Longboat Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bumpa33] 23/11/2023 07:24

Operational update out, Helge using some very bullish language there, another investor meet next Tuesday…

"The timing of our entry into the SE Asia region has been excellent given the exceptionally active M&A market. We are excited about the many and varied opportunities available to us and with our highly experienced team and excellent relationships. We are confident that we will deliver considerable growth and create substantial shareholder value in the period ahead."

[darcon] 23/11/2023 06:09

Also interesting is that Japex recently announced on 20 Nov 23 progress on their carbon capture project with Petronas in Malaysia:

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LBE has a JV with Japex in Norway. LBE's partner on Block 2A (Kertang prospect) in Malaysia and in which LBE are operator is Petronas. If Japex and Petronas are working on other projects together in Malaysia that ought to make it easier for Japex to one day consider expanding its efforts in Malaysia to potentially funding an exploration drill there with LBE and Petronas, and also "green" the project with appropriate carbon offsetting or capture.

[darcon] 23/11/2023 05:47

There were a few mentions of Longboat Energy PLC and Longboat JAPEX Norge AS (the JV vehicle) in Japex's presentation dated 10 Nov 23 on its financial results for the six months ended 30 Sept 23:



There's nothing material here of which we're not aware from LBE RNSs.

In the section of their presentation titled "Major Business Progress in the First Half of FY3//24 Japex mention "Capital participation in a subsidiary of U.K.-based Longboat Energy PLC (Longboat JAPEX Norge AS : LBJ) which promotes exploration and development in offshore Norway (May)"

In Japex's business overview in section 6 of their slide deck they have a separate row in their table covering for their "Norway: Offshore Blocks (Longboat Japex Norge AS)" JV with LBE. They describe it as "Exploration/Development".

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So the only takeaway I think here is that Japex regard their LBE JV in Norway as "major business" for them, and they've positioned the JV in their business strategy section as something they'll report on separately in the future.

[bumpa33] 21/11/2023 21:06

Fund to Fund Jeanesy, Investec don’t make a market in LBE…

[jeanesy] 21/11/2023 18:47

what about the 190k transfers then .. buys?

[bumpa33] 21/11/2023 13:26

Stiffel (house broker) and Peel Hunt both bidding 100k over mid, Cavendish (joint house) 36k over mid, Marex have some stock available at 19, after that it’s 19.6. Investec did the business in the 600k transfers yesterday. Is there something on the horizon…

[ripvanwinkle3] 17/11/2023 12:02

Not sure if many picked up on the fact that it seems like the very large Carmen discovery announced over the summer (DNO, Wellesley) extends into Longboat's Kveikje licence area. It's something they touched on in a recent presentation. Could be significant.

[hubs] 17/11/2023 11:25

Just picked up 2k worth for 20.30, this should be a great price one day...gla.

[sogoesit] 16/11/2023 17:14

Something has leaked, for sure...

[bumpa33] 16/11/2023 13:43

To get to something like fair value here and now the company could do with upping its IR/PR a bit perhaps but I really liked the new guy from Topaz, really put the investment case into view with enthusiasm and made it easy to grasp the enormity and scope for the layman. Helge and Co are pretty ‘dry’ in comparison , mkt needs to be excited, at least a bit. Not suggesting they go down the UPL path or anything..!

[zengas] 16/11/2023 13:24

40p would still be only £22m m/cap.

Between Kveijke & Oswig for the JV there could be 6-14 mmboe recoverable on those 2 discoveries alone.

Oswig South to drill next year along with Lotus.

Oswig South could double the numbers and an analogue to the adjacent Tune field that's produced 140 mmboe.

The 2 small initial producing assets estimated to double to 600 boepd enough to run the company as is. $100m of Japex funding for further Norwegian acquisitions.

Would expect £50m m/cap at least to be achievable from operations in Norway alone.

Build a seperate arm in South East Asia on production deals there etc with the blue sky potential of Block 2A.

[chutes01] 16/11/2023 12:45

Prod deal for LBE/JAPEX to be released, Norway/Malaysia behemoth in the making,just too cheap at these levels
Chart looking up at 40p

[ripvanwinkle3] 16/11/2023 10:59

The accumulation continues. When the stale and overexposed cease selling, it really doesn't take much buying at all to propel these upwards from this lowly share price

[piperpeter] 15/11/2023 14:25

May interest a few here...

MEN's Paraguay oil exploration well surely now must be very close to spudding.

260mmbbls of Pmean unrisked resources.

Cavendish's opinion from the Morning Note 25 October...

"The prospects have a fairly low 17% geological chance of success, but still offers very significant upside in the success case. Assuming a 5% recovery factor, we estimate the unrisked NPV of the Delray prospects is >$100m (>£8/sh) net to MEN".

Market cap GBP 8.9 million.
86p current share price.
10.6 million Shares in issue.

Pp.

[bumpa33] 13/11/2023 07:22

Good post ZENGAS, It’s simply a waiting game, there’s a lot of value out there in this depressed mkt but imo none more so than here…

[darcon] 13/11/2023 07:06

FT article about more trouble in the LNG market, this time from a commercial LNG investment and supply dispute:



Some excerpts:

"Shell and BP have asked Washington and Brussels to intervene in a bitter dispute with Venture Global LNG, warning the company’s refusal to honour a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas supply contracts threatens Europe’s energy security.

In correspondence seen by the Financial Times, the oil majors accuse the US LNG provider of “misconduct” for withholding cargo agreed under long-term supply contracts and instead selling LNG on the spot market."

"The supermajors, alongside Spain’s Repsol and Italy’s Edison, are among several foundation customers embroiled in contract arbitration with Venture Global. Foundation customers agree long-term contracts that help LNG providers attract financing to build their projects."

"Venture Global’s first LNG facility, Calcasieu Pass, located on the Gulf coast in Louisiana, commenced producing LNG in January 2022 and exported its first cargo two months later. But the company argues it has not yet started full commercial operations and is not obliged to supply foundation customers until the commissioning is completed.

It has declared “force majeure” on its contractual commitments on the grounds that the facility’s power supply equipment needs repair.

Shell said the company’s excuse does not withstand scrutiny, as the facility has delivered more than 200 cargo shipments to customers. The nearly 600-day commissioning period for Calcasieu Pass defies industry standards, it added."

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In my view the longer-term consequences of this dispute will be (1) LNG investors/buyers will tighten up their contract terms in negotiations on LNG investments (2) LNG customers will seek the advantages of being part owners of LNG producers and will want more influence on the corporate governance decision-making of the relevant LNG operator.

So it's another tailwind for attracting partners for exploration drilling on LBE's multi-TCF Malaysian Kertang prospect. LBE is currently operator for the Kertang block.

[darcon] 12/11/2023 10:06

Link to today’s FT article about implications on the LNG market of US sanctions on the operator of Russia’s LNG-2 project:



Some excerpts:

“in early November, the US State Department announced sanctions on a new Russian development known as Arctic LNG 2 — in effect blocking countries in Europe and Asia from buying the project’s gas when it starts producing next year, according to officials, lawyers and analysts.”
[…]
“The investors in Arctic LNG 2 are able to take gas from the project according to their shareholding. For Total and its partners in the joint venture, that would mean about 2mn tons when the project is at full production. But under the sanctions, shareholders have until the end of January next year to wind down their investments.”

“a Japanese joint venture between trading house Mitsui & Co and government-backed Jogmec, each [hold] 10 per cent stakes”

“The US has not directly targeted Russia’s other major LNG projects, Yamal LNG and Sakhalin 2, which are shipping the fuel to Europe and Asia.”

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As I have mentioned before the above situation creates a favourable tailwind for attracting partners for exploration drilling on LBE’s Malaysian Kertang prospect.

[ripvanwinkle3] 10/11/2023 15:06

Great post ZENGAS. I've been onboard here a while, and very excited about Kertang. Expecting the market will wake up to this at some point..

[ohisay] 10/11/2023 13:17

Absolutely re UPL. If there was ever a stock defying gravity ...

Im old enough to remember being in Cove too .!

LBE my largest position .
You never know whats going to turn up here with that cash cushion for deals.

[zengas] 10/11/2023 12:54

To have 52.5% of a 12,000 km2 block of this size with over 6,000 km2 of 3D seismic not to mention 17,500 km lines of 2D is phenomenal.

The cost to carry out that amount of seismic would run into the tens of $millions alone along with the extensive geochemistry work confirming very high concentrations of methane and low CO2. That can't be understated.

At about 17 mins into the interview James Menzies says they beleive there could be in excess of 9 TCF recoverable for Kertang.

At 18:30 he states that 'there are multiple structures surrounding Kertang that are also extremely big - it's just that they are dwarfed by this giant.'

When you refer back to the Topaz slides particularly page 6 you can see '3 main identified prospects' which includes Kertang. The two other structures are in very close proximity to Kertang with the other 2 combined having an area roughly the size of Kertang itself. All 3 are covered by 2,900 km2 of 3D seismic.

Given the analogue description to the smaller 6 TCF Kasawari field - taking into account the 3 main structures, there could well be potential for 15+ TCF recoverable here.

Retaining 10-20% post farmout would be potentially huge given a ready gas market.

Not since Cove acquired 8.5% offshore Rovuma from struggling Artumas in 2009 has there been an opportunity as big imo.

Their share price was 9p in 2009. If you were patient, Dolmens Brian Gallagher called it a speculative buy on tues 9th March 2010 and a target of 59p.

By the time Shell had bid in Feb 2012 there was an estimated 20+ tcf recoverable estimated. Shell bid $1.8b while PTTEP of Thailand pipped them with a $1.9b takeout at 240p post tax.

Coves 8.5% share of 20-30 TCF = 1.7 - 2.55 TCF.

Reataining 10-20% of block 2A for LBE could mean on the 3 prospects covered by 3D, there might be 1.5 - 3 TCF net to play for.



14/3/12
'Cove said it was “delighted to note” that Anadarko had announced “an increase of the P90 (Proven) estimated recoverable gas resource of the gas discovery area by another 2 Trillion cubic feet (Tcf). The gas discovery area is now estimated to contain 17 to 30 plus (Tcf) of recoverable gas”.

At Wednesday’s early trading price of 209.75p (up 0.75p), the market cap in US$ is just over $1.6bn. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. The shares last month touched a high of 283p – giving a market cap of $2.16bn – before reports that the Mozambique authorities might tax the deal.'
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At this price LBE is well underpinned by what it has already and with a few upcoming deals both in Norway and S.E Asia, this has to be one of the best opportunities around with patience. If this was coming to market on the basis of just Block 2A as an only asset i'd have thought it would have been in the £50m-£75m price range alone.

UPL mentioned earlier - but there's no PSC yet, no 3D which will be needed at some point and no estimate of recoverable resources (no 3D again which would help), no other assets of strength, no cash and at 2.75p carrying a m/cap of £32.5m compared to here underpinned by assets and in no doubt with forthcoming deals via Japex supplying it with the $100m of cash for such.

[darcon] 10/11/2023 10:44

Auctus Advisors currently have a core NAV of £0.31 and a ReNAV of £0.57 on LBE.

Auctus's calculations currently do not include the Kertang prospect. It will be interesting to see what Auctus's risked and unrisked estimated values will be once the Kertang prospect is properly defined by the LBE team for farm-out purposes. Will Auctus offer up some estimated values when the Topaz acquisition is completed or will Auctus wait until LBE provide further information about the prospect or later upon farm-out?

In their September 28th note Auctus among others wrote:

"The cash consideration to be paid by Longboat Norge for interests in Sygna and Statfjord Øst on completion is expected to be near the headline price of US$12.75 mm announced in July. In the interim period until completion, a five well infill programme has been undertaken to double production to 600 boe/d net to Longboat Norge.

• Overall, we forecast that Longboat plc will hold ~£4 mm in cash at YE23. The repayment of £32 mm of exploration financing facility held by Longboat Norge due in November will be repaid from the £35 mm Norwegian Government tax rebate due at the same time.

• The Lotus exploration well is expected to be drilled in 2024. This is the remaining high impact well of the programme with an unrisked NAV of £0.22 per share.

• We re-iterate our target price of £0.60 per share.

• The shares continue to trade well below the value of the business based on the Kveikje discovery and Statfjord Øst & Sygna only.

[ohisay] 10/11/2023 02:31

Interesting comparison there between Kertang and Kasawari ,

Kasawari discovery under field development by PETRONAS (post FID); approx. 6 TCF & column height in excess of 1,000m; due onstream at 900 mmscf/d

Quite why UPL is 3 times the market cap of LBE when they are basically a one trick pony without the support of the likes of Japex is beyond me .

[sogoesit] 09/11/2023 10:31

Makes sense imv. Deep pockets will be needed for Kertang and Japex have that.

[ohisay] 06/11/2023 03:27

Indeed re Kertang..Japex have already been partnering with Petronas on Carbon Storage projects since last year.