the next few years. I believe this is the best way to estimate the current value of LCM's pending cases.

Addressing the direct investment total of A$105m first, this translates into £55.7m

Applying a MOIC of 2 x gives these cases a valuation of £111.4m, whilst 2.5x gives £139.4m. I'm ignoring NPV as if cases settle in an average of 27 months, the impact of the time value of money is fairly minimal.

The average of these two figures aligns almost exactly to the current market cap of £120m...

Of course, this ignores the A$76m of third party funds committed to date.

Bottom line : today's market cap only just about covers the implied value of directly invested cases. There is no value in the price for third party fund 1 or the pending much larger second fund.

Key catalyst's to share price appreciation have to be;

- Launch of second fund
- Restart of dividend payments (even if only for 0.25p ish)
- Move of PM to London, although this looks unlikely to happen any time soon with Oz still struggling with Covid lockdowns

[johnwig] 11/8/2021 08:42

See today's pleasing announcement. Link above in header under 'News' below chart.

[bigalan3] 11/8/2021 08:37

When are the results tt?

[kpo115] 11/8/2021 08:33

Today's upturn is welcome. What does it signify? Miton overhang dissipated? Will it last?

[trotterstrading] 11/8/2021 08:14

Roll on results.. rerate just a matter of time IMO