Lightwaverf Share Discussion Threads

[clocktower] 01/7/2015 14:56

As you purchased more today, one can only assume you held others that you paid a much higher price for Nar1. As I said good luck with your investment but it is good to know that you are not put out if it goes the other way.

[clocktower] 01/7/2015 14:31

You seem upset Nar1, Are you exposed to more than you bargained for? If so good luck, I hope you recover from any losses you might suffer here.

[clocktower] 01/7/2015 14:10

Is it anything more than a dead cat bounce as others might be running for the door if the offer picks up to 30p - We shall see.

[nar1] 01/7/2015 13:49

Moving slightly higher.

[sinkyj] 01/7/2015 13:04

Let's hope the price bounces a little!! Once the uncertainty is out of the way, things will pick up.

[sinkyj] 01/7/2015 12:34

The expected shortfall is there.... Same as last year 300,000 loss. So 400,000 loss H2.That's one hell of a turnaround in 5 weeks. There quite simply isn't the cash in the bank to cover that.

So certainly it is a little strange, it should have been apparent in June that a substantially new link/hub was needed to provide HomeKit compatibility, and that India requires completely new tooling for sockets and switches, for technical and aesthetic reasons. Both these thing cannot happen overnight.

But, I can say again Havells(Silvania) and Apple opportunities are both huge,but both will need a large investment to enter, in new tooling and to stock.

[nar1] 01/7/2015 12:20

Clock tower - are you invested here or sitting on the fence ?

[clocktower] 01/7/2015 12:18

Maybe they will let you have as many as you want tomorrow alynch, and maybe even cheaper.

[alynch] 01/7/2015 12:16

Well, they wouldn't let me buy 5000 less than 29p (tried everything fill or kill between 28.5 and 29p)

[clocktower] 01/7/2015 12:14

Will full year losses be similar to 2014?

-- "Pre-tax losses substantially reduced to GBP0.30 million (2013: GBP0.81 million)"

Money was last raised at 40p at what level would they manage to raise new funds - maybe 20p?

Wonder what the debt situation will be as well?

[buggy] 01/7/2015 11:30

I am a bit curious as to what exactly happened.. was management taken by surprise ...meaning that they do not have their finger on the pulse of the business or were they just stretching the point in May 2015?

During the H1 results release towards the end of May 2015 , the management was trumpeting that they run rate of orders was at twice the same period last year.
1 month later they are telling us that sales has falling off the cliff and we are not going to make the market expectations?

"....Some of the products has required modifications and developments to enhance product capability ..."

Has this modification been carried out, hence sales expected to now return to normal, ( if this is what has been delaying uptake), or is the modifications still to be done?

By how much is management expecting in shortfall from market expectations? Surely they must have a projection or are we just managing from day to day without any forward forecast ....hopefully not.

[whoppy] 01/7/2015 11:18

What about Warwick University trial. They reckoned they were saving loads of money on the heating and energy bills etc, and that the data is very commercial/useful. A successful trial was seen to open up a lot opportunities. If the heating products aren't that great then how come the trial is successful??

[nar1] 01/7/2015 10:57

Megaman sales are progressing well. Drop seems to be over done IMO and I have topped up.

[sinkyj] 01/7/2015 09:56

Agree Buggy, I've said for sometime also that things needed to change, hopefully this is the trigger for that. That change/update/refresh in products will cost money, and they need to refresh the personnel also. The execution of what little strategy has been in place has been frankly pathetic, caused by a severe lack of understanding of the market from the management. Doing a lot too many things poorly, with too little money to spend on each project.

Almost certainly there will be a fund raising, just not got the cash in reserve and debts to pay. If you want my honest opinion, I think they've been told to release this as a precursor, so the market is under no false illusions. As I said the year end, the figures were to be polite, massaged, to represent an unrealistic profit by including multiple years claims of R&D credit for one.

The hidden little gem or more jam tomorrow, depending on your mood,is Havells. That's Silvanyia and Crabtree India. So entering the Indian market with one of the worlds biggest lighting suppliers is potentially huge and also very costly, needing to retool for a completely different electrical market.

Anyway you look at it though, it's one very badly worded news release.

[clocktower] 01/7/2015 09:54

mrx900 "The Company continues to successfully operate its zero working capital model." Do you think the model will have to change?

[buggy] 01/7/2015 09:30

I am not really surprised but did not want to dampen the enthusiasm and optimism of some of our posters here.

Have noted that the lead time for them to replenish stocks is getting longer: Vesternet has had the order for LED driver as in back order for over 2 months and we are still waiting for the supply to get to them. (Just one example).

The LightwaveRF_Plus range that were supposedly launched has not even made an appearance in the market.

A few distributors seem not to sock much of the range now as if they are just running down their last stock, ( since the last 3 months) [e.g. ebuyer; broadbandbuyer; DABS ], ...One distributor even had it as Clearance.

Sales-wise I have noticed an appreciable drop in sales traction ; judged by the number of new reviews placed on the LightwaveRF app in the Google Play store. ( unless of course they are buying,using the app and not bothering to place a Review.. which will be weird.( Only about 4 reviews in the last two months does not say we are having a roaring trade. At the initial stage we were getting about 4 reviews per day.)

My reading of it is that, for Lighting and power controls, we may have bottomed out with sales in UK and need sales from other countries. Secondly only a good heating product will drive the next step in sales growth in UK. This will also give other Utility providers an opportunity to compete with British Gas HIVE by offering the LightwaveRF product... as of now I do not think they have the level of confidence in the product to offer it to their client base. Currently the general view is that LWRF has a great product for lighting and power but stay away from the heating controls. Whether this is deserved , I can not say but in the end irrespective of what we think it is the customer that has the final say and just now they are voting with their feet.

Anyway I have been there and got the o prove it; not the first time this management has promised the earth and deliver scarcely anything. Which is really why I am not in the gang that believes everything the management says at face value. [ I did state even in the last accounts that profits was as a result of increase in profit margin and not related to sales traction growth.]
The signs of decline has been there for a while, the question is do they know what to do to arrest this decline or are they just trashing in the dark?

There is still an opportunity and a market for this type of products .. but like everything not all brilliant idea becomes successful business. It all depends on the execution of the management as I said about 2 years ago. If they don't have a solid plan and execute faultlessly, we will soon become irrelevant I the market.... we have already lost our first mover advantage.

NOTE:
This is just my objective assessment of where we are. There is still a window of opportunity, so even though I am disappointed I am not selling up, ( besides I have too many to sell up just like that).

[nar1] 01/7/2015 09:27

Clock tower - are you invested here or sitting on the fence ?

[mrx9000] 01/7/2015 09:25

I probably suspect looking at cashflow and capital that they will also perhaps need to do a fund raising as well.

[clocktower] 01/7/2015 09:15

As they watch the share price sink, they only have themselves to blame as either the RNS is poorly worded or it has been worded poorly to hide the extent of the problem which they might be trying to paper over to some extent. How big a hit will the share price take when the results for the year are announced?

[kevc09] 01/7/2015 09:03

The 'some of these', I would say, refers to the existing and new customer relationships. Best case would obviously be Homekit, or maybe just dabbling with the RF protocol to make our devices work with other controllers or vice versa.

[whoppy] 01/7/2015 08:56

I think the management and the board need modifying and developing.

[clocktower] 01/7/2015 08:54

Maybe your one of the lucky ones kevc90 because they must have costly problems to sort out before the end of the year if the share price is even likely to start to recover. I guess there will be big red lines in the accounts to cover the problems that are likely to damage the share price even further.

[whoppy] 01/7/2015 08:53

"The company continues to make significant progress with existing and new customer relationships and its sales proposition. Some of these have required modifications and developments to enhance product capability which in the short term is holding back revenue"

What does this exactly mean. The RNS is not clear. The English is poor. Some of these?? Are they referring to some of the customers and the way they want to use the products and they need to modify / develop the products to enhance capability for those customers?? Or do they need to modify develop the products generally for all customers? It's a bit late to realise the products need modifying. The products are supposed to have all been tested and scrutinised before entering the market. What's exactly wrong with them if anything? They all get good user reviews. I wish they would be more clear in the wording of their RNS's. It's so important that when you are informing the market you are clear and detailed. Bottom line is they are not going to make a profit for whatever reason.