Longboat Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jailbird] 10/12/2023 16:41

that forecast value, surely it is not as simple as that is it?

[ohisay] 10/12/2023 16:02

My figuring..
Resource Kertang 8 to 10 tcf gas prospect...OK 9 tcf equivalent to 1500m boe.
Assume 50% recoverable...750m boe
Assume 40% COS....300m boe.
Assume LBE farm down 37.5% for a free carry leaving them 15%.
15% of 300m boe is 45m boe.
Gas prospect worth 2 to 3$ per boe say 2.5$/boe.

45m boe is then worth 112m$ or £90m.
£90m divided by 57m shares is 160p per share.

QED ..Happy to wait to be proved wrong or right ...
GLA!

[bumpa33] 10/12/2023 10:39

Offshore Sarawak is rapidly turning into one of THE global O&G exploration hotspots… our turn will surely come…

[ohisay] 09/12/2023 01:45

Like shooting fish in a barrel it seems.

What is the possibility now of Kertang not being farmed out next year ?
Pretty small I'd say ..
Time for the brokers to start factoring that into their spreadsheets then.
Its not objectively defensible to ignore it anymore though I guess they may be waiting for some guidance from LBE early next year.
Not impossible to conservatively add circa 150p+ per share at a risked farmed out level I'd say...based on my figuring .

[euclid5] 08/12/2023 20:06

Excellent post Zengas, thank you

[wanobi] 08/12/2023 15:31

great post ZG,, many thanx for sharing your experience with those of us still learning how to make LT investing work for us,, your wisdom is much appreciated by me :-) :-) Cheers Wan :-) :-)

[nigelpm] 08/12/2023 15:28

Simply put at 18p this is fundamentally cheap on many levels.

[bumpa33] 08/12/2023 15:01

UPL is a special case, from a team well schooled in “special cases” - if one can’t read the irony and sarcasm in that statement I’ll clarify - there’s huge amounts of both.

Patience with LBE in a tough market is required… JAPEX deal came outta left field, I suspect there’ll be more of that ilk, when however is the question…

[zengas] 08/12/2023 14:42

Does anybody even bother to put pen to paper anymore in sussing out, valuing the assets and potential on hand instead of chasing something thats not underpinned just because they think the action is somewhere else right now ?? (but good luck to them).

They're paying over 10 times the price at UPL compared to a year ago and 7 times the last placing barely 8 months ago.

UPL no psc awarded yet for the 45% study of the 6700 km2 SK334. Little cash, no 3D seismic to help define any prospects. They've signed letters of intent only for a rig but that wouldn't instill confidence in me where they're going to stick a hole whenever the PSC is awarded and at what percentage they end up with or if they farm out reducing the as yet unknown prize.

At 4.3p valued today at £51m - what is there to fall back on if the first drill fails ? PIs neither know at this minute what the prize on offer is and what they might farm out to hold on to ?

At least LBE are underpinned on the assets they have. They may have access up to $200m of financing in Norway. A company like Japex doesn't get involved without dd and some level of comfort.

The initial acquisition for the JV will have one year of contributions from the effective transaction date of 1/1/23.

"Based on Longboat Norge's internal estimates, at current commodity price levels the Transaction is anticipated to reach payback in under two years".

"the Transaction is expected to unlock material tax synergies within Longboat Norge associated with historic corporation tax losses"

Around 600 boepd is expected shortly.
They paid $8.20 per P2 barrel.

Based on using $50m of the ($100m) JAPEX funding and $50m subordinated debt they could realistically pick up over 12 mmboe P2 and 4,500 boepd to give about 20 mmboe in the JV and around 5k boepd in total and maybe with a similar pay back of which they could go again as its a 5 year facility and thats only looking at using half those funds.

What will 'punters', 'herdsmen' or investors think when they see 9 TCF estimated recoverable for Kertang in an exploration hot spot, gas coming from the structure and amplitude brights and covered by 3D when it draws closer.

There's 2 other prospects half the size also covered by 3D - imo maybe 3TCF each which could likely bring it up to 15 TCF but there are multiple prospects all over the block.

They've got 52.5% and in the recent interview they expected a farm down where a partner would be seeking 25-30% and if so would leave LBE with 20% minimum - a 3 TCF/500 mmboe prize or some $1.5b of potential at $3/boe or versus 56.7m shares now or even 100m down the road - possibly a tenner a share if that came in but at least the risk is backed up by the assets/production we currently have and will have - that i think could value us well in excess of £2 from Norway on its own.

The unknown is the financing of new production deals in S.E Asia but again a JV route may be the way to go as they've stated they intend to minimise shareholder dilution.

In essence not just one prize on offer for LBE!

Just because the share price is tooing and froing a penny here and there - over 51% is held by directors and institutions and how many HNWs hold a fair few ? - meaning the real free float is very low and that is the real reason for a buy and hold strategy once you have them.

UPL has a m/cap of £51m - LBE £10m. I know where the greatest risk reward lies. At current valuations, one's a punt the others a measured approach when it comes to risk reward imo.

[sogoesit] 08/12/2023 12:44

Yep, it's no wonder that companies prefer to list in the US (like DEC etc.) with the mentality of punters (not investors) here in the UK.

Not to mention that the marxist politicians are hell-bent on banning fossil fuels so that they get the "bezzle" and the poor get poorer.
(Luckily today the temperature is above 8degC... my threshold for turning the heating on when it goes below that. Personally, in these circumstances, I look forward to more global warming to the benefit of the northern hemisphere. Still, if death awaits us all in 2035, now postponed to 2050, who cares.)

AIMO

[sphere25] 08/12/2023 11:49

How many AIM/high risk gamblers are left too?

The AIM index clearly says alot. Just that sort of continued market too isn't it - ignore any bullish news and continue to focus on cash flow and financing, even if LBE state they are not keen on raising equity.

More a matter of survival for most really. Market is hell bent on a continued systematic annihilation in the more speculative areas.

Stuck it on the list to watch to see if the market did want to come in and buy big ----> nooooopeeee....no sir-eeeee!

Same drill with most of these sorts...little mark ups, dribs and drabs of buying, before the big sellers come in and weigh down the price. The bullish news has to be absolutely mega and transformational to really push on.

Those short term euphoric trading opportunities in these sorts are so limited nowadays. It is almost a one way street downwards. Partly explains why these boards are so quiet too. Keep getting this kind of bruising and it must be really hard to come on here with optimism.

Total individual trades: 15
Total volume: 291k

DEAD!

All imo
DYOR

[katsy] 08/12/2023 09:00

Just can't please some AiM gamblers. Why would you sell on that news.

[nigelpm] 08/12/2023 07:33

Nice farm down. Continued deal making from team.

[lisat3] 08/12/2023 07:32

RNS - with sensible strategy....

0(^_^)/~~

[ohisay] 08/12/2023 02:15

Agree - important not to overpay for deals.

[ripvanwinkle3] 07/12/2023 10:40

Jeez, the selling continues! 100k yesterday, 50k already today. Not many making money selling at these prices. Bonkers.. Anyway, softening of oil prices good for Longboat as they seek development and production deals, as mentioned by HH in recent interview.

[ohisay] 06/12/2023 13:16

You have to laugh at UPL capitalised at 40m£ on a wing and a prayer .
As Zengas mentioned If LBE had the same market cap it would be 70p/share.

Of course thats why we are all happy to be here and adding on on any weakness.
Well I speak mainly for myself of course but its evident there are many others here who see this as a great value proposition atm.

[ohisay] 04/12/2023 13:44

PETRONAS Senior Vice President of Malaysia Petroleum Management (MPM), Mohamed Firouz Asnan said, 'This significant exploration success validates our belief that there is more potential within the so-called matured Malaysia’s basins, using new 3D seismic data and the latest software technologies to better detect deeper hydrocarbon potentials.'

'We fully support our partners’ adoption of new exploration strategies which focus on near-field potential, that will enable quicker monetisation of the discoveries. This is crucial in meeting the rising energy demand not just in Malaysia but also to countries in the region. MPM will be launching the next series of the Malaysia Bid Round early next year, offering more exploration blocks and discovered resources opportunities to potential investors. The strong support from producing states as well as the federal government has been crucial in the success of the country’s resource base growth,' he added.

[zengas] 04/12/2023 13:33

AssetCo owns both SVM and River & Mercantile.

Looks like SVMs 8.6% disposal on Friday were moved to River & Mercantile within the group who now hold the 8.6%.

A great vote of confidence.

Meanwhile o/topic UPL at 3.3p now £40m m/cap on the back of SK344 equivalent to 70p for LBE which has the benefit of $25-$30m of 3D on block 2A and a specified 9 TCF (1.5 bboe) for just 1 of "multiple prospects all over it" (last weeks investor update).

[chutes01] 01/12/2023 16:13

ready to move up now

[bumpa33] 01/12/2023 16:04

SVM to zero probably explains those two batches of fund to fund transfers recently 3x500k and 3x600k, handled by Investec. May also explain too why Marex had stock…

[zengas] 01/12/2023 14:31

AssetCo: an undervalued asset manager rising to inflexion point

Like professional sport, asset management is a 'results orientated' game – that is currently polarising between low cost, index hugging trackers at one end vs specialist active fund managers at the other.

AssetCo (ASTO)

(Mrkcap £53.5m at 35p), led by accomplished industry veteran Martin Gilbert (Exec Chair and founder of Aberdeen Asset Mgt) falls squarely into the latter camp.

Indeed at the last count in Mar '23, its wholly owned Assets Under Management (AuM) had climbed to £3.2bn (£13.8bn incl. Parmenion’s £10.6bn) - after completing a series of acquisitions (e.g. River and Mercantile, Saracen, ReVera Capital, SVM Asset Management Limited and Ocean) since being created in Apr '21.

Sure this hard work hasn’t yet been reflected in the beaten-down share price. Albeit equally for canny risk tolerant investors, the undervaluation offers opportunity, especially as AssetCo appears to have reached an inflexion point.

In fact, despite being forecast by Panmure Gordon to be marginally loss making in FY '24 (y/e Sept) - ASTO is on track to become profitable (PBT £3.2m) and cash generative in FY '25 on sales of £18.8m. Plus, augmented by a bullet proof balance sheet (Mar '23 net cash of £20.6m, or 14p/share), the Board has ample firepower to pay a 1.3p dividend (£1.85m), whist similarly executing its 'Buy & Build' and organic growth strategies.

Ok, so putting all this together, how much is ASTO worth?

Well clearly it’s impossible to say precisely due to the rapidly expanding nature of the group. However, as an indication, Panmure Gordon & Singer Capital Markets both have BUY ratings on the stock with Target Prices of 97p and 130p respectively.

[zengas] 01/12/2023 14:25

SVM were bought over for around £11m last year by AssetCo. £9m in loan notes and under £2m in cash. It was founded and run by Colin McClean and Margaret Lawson. He became a director of AssetCo. They had about £550m under management last year and underwent a restructuring. Had a profit of under £150k to March 2022.

Margaret Lawson retired from SVM in Sptember 2023 and McClean i think stepping back earlier in the summer with Neil Veitch recently taking on the role at SVM as lead manager. Not sure what fund is which but one SVM fund was ranked at 184 out of 200 or therabouts not that long ago.

With a new manager in i'm not that surprised they'd restructure or put their own stamp on the fund holdings. The good thing is that someone has bought them and to me it's no reflection on the merits of LBE going forward given the 2 strategic deals with Japex and Topaz since May and September.

[ripvanwinkle3] 01/12/2023 12:28

SVM are listed as holding 8.6% of the shares on the LBE website. Now gone. Kudos to whoever it was that said recently they thought there was a drip seller keeping the share price subdued

[jailbird] 01/12/2023 12:11

I always take target prices with a pinch of salt Some notes repeat the same price for 2-3 years even if the company is growing.So What is the target date for this target price of 60p